洪水风险信息的设计和沟通中的权衡
Trade-offs in the design and communication of flood-risk information
摘要：
越来越迫切需要发展管理气候风险的知识和做法。例如，洪水风险信息可以为家庭决策提供信息，例如购买房屋或洪水保险。然而，洪水风险的估计是非常不确定的，这意味着他们受到相当大的分歧。现有的洪水风险估计提供了不一致和不完整的信息，并构成了沟通方面的挑战。设计和沟通选项的不同选择可能会在决策过程中造成混乱。气候服务文献包括对产生可信和相关信息的理想特征的深入了解。使用河流（河流）洪水风险的信息产品和研究在美国的例子，我们评估现有的风险特征如何整合气候服务文献中概述的理想功能。改善与决策相关的（而且往往是深层的）不确定性的特征描述和沟通，包括那些由人类决策引起的不确定性，是下一个关键步骤。我们认为，生产相关的洪水风险信息需要应用开放科学和合作生产的原则。
英文摘要：
There is an increasingly urgent need to develop knowledge and practices to manage climate risks. For example, flood-risk information can inform household decisions such as purchasing a home or flood insurance. However, flood-risk estimates are deeply uncertain, meaning that they are subject to sizeable disagreement. Available flood-risk estimates provide inconsistent and incomplete information and pose communication challenges. The effects of different choices of design and communication options can create confusion in decision-making processes. The climate services literature includes insights into desirable features for producing information that is credible and relevant. Using examples of riverine (fluvial) flood-risk information products and studies in the United States, we assess how existing risk characterizations integrate desirable features outlined in the climate services literature. Improved characterization and communication of decision-relevant (and often deep) uncertainties, including those arising from human decisions, is a crucial next step. We argue that producing relevant flood-risk information requires applying principles of open science and co-production.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
