The timescales of many physical, chemical, and biological processes are determined by first passage times (FPTs) of diffusion. The overwhelming majority of FPT research studies the time it takes a single diffusive searcher to find a target. However, the more relevant quantity in many systems is the time it takes the fastest searcher to find a target from a large group of searchers. This fastest FPT depends on extremely rare events and has a drastically faster timescale than the FPT of a given single searcher. In this work, we prove a simple explicit formula for every moment of the fastest FPT. The formula is remarkably universal, as it holds for $d$-dimensional diffusion processes (i) with general space-dependent diffusivities and force fields, (ii) on Riemannian manifolds, (iii) in the presence of reflecting obstacles, and (iv) with partially absorbing targets. Our results rigorously confirm, generalize, correct, and unify various conjectures and heuristics about the fastest FPT.
Many events in biology are triggered when a diffusing searcher finds a target, which is called a first passage time (FPT). The overwhelming majority of FPT studies have analyzed the time it takes a single searcher to find a target. However, the more relevant timescale in many biological systems is the time it takes the fastest searcher(s) out of many searchers to find a target, which is called an extreme FPT. In this paper, we apply extreme value theory to find a tractable approximation for the full probability distribution of extreme FPTs of diffusion. This approximation can be easily applied…
The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much faster than the FPT of a single searcher. Extreme FPTs of diffusion have been studied for decades, but little is known for other types of stochastic processes. In this paper, we study the distribution of extreme FPTs of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). PDMPs are a broad class of stochastic processes that evolve deterministically between random…
Many physical, chemical, and biological systems depend on the first passage time (FPT) of a diffusive searcher to a target. Typically, this FPT is much slower than the characteristic diffusion timescale. For example, this is the case if the target is small (the narrow escape problem) or if the searcher must escape a potential well. However, many systems depend on the first time a searcher finds the target out of a large group of searchers, which is the so-called extreme FPT. Since this extreme FPT vanishes in the limit of many searchers, the prohibitively slow FPTs of diffusive search can be n…
Let $\{X_i(t),t\ge0\}, i=1,2$ be two standard fractional Brownian motions being jointly Gaussian with constant cross-correlation. In this paper we derive the exact asymptotics of the joint survival function $$ \mathbb{P}\{\sup_{s\in[0,1]}X_1(s)>u,\ \sup_{t\in[0,1]}X_2(t)>u\} $$ as $u\rightarrow \infty$. A novel finding of this contribution is the exponential approximation of the joint conditional first passage times of $X_1, X_2$. As a by-product we obtain generalizations of the Borell-TIS inequality and the Piterbarg inequality for 2-dimensional Gaussian random fields.
Many biological, social, and communication systems can be modeled by ``searchers'' moving through a complex network. For example, intracellular cargo is transported on tubular networks, news and rumors spread through online social networks, and the rapid global spread of infectious diseases occurs through passengers traveling on the airport network. To understand the timescale of search/transport/spread, one commonly studies the first passage time (FPT) of a single searcher (or ``spreader'') to a target. However, in many scenarios the relevant timescale is not the FPT of a single searcher to a…
The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the wa…
We study statistics of first passage inside a cone in arbitrary spatial dimension. The probability that a diffusing particle avoids the cone boundary decays algebraically with time. The decay exponent depends on two variables: the opening angle of the cone and the spatial dimension. In four dimensions, we find an explicit expression for the exponent, and in general, we obtain it as a root of a transcendental equation involving associated Legendre functions. At large dimensions, the decay exponent depends on a single scaling variable, while roots of the parabolic cylinder function specify the s…
While records and order statistics of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables X_1, ..., X_N are fully understood, much less is known for strongly correlated random variables, which is often the situation encountered in statistical physics. Recently, it was shown, in a series of works, that one-dimensional random walk (RW) is an interesting laboratory where the influence of strong correlations on records and order statistics can be studied in detail. We review here recent exact results which have been obtained for these questions about RW, using techniques borrowed fro…
We analyze the geometrical structure of the passage times in the last passage percolation model. Viewing the passage time as a piecewise linear function of the weights we determine the domains of the various pieces, which are the subsets of the weight space that make a given path the longest one. We focus on the case when all weights are assumed to be positive, and as a result each domain is a pointed polyhedral cone. We determine the extreme rays, facets, and two-dimensional faces of each cone, and also review a well-known simplicial decomposition of the maximal cones via the so-called order …
We construct an edge-weight distribution for i.i.d. first-passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ whose limit shape is not a polygon and whose extreme points are arbitrarily dense in the boundary. Consequently, the associated Richardson-type growth model can support coexistence of a countably infinite number of distinct species, and the graph of infection has infinitely many ends.
