最优分区供热生产系统的成本敏感性
Cost sensitivity of optimal sector-coupled district heating production systems
摘要：
由于风力发电的渗透率增加，减少碳排放和改变电价的目标影响了区域供热生产系统的规划和运营。通过广泛的多变量敏感性分析，本研究估计未来成本最优的供热系统在不断变化的电价，燃料成本和投资成本的鲁棒性。从一系列成熟的生产和储存技术中选择最佳的生产能力，包括锅炉，热电联产（CHP）装置，电力到热量技术和热储存。最优的热生产系统的特点是在三个不同的电价情景：历史，风力发电为主，需求为主。如果允许使用化石燃料，煤热电联产、大型热泵和蓄热器是最佳系统。如果化石燃料被排除在外，热泵和存储将取而代之。热电联产和热泵之间的容量分配在很大程度上取决于化石燃料情景中的成本假设，但如果不包括化石燃料，则最佳容量变得更加稳健。在无化石燃料的情况下，系统成本变得不那么稳健。如果电力定价由风力发电或电力需求主导，与热电联产机组相比，热泵变得更有利。如果不包括化石燃料，随着供暖系统与电力系统的联系越来越紧密，对储热的需求增加了一倍以上。
英文摘要：
Goals to reduce carbon emissions and changing electricity prices due to increasing penetrations of wind power generation affect the planning and operation of district heating production systems. Through extensive multivariate sensitivity analysis, this study estimates the robustness of future cost-optimal heat production systems under changing electricity prices, fuel cost and investment cost. Optimal production capacities are installed choosing from a range of well-established production and storage technologies including boilers, combined heat and power (CHP) units, power-to-heat technologies and heat storages. The optimal heat production system is characterized in three different electricity pricing scenarios: Historical, wind power dominated and demand dominated. Coal CHP, large heat pumps and heat storages dominate the optimal system if fossil fuels are allowed. Heat pumps and storages take over if fossil fuels are excluded. The capacity allocation between CHP and heat pumps is highly dependent on cost assumptions in the fossil fuel scenario, but the optimal capacities become much more robust if fossil fuels are not included. System cost becomes less robust in a fossil free scenario. If the electricity pricing is dominated by wind power generation or by the electricity demand, heat pumps become more favorable compared to cogeneration units. The need for heat storage more than doubles, if fossil fuels are not included, as the heating system becomes more closely coupled to the electricity system.
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