Mobility is undergoing dramatic transformations. Especially in the context of urban areas, several significant changes are underway, driven by both new mobility needs and environmental concerns. The most mature one, which still is struggling to affirm itself is the process of the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs), thus switching from fuel-based to battery-powered propulsion technologies. Many social and economic barriers have proved to play a crucial role in this process, ranging from level of education, environmental awareness, age and census. This work aims at contributing to the study of this adoption process through a data-based lens, using real mobility patterns to setup a social-network analysis to model the spread of consensus among neighbouring people that can enable the switch to EVs. In particular, we build the network topology using proximity measures that emerge from the analysis of real trips, and the initial disposition of the single agents towards the EV technology is inferred from their real mobility patterns. Based on this network, a cascade adoption model is simulated to investigate the dynamics of the adoption process, and an incentive scheme is designed to show how different policies can contribute to the opinion diffusion over time on the network.
The collective behaviour of people adopting an innovation, product or online service is commonly interpreted as a spreading phenomenon throughout the fabric of society. This process is arguably driven by social influence, social learning and by external effects like media. Observations of such processes date back to the seminal studies by Rogers and Bass, and their mathematical modelling has taken two directions: One paradigm, called simple contagion, identifies adoption spreading with an epidemic process. The other one, named complex contagion, is concerned with behavioural thresholds and suc…
Social identities are among the key factors driving behavior in complex societies. Signals of social identity are known to influence individual behaviors in the adoption of innovations. Yet the population-level consequences of identity signaling on the diffusion of innovations are largely unknown. Here we use both analytical and agent-based modeling to consider the spread of a beneficial innovation in a structured population in which there exist two groups who are averse to being mistaken for each other. We investigate the dynamics of adoption and consider the role of structural factors such a…
Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specif…
Adoption processes in socio-technological systems have been widely studied both empirically and theoretically. The way in which social norms, behaviors, and even items such as books, music, or other commercial or technological product spread in a population is usually modeled as a process of social contagion, in which the agents of a social system can infect their neighbors on the underlying network of social contacts. More recently, various models have also been proposed to reproduce the typical dynamics of a process of discovery, in which an agent explores a space of relations between ideas …
Different measures have been proposed to predict whether individuals will adopt a new behavior in online social networks, given the influence produced by their neighbors. In this paper, we show one can achieve significant improvement over these standard measures, extending them to consider a pair of time constraints. These constraints provide a better proxy for social influence, showing a stronger correlation to the probability of influence as well as the ability to predict influence.
Social media is subject to constant growth and evolution, yet little is known about their early phases of adoption. To shed light on this aspect, this paper empirically characterizes the initial and country-wide adoption of a new type of social media in Saudi Arabia that happened in 2017. Unlike established social media, the studied network Jodel is anonymous and location-based to form hundreds of independent communities country-wide whose adoption pattern we compare. We take a detailed and full view from the operators perspective on the temporal and geographical dimension on the evolution of …
Many products and innovations become well-known and widely adopted through the social interactions of individuals in a population. The Bass diffusion model has been widely used to model the temporal evolution of adoption in such social systems. In the model, the likelihood of a new adoption is proportional to the number of previous adopters, implicitly assuming a global (or homogeneous) interaction among all individuals in the network. Such global interactions do not exist in many large social networks, however. Instead, individuals typically interact with a small part of the larger population…
Time-varying community structures widely exist in various real-world networks. However, the spreading dynamics on this kind of network has not been fully studied. To this end, we systematically study the effects of time-varying community structures on social contagions. We first propose a non-Markovian social contagion model on time-varying community networks based on the activity driven network model, in which an individual adopts a behavior if and only if the accumulated behavioral information it has ever received reaches a threshold. Then, we develop a mean-field theory to describe the prop…
The Susceptibility Paradox in Online Social Influence
Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California（南加州大学信息科学研究所）；Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California（南加州大学托马斯·洛德计算机科学系）
