Clinical trials in the medical domain are constrained by budgets. The number of patients that can be recruited is therefore limited. When a patient population is heterogeneous, this creates difficulties in learning subgroup specific responses to a particular drug and especially for a variety of dosages. In addition, patient recruitment can be difficult by the fact that clinical trials do not aim to provide a benefit to any given patient in the trial. In this paper, we propose C3T-Budget, a contextual constrained clinical trial algorithm for dose-finding under both budget and safety constraints. The algorithm aims to maximize drug efficacy within the clinical trial while also learning about the drug being tested. C3T-Budget recruits patients with consideration of the remaining budget, the remaining time, and the characteristics of each group, such as the population distribution, estimated expected efficacy, and estimation credibility. In addition, the algorithm aims to avoid unsafe dosages. These characteristics are further illustrated in a simulated clinical trial study, which corroborates the theoretical analysis and demonstrates an efficient budget usage as well as a balanced learning-treatment trade-off.
Dose-finding design based on level set estimation in phase I cancer clinical trials
Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；Kyoto University（京都大学）；MI-6 Ltd.（MI-6有限公司）；Nagoya Institute of Technology（名古屋工业大学）；The Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）
University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）
Phase I dose-finding trials are increasingly challenging as the relationship between efficacy and toxicity of new compounds (or combination of them) becomes more complex. Despite this, most commonly used methods in practice focus on identifying a Maximum Tolerated Dose (MTD) by learning only from toxicity events. We present a novel adaptive clinical trial methodology, called Safe Efficacy Exploration Dose Allocation (SEEDA), that aims at maximizing the cumulative efficacies while satisfying the toxicity safety constraint with high probability. We evaluate performance objectives that have opera…
Sejong University（世宗大学）；University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Yonsei University（延世大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Phase I clinical trials are designed to test the safety (non-toxicity) of drugs and find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This task becomes significantly more challenging when multiple-drug dose-combinations (DC) are involved, due to the inherent conflict between the exponentially increasing DC candidates and the limited patient budget. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian design, SDF-Bayes, for finding the MTD for drug combinations in the presence of safety constraints. Rather than the conventional principle of escalating or de-escalating the current dose of one drug (perhaps alternating bet…
In parametric Bayesian designs of early phase cancer clinical trials with drug combinations exploring a discrete set of partially ordered doses, several authors claimed that there is no added value in including an interaction term to model synergism between the two drugs. In this paper, we investigate these claims in the setting of continuous dose levels of the two agents. Parametric models will be used to describe the relationship between the doses of the two agents and the probability of dose limiting toxicity and efficacy. Trial design proceeds by treating cohorts of two patients simultaneo…
Phase I dose-escalation trials constitute the first step in investigating the safety of potentially promising drugs in humans. Conventional methods for phase I dose-escalation trials are based on a single treatment schedule only. More recently, however, multiple schedules are more frequently investigated in the same trial. Here, we consider sequential phase I trials, where the trial proceeds with a new schedule (e.g. daily or weekly dosing) once the dose escalation with another schedule has been completed. The aim is to utilize the information from both the completed and the ongoing dose-escal…
Purpose: The early identification of maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in phase I trial leads to faster progression to a phase II trial or an expansion cohort to confirm efficacy. Methods: We propose a novel adaptive design for identifying MTD early to accelerate dose-finding trials. The early identification of MTD is determined adaptively by dose-retainment probability using a trial data via Bayesian analysis. We applied the early identification design to an actual trial. A simulation study evaluates the performance of the early identification design. Results: In the actual study, we confirmed the…
Traditionally, the major objective in phase I trials is to identify a working-dose for subsequent studies, whereas the major endpoint in phase II and III trials is treatment efficacy. The dose sought is typically referred to as the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Several statistical methodologies have been proposed to select the MTD in cancer phase I trials. In this manuscript, we focus on a Bayesian adaptive design, known as escalation with overdose control (EWOC). Several aspects of this design are discussed, including large sample properties of the sequence of doses selected in the trial, cho…
Broadening eligibility criteria in cancer trials has been advocated to represent the true patient population more accurately. While the advantages are clear in terms of generalizability and recruitment, novel dose-finding designs are needed to ensure patient safety. These designs should be able to recommend precise doses for subpopulations if such subpopulations with different toxicity profiles exist. While dose-finding designs accounting for patient heterogeneity have been proposed, all existing methods assume the source of heterogeneity is known and thus pre-specify the subpopulations or onl…
