Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame prediction, to increase the accuracy of ice flow tracking in multi-spectral satellite images. As the volume of cryosphere data increases in coming years, this is an interesting and important opportunity for machine learning to address a global challenge for climate change, risk management from floods, and conserving freshwater resources. Future frame prediction of ice melt and tracking the optical flow of ice dynamics presents modeling difficulties, due to uncertainties in global temperature increase, changing precipitation patterns, occlusion from cloud cover, rapid melting and glacier retreat due to black carbon aerosol deposition, from wildfires or human fossil emissions. We show the adversarial learning method helps improve the accuracy of tracking the optical flow of ice dynamics compared to existing methods in climate science. We present a dataset, IceNet, to encourage machine learning research and to help facilitate further applications in the areas of cryospheric science and climate change.
Accurate prediction of suicide risk in mental health patients remains an open problem. Existing methods including clinician judgments have acceptable sensitivity, but yield many false positives. Exploiting administrative data has a great potential, but the data has high dimensionality and redundancies in the recording processes. We investigate the efficacy of three most effective randomized machine learning techniques random forests, gradient boosting machines, and deep neural nets with dropout in predicting suicide risk. Using a cohort of mental health patients from a regional Australian hosp…
When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more than 104 million events from 12,500 machines. Among these samples, we observe and categorize three types of machine failures, all of which are catastrophic and may lead to information loss, or even worse, reliability degradation of a datacenter. We further propose a two-stage fra…
This research focuses on predicting the demand for air taxi urban air mobility (UAM) services during different times of the day in various geographic regions of New York City using machine learning algorithms (MLAs). Several ride-related factors (such as month of the year, day of the week and time of the day) and weather-related variables (such as temperature, weather conditions and visibility) are used as predictors for four popular MLAs, namely, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and gradient boosting. Experimental results suggest gradient boosting to consistent…
Understanding and predicting highway lane-change maneuvers is essential for driving modeling and its automation. The development of data-based lane-changing decision-making algorithms is nowadays in full expansion. We compare empirically in this article different machine and ensemble learning classification techniques to the MOBIL rule-based model using trajectory data of European two-lane highways. The analysis relies on instantaneous measurements of up to twenty-four spatial-temporal variables with the four neighboring vehicles on current and adjacent lanes. Preliminary descriptive investiga…
Numediart Institute, University of Mons（蒙斯大学Numediart研究所）
ICE-Talk is an open source web-based GUI that allows the use of a TTS system with controllable parameters via a text field and a clickable 2D plot. It enables the study of latent spaces for controllable TTS. Moreover it is implemented as a module that can be used as part of a Human-Agent interaction.
Austrian Institute of Technology（奥地利技术研究所）；Fraunhofer Austria（弗劳恩霍夫奥地利协会）；Infineon Technologies Austria AG（英飞凌科技奥地利股份公司）
Predicting unscheduled breakdowns of plasma etching equipment can reduce maintenance costs and production losses in the semiconductor industry. However, plasma etching is a complex procedure and it is hard to capture all relevant equipment properties and behaviors in a single physical model. Machine learning offers an alternative for predicting upcoming machine failures based on relevant data points. In this paper, we describe three different machine learning tasks that can be used for that purpose: (i) predicting Time-To-Failure (TTF), (ii) predicting health state, and (iii) predicting TTF in…
Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging and uncertain tasks which has a significant impact on human society. Timely and accurate predictions can help to proactively reduce human and financial loss. This study presents a set of experiments which involve the use of prevalent machine learning techniques to build models to predict whether it is going to rain tomorrow or not based on weather data for that particular day in major cities of Australia. This comparative study is conducted concentrating on three aspects: modeling inputs, modeling methods, and pre-processing techniques. The results…
Most existing work on predicting NCAAB matches has been developed in a statistical context. Trusting the capabilities of ML techniques, particularly classification learners, to uncover the importance of features and learn their relationships, we evaluated a number of different paradigms on this task. In this paper, we summarize our work, pointing out that attributes seem to be more important than models, and that there seems to be an upper limit to predictive quality.
