具有内生和动态人类社会的地球系统模拟：copan：CORE开放的世界-地球模拟框架
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework
摘要：
在人类世中分析地球系统动力学，需要明确考虑到人类社会、文化、经济和技术领域中运作的进程的规模越来越大，以及它们与地球物理、化学和生物系统中的进程之间日益增长的反馈纠缠。然而，目前最先进的地球系统模型并不代表动态的人类社会，它们与地球物理系统和宏观经济综合评估模型的反馈相互作用通常只在有限的范围内进行。本文（i）提出了构建人类世地球系统分析的世界地球模型（WEM）的设计原则，即：高达行星规模的社会（世界）-生态（地球）共同进化模型，以及（ii）提出了copan：CORE开放仿真建模框架，用于根据所提出的原则开发、组成和分析此类WEM。该框架提供了一个模块化的结构，灵活地构建和研究WEM。这些过程可以包含生物物理（如碳循环动态）、社会代谢/经济（如经济增长）和社会文化过程（如对气候政策或不断变化的社会规范进行投票）及其反馈互动，并基于基本实体类型，如：网格细胞和社会系统。因此，copan：CORE使人类世地球系统分析所需的认识灵活性成为可能，因为不同领域和思想流派用于描述地球系统中的社会代谢/经济和社会文化过程的竞争理论和方法多种多样。为了说明框架的能力，我们提出了一个示例性的和高度程式化的WEM实现copan：CORE，说明如何内生的社会文化过程和反馈可以从根本上改变宏观模型的结果。
英文摘要：
Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires to explicitly take into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth System Models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing World-Earth Models (WEM) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (World) - ecological (Earth) co-evolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g. carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic/economic (e.g. economic growth) and socio-cultural processes (e.g. voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic/economic and socio-cultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing socio-cultural processes and feedbacks could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.
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