We propose a rule-based statistical design for combination dose-finding trials with two agents. The Ci3+3 design is an extension of the i3+3 design with simple decision rules comparing the observed toxicity rates and equivalence intervals that define the maximum tolerated dose combination. Ci3+3 consists of two stages to allow fast and efficient exploration of the dose-combination space. Statistical inference is restricted to a beta-binomial model for dose evaluation, and the entire design is built upon a set of fixed rules. We show via simulation studies that the Ci3+3 design exhibits similar…
Recently, the strategy for dose optimization in oncology has shifted to conduct Phase 2 randomized controlled trials with multiple doses. Optimal biologic dose selection from Phase 1 trial data to determine candidate doses for Phase 2 trials has been gaining attention. This study proposes a novel adaptive cohort size determination method for optimal biologic dose-finding to accelerate trials. The cohort size expansion is determined adaptively depending on the toxicity and efficacy data of the ongoing trial. In a simulation, the proposed method shortened the trial duration and maintained accura…
We consider a Bayesian framework based on "probability of decision" for dose-finding trial designs. The proposed PoD-BIN design evaluates the posterior predictive probabilities of up-and-down decisions. In PoD-BIN, multiple grades of toxicity, categorized as the mild toxicity (MT) and dose-limiting toxicity (DLT), are modeled simultaneously, and the primary outcome of interests is time-to-toxicity for both MT and DLT. This allows the possibility of enrolling new patients when previously enrolled patients are still being followed for toxicity, thus potentially shortening trial length. The Bayes…
Phase I dose-escalation trials must be guided by a safety model in order to avoid exposing patients to unacceptably high risk of toxicities. Traditionally, these trials are based on one type of schedule. In more recent practice, however, there is often a need to consider more than one schedule, which means that in addition to the dose itself, the schedule needs to be varied in the trial. Hence, the aim is finding an acceptable dose-schedule combination. However, most established methods for dose-escalation trials are designed to escalate the dose only and ad-hoc choices must be made to adapt t…
The commonplace description of phase 1 clinical trials in oncology as "primarily concerned with safety" is belied by their near universal adoption of dose-escalation practices which are inherently unsafe. In contrast with dose titration, cohort-wise dose escalation regards patients as exchangeable, an indefensible assumption in the face of widely appreciated inter-individual heterogeneity in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PKPD). I have previously advanced this argument in terms of a precautionary coherence principle that brings the well-known coherence notion of Cheung (2005) into cont…
Dose-finding clinical trials in oncology aim to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new drug, generally defined by the proportion of patients with short-term dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs). Model-based approaches for such phase I oncology trials have been widely designed and are mostly restricted to the DLTs occurring during the first cycle of treatment, although patients continue to receive treatment for multiple cycles. We aim to estimate the probability of DLTs over sequences of treatment cycles via a Bayesian cumulative modeling approach, where the probability of DLT is modele…
In traditional dose-finding studies, dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) is determined within a fixed time observation window where DLT is often defined as a binary outcome. In the setting of oncology dose-finding trials, often patients in advanced stage of diseases are enrolled. Therefore, disease progression may occur within the DLT observation window leading to treatment discontinuation and rendering the patient unevaluable for DLT assessment. As a result, additional patients have to be enrolled, increasing the sample size. We propose and compare several practical methods for handling disease prog…
Interval designs are a class of phase I trial designs for which the decision of dose assignment is determined by comparing the observed toxicity rate at the current dose with a prespecified (toxicity tolerance) interval. If the observed toxicity rate is located within the interval, we retain the current dose; if the observed toxicity rate is greater than the upper boundary of the interval, we deescalate the dose; and if the observed toxicity rate is smaller than the lower boundary of the interval, we escalate the dose. The most critical issue for the interval design is choosing an appropriate …
In 1951 Robbins and Monro published the seminal article on stochastic approximation and made a specific reference to its application to the "estimation of a quantal using response, nonresponse data." Since the 1990s, statistical methodology for dose-finding studies has grown into an active area of research. The dose-finding problem is at its core a percentile estimation problem and is in line with what the Robbins--Monro method sets out to solve. In this light, it is quite surprising that the dose-finding literature has developed rather independently of the older stochastic approximation liter…
An objective of phase I dose-finding trials is to find the maximum tolerated dose; the dose with a particular risk of toxicity. Frequently, this risk is assessed across the first cycle of therapy. However, in oncology, a course of treatment frequently consists of multiple cycles of therapy. In many cases, the overall risk of toxicity for a given treatment is not fully encapsulated by observations from the first cycle, and hence it is advantageous to include toxicity outcomes from later cycles in phase I trials. Extending the follow up period in a trial naturally extends the total length of the…
