To achieve the goal of deep decarbonization of the electricity system, more and more variable renewable energy (VRE) is being adopted. However, there is no consensus among researchers on whether the goal can be accomplished without large cost escalation if nuclear power is excluded in the future electricity system. In Sweden, where nuclear power generated 41% of the annual electricity supply in 2014, the official goal is 100% renewable electricity production by 2040. Therefore, we investigate the cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power for Sweden. We model the European electricity system with a focus on Sweden and run a techno-economic cost optimization model for capacity investment and dispatch of generation, transmission, storage and demand-response, under a CO2 emission constraint of 10 g/kWh. Our results show that there are no, or only minor, cost benefits to reinvest in nuclear power plants in Sweden once the old ones are decommissioned. This holds for a large range of assumptions on technology costs and possibilities for investment in additional transmission capacity. We contrast our results with the recent study that claims severe cost penalties for not allowing nuclear power in Sweden and discuss the implications of methodology choice.
To meet the 2°C target and, in particular the 1.5°C target defined in the Paris Agreement, rapid scaling-up of BECCS (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage) and other negative emissions technologies (NETs) is essential. Recent research on BECCS has mainly focused on biophysical and sustainability limitations to multi-Gigatonne deployment in the latter half of this century. However, this paper focuses on the critical short-term opportunities for immediate deployment, considering solely existing bio-energy facilities in Sweden as a case study. We show that the immediate potential for BECCS …
Dynamic grid emission factors provide a temporally resolved signal about the carbon intensity of electricity generation in the power system. Since actual carbon dioxide emission measurements are usually lacking, such a signal must be derived from system-specific emission factors combined with power generation time series. We present a bottom-up method that allows deriving per country and per technology emission factors for European countries based on plant specific power generation time series and reported emissions from the European emissions trading mechanism. We have matched, 595 fossil gen…
Electricity accounts for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing emissions related to electricity consumption requires accurate measurements readily available to consumers, regulators and investors. In this case study, we propose a new real-time consumption-based accounting approach based on flow tracing. This method traces power flows from producer to consumer thereby representing the underlying physics of the electricity system, in contrast to the traditional input-output models of carbon accounting. With this method we explore the hourly structure of electricity trade across Europe…
The application of the flow tracing method to power flows in and out of storage units allows to analyse the usage of this technology option in large-scale interconnected electricity systems. We apply this method to a data-driven model of the European electricity network, which uses a techno-economic optimisation to determine generation and storage capacities and dispatch, assuming a 95% reduction of CO2 emission compared to 1990 levels. A flow-based analysis of the power inflow into the different storage technologies confirms the intuition that longer-term hydrogen storage is mainly utilised f…
Effective usage of renewable energy requires ways of storage and delivery to balance energy demand and availability divergences. Carbon-free chemical energy carriers are proposed solutions, converting clean electricity into stable media for storage and long-distance energy trade. Hydrogen (H$_2$) is the subject of significant investment and research. Metal fuels, such as iron (Fe), are promising solutions for a clean energy supply, but establishing an interconnected ecosystem still requires considerable research and development. A model is proposed to assess the supply chain of hydrogen and ir…
Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a networked system of 30 European countries, taking into account the capacity investment and operation of wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation, transmission, and different storage options. A considerable robustness of total system costs to the input weather data and to moderate changes in the cost assumptions is observed. Flat directions…
Solar photovoltaics which converts renewable solar energy into electricity have become prominent as a measure to decarbonize electricity generation. The operational carbon footprint of this technology is significantly lower compared to electricity generation using conventional non-renewable fuels. The operationalization of photovoltaic electricity generation however results in significant emissions which are loaded upfront into the atmosphere. An analysis of the embodied energy in Si solar panels manufacturing and installation, and associated CO2 emissions clearly show their global warming pot…
We outline a realistic energy transition roadmap for Italy, in which the whole energy demand is met by electricity generated by low cost renewable energy technologies, namely solar photovoltaic, wind and hydroelectric power. We assess the amount of extra power and storage capacity to be installed along with costs, return on investment and payback time. Based on cost, renewable nature and scalability, storage in energy dense polysaccharides enzymatically synthesized from carbon dioxide, water and surplus electricity is proposed to meet the significant storage requirements.
The electricity system value of the local acceptance of onshore wind in Europe
UCL Energy Institute, University College London（伦敦大学学院能源研究所）；Department of Technology Systems, University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学技术系统系）；Kelso Institute Europe（凯尔索欧洲研究所）；Chair of Energy System Analysis, ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院能源系统分析讲席）；Biodiversity, Ecology, and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis（国际应用系统分析研究所生物多样性、生态与保护研究组）；Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark（丹麦理工大学风能与能源系统系）；Iceland School of Energy, Reykjavik University（雷克雅未克大学冰岛能源学院）；Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, PSI Centers for Nuclear Engineering and Sciences & Energy and Environmental Sciences, Paul Scherrer Institute（保罗谢尔研究所能源系统分析实验室）；Institute of Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna（维也纳自然与应用科学大学生态经济发展研究所）；Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学哥白尼可持续发展研究所）
Goals to reduce carbon emissions and changing electricity prices due to increasing penetrations of wind power generation affect the planning and operation of district heating production systems. Through extensive multivariate sensitivity analysis, this study estimates the robustness of future cost-optimal heat production systems under changing electricity prices, fuel cost and investment cost. Optimal production capacities are installed choosing from a range of well-established production and storage technologies including boilers, combined heat and power (CHP) units, power-to-heat technologie…
Japan has committed to carbon neutrality by 2050. Emissions from the electricity sector amount to 42% of the total. Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind comprise three quarters of global net capacity additions because of low and falling prices. This provides an opportunity for Japan to make large reductions in emissions while also reducing its dependence on energy imports. This study shows that Japan has 14 times more solar and offshore wind resources than needed to supply 100% renewable electricity. A 40 year hourly energy balance model is presented of Japan's electricity system using historical…
Australia has one of the highest per capita consumption of energy and emissions of greenhouse gases in the world. It is also the global leader in rapid per capita annual deployment of new solar and wind energy, which is causing the country's emissions to decline. Australia is located at low-moderate latitudes along with three quarters of the global population. These factors make the Australian experience globally significant. In this study, we model a fully decarbonised electricity system together with complete electrification of heating, transport and industry in Australia leading to an 80% r…
Electricity market modelling is often used by governments, industry and agencies to explore the development of scenarios over differing timeframes. For example, how would the reduction in cost of renewable energy impact investments in gas power plants or what would be an optimum strategy for carbon tax or subsidies? Cost optimization based solutions are the dominant approach for understanding different long-term energy scenarios. However, these types of models have certain limitations such as the need to be interpreted in a normative manner, and the assumption that the electricity market remai…
The energy consumption of any of the $\rm e^+e^-$ Higgs factory projects that can credibly operate immediately after the end of LHC, namely three linear colliders (CLIC, operating at $\sqrt{s}=380$GeV; and ILC and $\rm C^3$, operating at $\sqrt{s}=250$ GeV) and two circular colliders (CEPC and FCC-ee, operating at $\sqrt{s}=240$ GeV), will be everything but negligible. Future Higgs boson studies may therefore have a significant environmental impact. This note proposes to include the carbon footprint for a given physics performance as a top-level gauge for the design optimization and, eventuall…