This thesis explores a number of online machine learning algorithms. From a theoret- ical perspective, it assesses their employability for a particular function approximation problem where the analytical models fall short. Furthermore, it discusses the applica- tion of theoretically suitable learning algorithms to the function approximation problem at hand through an efficient implementation that exploits various computational and mathematical shortcuts. Finally, this thesis work evaluates the implemented learning algorithms according to various evaluation criteria through rigorous testing.
Purpose: To explore the potential of Explainable Machine Learning in the prediction and detection of drivers of cleared homicides at the national- and state-levels in the United States. Methods: First, nine algorithmic approaches are compared to assess the best performance in predicting cleared homicides country-wise, using data from the Murder Accountability Project. The most accurate algorithm among all (XGBoost) is then used for predicting clearance outcomes state-wise. Second, SHAP, a framework for Explainable Artificial Intelligence, is employed to capture the most important features in e…
Analysing high resolution digital Mars images using machine learning
Luleå University of Technology（吕勒奥理工大学）；Wigner RCP（维格纳研究中心）；Konkoly Thege Miklos Astronomical Institute（科诺利·泰格·米克洛什天文研究所）；Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences（天文与地球科学研究中心）；ELTE Institute of Physics（厄特沃什·罗兰大学物理研究所）；CSFK, MTA Centre of Excellence（匈牙利科学院卓越中心CSFK）
Deep Generative Learning of Magnetic Frustration in Artificial Spin Ice from Magnetic Force Microscopy Images
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室理论 division）；Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies, Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室集成纳米技术中心）；Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies, Sandia National Laboratory（桑塔纳国家实验室集成纳米技术中心）
In this paper, we present machine learning models based on random forest classifiers, support vector machines, gradient boosted decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict participation in cancer screening programs in South Korea. The top performing model was based on gradient boosted decision trees and achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.8706 and average precision of 0.8776. The results of this study are encouraging and suggest that with further research, these models can be directly applied to Korea's healthcare system, thus increas…
Nagoya Institute of Technology（名古屋工业大学）；Massey University（梅西大学）
Over the past two decades, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been increasingly utilized for the purpose of predicting outcomes in sport. In this paper, we provide a review of studies that have used ML for predicting results in team sport, covering studies from 1996 to 2019. We sought to answer five key research questions while extensively surveying papers in this field. This paper offers insights into which ML algorithms have tended to be used in this field, as well as those that are beginning to emerge with successful outcomes. Our research highlights defining characteristics of successfu…
Maret School（马雷特学校）；Bullis School（布利斯学校）；Private Identity LLC（Private Identity 有限责任公司）；Villanova University（维拉诺瓦大学）
We demonstrate that machine learning enables the capability to infer an individual's propensity to vote from their past actions and attributes. This is useful for microtargeting voter outreach, voter education and get-out-the-vote (GOVT) campaigns. Political scientists developed increasingly sophisticated techniques for estimating election outcomes since the late 1940s. Two prior studies similarly used machine learning to predict individual future voting behavior. We built a machine learning environment using TensorFlow, obtained voting data from 2004 to 2018, and then ran three experiments. W…
The music industry is a $130 billion industry. Predicting whether a song catches the pulse of the audience impacts the industry. In this paper we analyze language inside the lyrics of the songs using several computational linguistic algorithms and predict whether a song would make to the top or bottom of the billboard rankings based on the language features. We trained and tested an SVM classifier with a radial kernel function on the linguistic features. Results indicate that we can classify whether a song belongs to top and bottom of the billboard charts with a precision of 0.76.