In learning-phase clinical trials in drug development, adaptive designs can be efficient and highly informative when used appropriately. In this article, we extend the multiple comparison procedures with modeling techniques (MCP-Mod) procedure with generalized multiple contrast tests (GMCTs) to two-stage adaptive designs for establishing proof-of-concept. The results of an interim analysis of first-stage data are used to adapt the candidate dose-response models and the dosages studied in the second stage. GMCTs are used in both stages to obtain stage-wise p-values, which are then combined to d…
Motivated by a clinical trial conducted by Janssen Pharmaceuticals in which a flexible dosing regimen is compared to placebo, we evaluate how switchers in the treatment arm (i.e., patients who were switched to the higher dose) would have fared had they been kept on the low dose. This in order to understand whether flexible dosing is potentially beneficial for them. Simply comparing these patients' responses with those of patients who stayed on the low dose is unsatisfactory because the latter patients are usually in a better health condition. Because the available information in the considered…
Phase I-II cancer clinical trial designs are intended to accelerate drug development. In cases where efficacy cannot be ascertained in a short period of time, it is common to divide the study in two stages: i) a first stage in which dose is escalated based only on toxicity data and we look for the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) set and ii) a second stage in which we search for the most efficacious dose within the MTD set. Current available approaches in the area of continuous dose levels involve fixing the MTD after stage I and discarding all collected stage I efficacy data. However, this method…
The primary object of a phase I clinical trial is to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Typically, the MTD is identified using a dose-escalation study, where initial subjects are treated at the lowest dose level and subsequent subjects are treated at progressively higher dose levels until the MTD is identified. The continual reassessment method (CRM) is a popular model-based dose-escalation design, which utilizes a formal model for the relationship between dose and toxicity to guide dose-finding. Recently, it was shown that the CRM has a tendency to get "stuck" on a dose-level, with l…
Background -- In phase I clinical trials, historical data may be available through multi-regional programs, reformulation of the same drug, or previous trials for a drug under the same class. Statistical designs that borrow information from historical data can reduce cost, speed up drug development, and maintain safety. Purpose -- Based on a hybrid design that partly uses probability models and partly uses algorithmic rules for decision making, we aim to improve the efficiency of the dose-finding trials in the presence of historical data, maintain safety for patients, and achieve a level of si…
Many phase II clinical trials have used survival outcomes as the primary endpoints in recent decades. Suppose the radiotherapy is evaluated in a phase II trial using survival outcomes. In that case, the competing risk issue often arises because the time to disease progression can be censored by the time to normal tissue complications, and vice versa. Besides, much literature has examined that patients receiving the same radiotherapy dose may yield distinct responses due to their heterogeneous radiation susceptibility statuses. Therefore, the "one-dose-fit-all" strategy often fails, and it is m…
Cohort-based enrollment can slow down dose-finding trials since the outcomes of the previous cohort must be fully evaluated before the next cohort can be enrolled. This results in frequent suspension of patient enrollment. The issue is exacerbated in recent immune-oncology trials where toxicity outcomes can take a long time to observe. We propose a novel phase I design, the probability-of-decision toxicity probability interval (PoD-TPI) design, to accelerate phase I trials. PoD-TPI enables dose assignment in real-time in the presence of pending toxicity outcomes. With uncertain outcomes, the d…
Nowadays, more and more clinical trials choose combinational agents as the intervention to achieve better therapeutic responses. However, dose-finding for combinational agents is much more complicated than single agent as the full order of combination dose toxicity is unknown. Therefore, regular phase I designs are not able to identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of combinational agents. Motivated by such needs, plenty of novel phase I clinical trial designs for combinational agents were proposed. With so many available designs, research that compare their performances, explore parameters…
The landscape of dose-finding designs for phase I clinical trials is rapidly shifting in the recent years, noticeably marked by the emergence of interval-based designs. We categorize them as the iDesigns and the IB-Designs. The iDesigns are originated by the toxicity probability inter- val (TPI) designs and its two modifications, the mTPI and mTPI-2 designs. The IB-Designs started as the cumulative cohort design (CCD) and is recently extended by the BOIN design. We discuss the differences and similarities between these two classes of interval-based designs, and compare their simulation perform…
In two harmonized efficacy studies to prevent HIV infection through multiple infusions of the monoclonal antibody VRC01, a key objective is to evaluate whether the serum concentration of VRC01, which changes cyclically over time along with the infusion schedule, is associated with the rate of HIV infection. Simulation studies are needed in the development of such survival models. In this paper, we consider simulating event time data with a continuous time-varying covariate whose values vary with time through multiple drug administration cycles, and whose effect on survival changes differently …
In oncology dose-finding trials, due to staggered enrollment, it might be desirable to make dose-assignment decisions in real-time in the presence of pending toxicity outcomes, for example, when the dose-limiting toxicity is late-onset. Patients' time-to-event information may be utilized to facilitate such decisions. We review statistical frameworks for time-to-event modeling in dose-finding trials and summarize existing designs into two classes: TITE designs and POD designs. TITE designs are based on inference on toxicity probabilities, while POD designs are based on inference on dose-finding…