The urban-rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million frie…
Internet communication channels, e.g., Facebook, Twitter, and email, are multiplex networks that facilitate interaction and information-sharing among individuals. During brief time periods users often use a single communication channel, but then communication channel alteration (CCA) occurs. This means that we must refine our understanding of the dynamics of social contagions. We propose a non-Markovian behavior spreading model in multiplex networks that takes into account the CCA mechanism, and we develop a generalized edge-based compartmental method to describe the spreading dynamics. Throug…
Understanding adoption patterns of smartphones is of vital importance to telecommunication managers in today's highly dynamic mobile markets. In this paper, we leverage the network structure and specific position of each individual in the social network to account for and measure the potential heterogeneous role of peer influence in the adoption of the iPhone 3G. We introduce the idea of core/periphery as a meso-level organizational principle to study the social network, which complements the use of centrality measures derived from either global network properties (macro-level) or from each in…
Information diffusion and disease spreading in communication-contact layered network are typically asymmetrically coupled with each other, in which how an individual being aware of disease responds to the disease can significantly affect the disease spreading. Many recent studies have demonstrated that human behavioral adoption is a complex and non-Markovian process, where the probability of adopting one behavior is dependent on the cumulative times of the received information and the social reinforcement effect of these cumulative information. We study the impact of such a non-Markovian vacci…
A great deal of effort has gone into trying to model social influence --- including the spread of behavior, norms, and ideas --- on networks. Most models of social influence tend to assume that individuals react to changes in the states of their neighbors without any time delay, but this is often not true in social contexts, where (for various reasons) different agents can have different response times. To examine such situations, we introduce the idea of a timer into threshold models of social influence. The presence of timers on nodes delays the adoption --- i.e., change of state --- of each…
Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis…
Social networks play a fundamental role in the diffusion of innovation through peers' influence on adoption. Thus, network position including a wide range of network centrality measures have been used to describe individuals' affinity to adopt an innovation and their ability to propagate diffusion. Yet, social networks are assortative in terms of susceptibility and influence and in terms of network centralities as well. This makes the identification of influencers difficult especially since susceptibility and centrality does not always go hand in hand. Here we propose the Top Candidate algorit…
Social aspects of connectivity and information dispersion are often ignored while weighing the potential of Internet of Things (IoT). In the specialized domain of Internet of Vehicles (IoV), Social IoV (SIoV) is introduced realization its importance. Assuming a more commonly acceptable standardization of Big Data generated by IoV, the social dimensions enabling its fruitful usage remains a challenge. In this paper, an agent-based model of information sharing between vehicles for context-aware recommendations is presented. The model adheres to social dimensions as that of human society. Some im…
This paper examines the role of community animators in technology adoption. Community animators are individuals that actively build social networks and broker ties between nodes in those networks. The present study observes technology adoption patterns through data collected from a mobile application at a local arts festival. A social network was constructed through photo-sharing and interaction within the app. Given this data, we propose the use of key player analysis to identify community animators. In addition, we use a graph invariant (i.e., fragmentation in the network) to describe the ro…
SK Innovation（SK创新）；Konkuk University（建国大学）；Korea Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术研究院）
Recent extensively competitive business environment makes companies to keep their eyes on social media, as there is a growing recognition over customer languages (e.g., needs, interests, and complaints) as source of future opportunities. This research avenue analysing social media data has received much attention in academia, but their utilities are limited as most of methods provide retrospective results. Moreover, the increasing number of customer-generated contents and rapidly varying topics have made the necessity of time-aware topic evolution analyses. Recently, several researchers have s…
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Influence maximization (IM) has garnered a lot of attention in the literature owing to applications such as viral marketing and infection containment. It aims to select a small number of seed users to adopt an item such that adoption propagates to a large number of users in the network. Competitive IM focuses on the propagation of competing items in the network. Existing works on competitive IM have several limitations. (1) They fail to incorporate economic incentives in users' decision making in item adoptions. (2) Majority of the works aim to maximize the adoption of one particular item, and…