In this paper, we use support vector machines (SVM) to develop a machine learning framework to discover phase space structures that distinguish between distinct reaction pathways. The SVM model is trained using data from trajectories of Hamilton's equations and works well even with relatively few trajectories. Moreover, this framework is specifically designed to require minimal a priori knowledge of the dynamics in a system. This makes our approach computationally better suited than existing methods for high-dimensional systems and systems where integrating trajectories is expensive. We benchm…
Childhood obesity is a major public health concern. Multidisciplinary pediatric weight management programs are considered standard treatment for children with obesity and severe obesity who are not able to be successfully managed in the primary care setting; however, high drop-out rates (referred to as attrition) are a major hurdle in delivering successful interventions. Predicting attrition patterns can help providers reduce the attrition rates. Previous work has mainly focused on finding static predictors of attrition using statistical analysis methods. In this study, we present a machine le…
Vienna University of Economics and Business（维也纳经济大学）
This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performance is evaluated over four different data sets in combination with five data sampling strategies to tackle existing class imbalances in the data. Six different performance measures are used to cover different aspects of predictive performance. The results indicate a strong superiority of ensemble methods and show that simple sampling strategies deliver better results than more sophisticated ones.
The spread of diseases has been studied for many years, but it receives a particular focus recently due to the outbreak and spread of COVID-19. Studies show that the spread of COVID-19 can be characterized by the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model with containment coefficients (due to quarantine and keeping social distance). This project aims to apply the machine learning technique to predict the severity of COVID-19 and the effect of quarantine, keeping social distance, working from home, and wearing masks on the transmission of the disease. This work deepens our understan…
Predicting invoice payment is valuable in multiple industries and supports decision-making processes in most financial workflows. However, the challenge in this realm involves dealing with complex data and the lack of data related to decisions-making processes not registered in the accounts receivable system. This work presents a prototype developed as a solution devised during a partnership with a multinational bank to support collectors in predicting invoices payment. The proposed prototype reached up to 77\% of accuracy, which improved the prioritization of customers and supported the daily…
Understanding what graph layout human prefer and why they prefer is significant and challenging due to the highly complex visual perception and cognition system in human brain. In this paper, we present the first machine learning approach for predicting human preference for graph layouts. In general, the data sets with human preference labels are limited and insufficient for training deep networks. To address this, we train our deep learning model by employing the transfer learning method, e.g., exploiting the quality metrics, such as shape-based metrics, edge crossing and stress, which are sh…
In this paper, machine learning models are used to predict outcomes for patients with persistent post-concussion syndrome (PCS). Patients had sustained a concussion at an average of two to three months before the study. By utilizing assessed data, the machine learning models aimed to predict whether or not a patient would continue to have PCS after four to five months. The random forest classifier achieved the highest performance with an 85% accuracy and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. Factors found to be predictive of PCS outcome were Post-Traumatic St…
Predicting the success of startup companies is of great importance for both startup companies and investors. It is difficult due to the lack of available data and appropriate general methods. With data platforms like Crunchbase aggregating the information of startup companies, it is possible to predict with machine learning algorithms. Existing research suffers from the data sparsity problem as most early-stage startup companies do not have much data available to the public. We try to leverage the recent algorithms to solve this problem. We investigate several machine learning algorithms with …
Multi-Modal Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Early Recurrence of Brain Tumors Using MRI and Clinical Biomarkers
Department of Encephalopathy, Chengdu Pidu District Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine（脑病科，成都_pidu区中医医院）；Department of Tuina, Chengdu Pidu District Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine（推拿科，成都_pidu区中医医院）；Wuhan Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Affiliated to Hubei University of Chinese Medicine（中西医结合医院，湖北中医药大学附属医院）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University（电气与计算机工程系，卡内基梅隆大学）
Our project probes the relationship between temperatures and the blossom date of cherry trees. Through modeling, future flowering will become predictive, helping the public plan travels and avoid pollen season. To predict the date when the cherry trees will blossom exactly could be viewed as a multiclass classification problem, so we applied the multi-class Support Vector Classifier (SVC) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), particularly Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), to formulate the problem. In the end, we evaluate and compare the performance of these approaches to find out which one might be…
Sentiment prediction of contemporary music can have a wide-range of applications in modern society, for instance, selecting music for public institutions such as hospitals or restaurants to potentially improve the emotional well-being of personnel, patients, and customers, respectively. In this project, music recommendation system built upon on a naive Bayes classifier, trained to predict the sentiment of songs based on song lyrics alone. The experimental results show that music corresponding to a happy mood can be detected with high precision based on text features obtained from song lyrics.