We study the problem of finding the optimal dosage in early stage clinical trials through the multi-armed bandit lens. We advocate the use of the Thompson Sampling principle, a flexible algorithm that can accommodate different types of monotonicity assumptions on the toxicity and efficacy of the doses. For the simplest version of Thompson Sampling, based on a uniform prior distribution for each dose, we provide finite-time upper bounds on the number of sub-optimal dose selections, which is unprecedented for dose-finding algorithms. Through a large simulation study, we then show that variants o…
An important tool to evaluate the performance of any design is an optimal benchmark proposed by O'Quigley and others (2002, Biostatistics 3(1), 51-56) that provides an upper bound on the performance of a design under a given scenario. The original benchmark can be applied to dose finding studies with a binary endpoint only. However, there is a growing interest in dose finding studies involving continuous outcomes, but no benchmark for such studies has been developed. We show that the original benchmark and its extension by Cheung (2014, Biometrics 70(2), 389-397), when looked at from a differe…
Modeling dose-response relationships of drugs is essential to understanding their effect on patient outcomes under realistic circumstances. While intention-to-treat analyses of clinical trials provide the effect of assignment to a particular drug and dose, they do not capture observed exposure after factoring in non-adherence and dropout. We develop Bayesian methods to flexibly model dose-response relationships of binary outcomes with continuous treatment, allowing for treatment effect heterogeneity and a non-linear response surface. We use a hierarchical framework for meta-analysis with the e…
Incorporating historical data or real-world evidence has a great potential to improve the efficiency of phase I clinical trials and to accelerate drug development. For model-based designs, such as the continuous reassessment method (CRM), this can be conveniently carried out by specifying a "skeleton," i.e., the prior estimate of dose limiting toxicity (DLT) probability at each dose. In contrast, little work has been done to incorporate historical data or real-world evidence into model-assisted designs, such as the Bayesian optimal interval (BOIN), keyboard, and modified toxicity probability i…
We analyze the sample complexity of the thresholding bandit problem, with and without the assumption that the mean values of the arms are increasing. In each case, we provide a lower bound valid for any risk $δ$ and any $δ$-correct algorithm; in addition, we propose an algorithm whose sample complexity is of the same order of magnitude for small risks. This work is motivated by phase 1 clinical trials, a practically important setting where the arm means are increasing by nature, and where no satisfactory solution is available so far.
Warfarin dosing remains challenging due to narrow therapeutic index and highly individual variability. Incorrect warfarin dosing is associated with devastating adverse events. Remarkable efforts have been made to develop the machine learning based warfarin dosing algorithms incorporating clinical factors and genetic variants such as polymorphisms in CYP2C9 and VKORC1. The most widely validated pharmacogenetic algorithm is the IWPC algorithm based on multivariate linear regression (MLR). However, with only a single algorithm, the prediction performance may reach an upper limit even with optimal…
Novel dose-finding designs, using estimation to assign the best estimated maximum- tolerated-dose (MTD) at each point in the experiment, most commonly via Bayesian techniques, have recently entered large-scale implementation in Phase I cancer clinical trials. We examine the small-sample behavior of these "Bayesian Phase I" (BP1) designs, and also of non-Bayesian designs sharing the same main "long-memory" traits (hereafter: LMP1s). For all LMP1s examined, the number of cohorts treated at the true MTD (denoted here as n*) was highly variable between numerical runs drawn from the same toxicity-t…
Two useful strategies to speed up drug development are to increase the patient accrual rate and use novel adaptive designs. Unfortunately, these two strategies often conflict when the evaluation of the outcome cannot keep pace with the patient accrual rate and thus the interim data cannot be observed in time to make adaptive decisions. A similar logistic difficulty arises when the outcome is of late onset. Based on a novel formulation and approximation of the likelihood of the observed data, we propose a general methodology for model-assisted designs to handle toxicity data that are pending du…
An early phase clinical trial is the first step in evaluating the effects in humans of a potential new anti-disease agent or combination of agents. Usually called "phase I" or "phase I/II" trials, these experiments typically have the nominal scientific goal of determining an acceptable dose, most often based on adverse event probabilities. This arose from a tradition of phase I trials to evaluate cytotoxic agents for treating cancer, although some methods may be applied in other medical settings, such as treatment of stroke or immunological diseases. Most modern statistical designs for early p…
For many years Phase I and Phase II clinical trials were conducted separately, but there was a recent shift to combine these Phases. While a variety of Phase~I/II model-based designs for cytotoxic agents were proposed in the literature, methods for molecularly targeted agents (TA) are just starting to develop. The main challenge of the TA setting is the unknown dose-efficacy relation that can have either an increasing, plateau or umbrella shape. To capture these, approaches with more parameters are needed to model the dose-efficacy relationship or, alternatively, more orderings of the dose-eff…
