忽视不确定性会使房屋标高决策产生偏差，从而管理河流洪水风险
Neglecting Uncertainties Biases House-Elevation Decisions to Manage Riverine Flood Risks
摘要：
世界各地的房主都在加高房屋以管理洪水风险。决定把房子加高多少是一个重要的决策问题。美国联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）建议将现有房屋提升到基准洪水高度（100年一遇洪水的高度）加上干舷。这一建议忽略了许多不确定性。在这里，我们分析了一个案例研究的河流洪水风险管理，面对深刻的不确定性，使用多目标鲁棒决策框架。虽然定量结果是特定地点的，但方法和总体见解是可推广的。我们发现经济、工程和地球科学不确定性之间存在强烈的相互作用，这表明需要扩展之前的综合分析，以进一步了解这些联系的性质和强度。考虑到洪水灾害、贴现率、房屋寿命和脆弱性的深刻不确定性，可以将经济上最优的房屋标高提高到远高于FEMA建议的值。
英文摘要：
Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-yr flood) plus a freeboard. This recommendation neglects many uncertainties. Here we analyze a case-study of riverine flood risk management using a multi-objective robust decision-making framework in the face of deep uncertainties. While the quantitative results are location-specific, the approach and overall insights are generalizable. We find strong interactions between the economic, engineering, and Earth science uncertainties, illustrating the need for expanding on previous integrated analyses to further understand the nature and strength of these connections. Considering deep uncertainties surrounding flood hazards, the discount rate, the house lifetime, and the fragility can increase the economically optimal house elevation to values well above FEMA recommendation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