We study the statistics of the first passage of a random walker to absorbing subsets of the boundary of compact domains in different spatial dimensions. We describe a novel diagnostic method to quantify the trajectory-to-trajectory fluctuations of the first passage, based on the distribution of the so-called uniformity index $ω$, measuring the similarity of the first passage times of two independent walkers starting at the same location. We show that the characteristic shape of $P(ω)$ exhibits a transition from unimodal to bimodal, depending on the starting point of the trajectories. From the …
We consider the passage time problem for Lévy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case), but possibly much faster (the infinite mean case), together with subexponential growth on the positive side. Local and functional versions of limit distributions are derived for the passage time itself, as well as for the position of the process just prior to passage, and the overshoot of a high level. A significant connection is made with extreme value theory…
Define a gamma-reflected process W_γ(t)=Y_H(t)-γ\inf_{s\in[0,t]}Y_H(s), t\ge0 with input process {Y_H(t), t\ge 0} which is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H\in (0,1) and a negative linear trend. In risk theory {u-W_γ(t), t\ge 0} is referred to as the risk process with tax payments of a loss-carry-forward type. For various risk processes numerous results are known for the approximation of the first and last passage times to 0 (ruin times) when the initial reserve $u$ goes to infinity. In this paper we show that for the gamma-reflected process the conditional (standardized) first a…
Exact collective first-passage statistics of N trail-interacting walkers
Laboratoire Jean Perrin, CNRS/Sorbonne Université（让·佩兰实验室，法国国家科学研究中心/索邦大学）；Collège de France（法兰西公学院）；Laboratoire de Physique Théorique de la Matière Condensée, CNRS/Sorbonne Université（凝聚态物质理论物理实验室，法国国家科学研究中心/索邦大学）
We investigate first-passage statistics of an ensemble of N noninteracting random walks on a line. Starting from a configuration in which all particles are located in the positive half-line, we study S_n(t), the probability that the nth rightmost particle remains in the positive half-line up to time t. This quantity decays algebraically, S_n (t) ~ t^{-beta_n}, in the long-time limit. Interestingly, there is a family of nontrivial first-passage exponents, beta_1<beta_2<...<beta_{N-1}; the only exception is the two-particle case where beta_1=1/3. In the N-->infinity limit, however, the exponents…
In recent years, it has been well-established that adding a restart mechanism can alter the firstpassage statistics of a stochastic processes in useful and interesting ways. Though different mecha-nisms have been investigated, we derive a probability generating function for a discrete-time FirstPassage process Under Restart and use it to examine two examples, including a biased random walkon the non-negative integers.
In this note, we study the directed first passage percolation introduced in [F. Comets, R. Fukushima, S. Nakajima and N. Yoshida: Journal of Statistical Physics, 161-(3), 577-597 (2015)]. It is proved that the shortest path from the origin to the $n$-th hyperplane makes a jump larger than a small power of $\log n$. Some numerical results are also provided, which indicates that the maximal jump size is much larger in a certain parameter region.
Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often need to be refined via calculation of a prefactor. Here it is shown how to perform these computations in practice. Specifically, sharp asymptotic estimates are derived for expectations, probabilities, and mean first passage times in a form that is geared towards numerical purposes: they require solving well-posed matrix Riccati equations involving the minimize…
We study the mean time for a random walk to traverse between two arbitrary sites of the Erdos-Renyi random graph. We develop an effective medium approximation that predicts that the mean first-passage time between pairs of nodes, as well as all moments of this first-passage time, are insensitive to the fraction p of occupied links. This prediction qualitatively agrees with numerical simulations away from the percolation threshold. Near the percolation threshold, the statistically meaningful quantity is the mean transit rate, namely, the inverse of the first-passage time. This rate varies non-m…
We study the statistics of last-passage time for linear diffusions. First we present an elementary derivation of the Laplace transform of the probability density of the last-passage time, thus recovering known results from the mathematical literature. We then illustrate them on several explicit examples. In a second step we study the spectral properties of the Schrödinger operator associated to such diffusions in an even potential $U(x) = U(-x)$, unveiling the role played by the so-called Weyl coefficient. Indeed, in this case, our approach allows us to relate the last-passage times for dual d…
We study the random geometry of first passage percolation on the complete graph equipped with independent and identically distributed edge weights, continuing the program initiated by Bhamidi and van der Hofstad [9]. We describe our results in terms of a sequence of parameters $(s_n)_{n\geq 1}$ that quantifies the extreme-value behavior of small weights, and that describes different universality classes for first passage percolation on the complete graph. We consider both $n$-independent as well as $n$-dependent edge weights. The simplest example consists of edge weights of the form $E^{s_n}$,…
We study the complete graph equipped with a topology induced by independent and identically distributed edge weights. The focus of our analysis is on the weight W_n and the number of edges H_n of the minimal weight path between two distinct vertices in the weak disorder regime. We establish novel and simple first and second moment methods using path counting to derive first order asymptotics for the considered quantities. Our results are stated in terms of a sequence of parameters (s_n) that quantifies the extreme-value behaviour of the edge weights, and that describes different universality c…
The first passage time density of a diffusion process to a time varying threshold is of primary interest in different fields. Here we consider a Brownian motion in presence of an exponentially decaying threshold to model the neuronal spiking activity. Since analytical expressions of the first passage time density are not available, we propose to approximate the curved boundary by means of a continuous two-piecewise linear threshold. Explicit expressions for the first passage time density towards the new boundary are provided. Then we introduce different approximating linear threshold and descr…
This paper analyzes a method to approximate the first passage time probability density function which turns to be particularly useful if only sample data are available. The method relies on a Laguerre-Gamma polynomial approximation and iteratively looks for the best degree of the polynomial such that the fitting function is a probability density function. The proposed iterative algorithm relies on simple and new recursion formulae involving first passage time moments. These moments can be computed recursively from cumulants, if they are known. In such a case, the approximated density can be us…
We study the statistics of infima, stopping times and passage probabilities of entropy production in nonequilibrium steady states, and show that they are universal. We consider two examples of stopping times: first-passage times of entropy production and waiting times of stochastic processes, which are the times when a system reaches for the first time a given state. Our main results are: (i) the distribution of the global infimum of entropy production is exponential with mean equal to minus Boltzmann's constant; (ii) we find the exact expressions for the passage probabilities of entropy produ…
We study first passage statistics of the Polya urn model. In this random process, the urn contains two types of balls. In each step, one ball is drawn randomly from the urn, and subsequently placed back into the urn together with an additional ball of the same type. We derive the probability G_n that the two types of balls are equal in number, for the first time, when there is a total of 2n balls. This first passage probability decays algebraically, G_n ~ n^{-2}, when n is large. We also derive the probability that a tie ever happens. This probability is between zero and one, so that a tie may…
Motivated by nucleation and molecular aggregation in physical, chemical and biological settings, we present an extension to a thorough analysis of the stochastic self-assembly of a fixed number of identical particles in a finite volume. We study the statistic of times it requires for maximal clusters to be completed, starting from a pure-monomeric particle configuration. For finite volume, we extend previous analytical approaches to the case of arbitrary size-dependent aggregation and fragmentation kinetic rates. For larger volume, we develop a scaling framework to study the behavior of the fi…
