Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究所）
This paper presents a novel online framework for safe crowd-robot interaction based on risk-sensitive stochastic optimal control, wherein the risk is modeled by the entropic risk measure. The sampling-based model predictive control relies on mode insertion gradient optimization for this risk measure as well as Trajectron++, a state-of-the-art generative model that produces multimodal probabilistic trajectory forecasts for multiple interacting agents. Our modular approach decouples the crowd-robot interaction into learning-based prediction and model-based control, which is advantageous compared…
Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；NVIDIA Research（英伟达研究院）
Autonomous systems and humans are increasingly sharing the same space. Robots work side by side or even hand in hand with humans to balance each other's limitations. Such cooperative interactions are ever more sophisticated. Thus, the ability to reason not just about a human's center of gravity position, but also its granular motion is an important prerequisite for human-robot interaction. Though, many algorithms ignore the multimodal nature of humans or neglect uncertainty in their motion forecasts. We present Motron, a multimodal, probabilistic, graph-structured model, that captures human's …
Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）；AzaTec（AzaTec公司）；Walmart Global Tech India（沃尔玛印度全球技术公司）
Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible projects, which helps to avoid risky investments and achieve long-term growth. As a result, reliable petroleum reservoir forecasting is critical for controlling and managing the effective cost of oil reservoirs. Oil production is influenced by reservoir qualities such as porosity, permeability, compressibility, fluid saturation, and other well operational paramet…
The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting (feasible in real time applications) to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. The direction of moving clouds is estimated in consecutive sequences of sky images by extracting features of cloud dynamics with the objective of forecasting the global solar irradiance that reaches photovoltaic …
Texas Tech University（德克萨斯理工大学）；Kinetica db Inc.（Kinetica数据库公司）
A robust model for time series forecasting is highly important in many domains, including but not limited to financial forecast, air temperature and electricity consumption. To improve forecasting performance, traditional approaches usually require additional feature sets. However, adding more feature sets from different sources of data is not always feasible due to its accessibility limitation. In this paper, we propose a novel self-boosted mechanism in which the original time series is decomposed into multiple time series. These time series played the role of additional features in which the…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
Traffic forecasting problem remains a challenging task in the intelligent transportation system due to its spatio-temporal complexity. Although temporal dependency has been well studied and discussed, spatial dependency is relatively less explored due to its large variations, especially in the urban environment. In this study, a novel graph convolutional network model, Multi-Weight Traffic Graph Convolutional (MW-TGC) network, is proposed and applied to two urban networks with contrasting geometric constraints. The model conducts graph convolution operations on speed data with multi-weighted a…
OLMA: One Loss for More Accurate Time Series Forecasting
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Beijing Key Laboratory of Network System and Network Culture（北京网络系统与网络文化重点实验室）；Beijing Academy of Blockchain and Edge Computing（北京区块链与边缘计算研究院）
Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operationa…
Forecasting mortality associated emergency department crowding
Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University（坦佩雷大学医学与健康技术学院）；Emergency Department, Tampere University Hospital（坦佩雷大学医院急诊科）；Kanta-Häme Central Hospital（坎塔-海梅中心医院）；Faculty of Information Technology and Communication Sciences, Tampere University（坦佩雷大学信息技术与传播科学学院）；Centre for Vascular Surgery and Interventional Radiology, Tampere University Hospital（坦佩雷大学医院血管外科与介入放射中心）
ReCycle: Fast and Efficient Long Time Series Forecasting with Residual Cyclic Transformers
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；German Aerospace Center (DLR)（德国航空航天中心）；INENSUS GmbH（因内森斯有限公司）；Siemens AG, Digital Industries（西门子股份公司数字工业部门）
Enhancing Global Maritime Traffic Network Forecasting with Gravity-Inspired Deep Learning Models
Department of Computer Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland（纪念大学计算机科学系）；Industrial Engineering Department, Dalhousie University（达尔豪斯大学工业工程系）；Institute for Big Data Analytics, Dalhousie University（达尔豪斯大学大数据分析研究所）；Institute of Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院计算机科学研究所）；Department of Computer Science and Media Technology, Linnaeus University（林纳大学计算机科学与媒体技术系）
armasuisse Science and Technology（瑞士联邦国防采购局科学与技术部）；Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford（牛津大学计算机科学系）
In recent years, air traffic communication data has become easy to access, enabling novel research in many fields. Exploiting this new data source, a wide range of applications have emerged, from weather forecasting to stock market prediction, or the collection of information about military and government movements. Typically these applications require knowledge about the metadata of the aircraft, specifically its operator and the aircraft category. armasuisse Science + Technology, the R\&D agency for the Swiss Armed Forces, has been developing Classi-Fly, a novel approach to obtain metadata a…
AMP: Autoregressive Motion Prediction Revisited with Next Token Prediction for Autonomous Driving
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Cowa Robot（科沃机器人）；Max Planck Institute for Informatics（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
Modern self-driving autonomy systems heavily rely on deep learning. As a consequence, their performance is influenced significantly by the quality and richness of the training data. Data collecting platforms can generate many hours of raw data in a daily basis, however, it is not feasible to label everything. It is thus of key importance to have a mechanism to identify "what to label". Active learning approaches identify examples to label, but their interestingness is tied to a fixed model performing a particular task. These assumptions are not valid in self-driving, where we have to solve a d…