University of Missouri, Columbia（密苏里大学哥伦比亚分校）；NDSU（北达科他州立大学）
In this paper, five different deep learning models are being compared for predicting travel time. These models are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, recurrent neural network (RNN) model, autoregressive (AR) model, Long-short term memory (LSTM) model, and gated recurrent units (GRU) model. The aim of this study is to investigate the performance of each developed model for forecasting travel time. The dataset used in this paper consists of travel time and travel speed information from the state of Missouri. The learning rate used for building each model was varied from 0.00…
Insight Centre for Data Analytics（洞察数据分析中心）；University College Dublin（都柏林大学学院）；University College Cork（科克大学学院）
Smoothed analysis is a framework for analyzing the complexity of an algorithm, acting as a bridge between average and worst-case behaviour. For example, Quicksort and the Simplex algorithm are widely used in practical applications, despite their heavy worst-case complexity. Smoothed complexity aims to better characterize such algorithms. Existing theoretical bounds for the smoothed complexity of sorting algorithms are still quite weak. Furthermore, empirically computing the smoothed complexity via its original definition is computationally infeasible, even for modest input sizes. In this paper…
Cricket, especially the Twenty20 format, has maximum uncertainty, where a single over can completely change the momentum of the game. With millions of people following the Indian Premier League (IPL), developing a model for predicting the outcome of its matches is a real-world problem. A cricket match depends upon various factors, and in this work, the factors which significantly influence the outcome of a Twenty20 cricket match are identified. Each player's performance in the field is considered to find out the overall weight (relative strength) of the teams. A multivariate regression based s…
Predicting Cardiovascular Complications in Post-COVID-19 Patients Using Data-Driven Machine Learning Models
College of Science, University of Al-Qadisiyah（卡迪西亚大学理学院）；Liverpool John Moors University（利物浦约翰摩尔大学）；Specialist in Internal Medicine - Pulmonary Disease（内科及肺科专科医师机构）
Predicting Chaotic System Behavior using Machine Learning Techniques
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology（电气与计算机工程学院，佐治亚理工学院）；School of Electrical and Automation Engineering, East China Jiaotong University（电气自动化工程学院，东华交通大学）
Applied Science Private University（应用科学私立大学）；Princess Sumaya University for Technology（苏玛雅公主科技大学）
Dementia is a neuropsychiatric brain disorder that usually occurs when one or more brain cells stop working partially or at all. Diagnosis of this disorder in the early phases of the disease is a vital task to rescue patients lives from bad consequences and provide them with better healthcare. Machine learning methods have been proven to be accurate in predicting dementia in the early phases of the disease. The prediction of dementia depends heavily on the type of collected data which usually are gathered from Normalized Whole Brain Volume (nWBV) and Atlas Scaling Factor (ASF) which are normal…
Precise financial series predicting has long been a difficult problem because of unstableness and many noises within the series. Although Traditional time series models like ARIMA and GARCH have been researched and proved to be effective in predicting, their performances are still far from satisfying. Machine Learning, as an emerging research field in recent years, has brought about many incredible improvements in tasks such as regressing and classifying, and it's also promising to exploit the methodology in financial time series predicting. In this paper, the predicting precision of financial…
Predicting gender by the first name is not a simple task. In many applications, especially in the natural language processing (NLP) field, this task may be necessary, mainly when considering foreign names. In this paper, we examined and implemented several machine learning algorithms, such as extra trees, KNN, Naive Bayes, SVM, random forest, gradient boosting, light GBM, logistic regression, ridge classifier, and deep neural network models, such as MLP, RNN, GRU, CNN, and BiLSTM, to classify gender through the first name. A dataset of Brazilian names is used to train and evaluate the models. …
Materials discovery is often compared to the challenge of finding a needle in a haystack. While much work has focused on accurately predicting the properties of candidate materials with machine learning (ML), which amounts to evaluating whether a given candidate is a piece of straw or a needle, less attention has been paid to a critical question: Are we searching in the right haystack? We refer to the haystack as the design space for a particular materials discovery problem (i.e. the set of possible candidate materials to synthesize), and thus frame this question as one of design space selecti…
