技术在政治运动中的影响
The Impact of Technologies in Political Campaigns
摘要：
最近的政治竞选活动表明，技术是如何通过微观定位选民来提高选举结果的。我们提出并分析了一个框架，分析政治活动家如何使用技术来针对选民。投票者被表示为网络的节点。政治活动家在当地接触选民，试图说服他们。根据其技术优势和预算，政治活动家将目标锁定在网络中的某些地区，在这些地区，他们的活动能够产生最大的投票份额收益。通过分析和数字，我们量化了与传统活动相比，采用卓越的定位技术所获得的投票份额收益和节省的预算和活动家数量。此外，我们证明了技术精度必须超过一定的阈值，以导致投票份额增益或预算优势。最后，通过校准最近的美国总统选举的技术参数，我们表明，一个纯粹的目标技术优势是一致的特朗普战胜克林顿。
英文摘要：
Recent political campaigns have demonstrated how technologies are used to boost election outcomes by microtargeting voters. We propose and analyze a framework which analyzes how political activists use technologies to target voters. Voters are represented as nodes of a network. Political activists reach out locally to voters and try to convince them. Depending on their technological advantage and budget, political activists target certain regions in the network where their activities are able to generate the largest vote-share gains. Analytically and numerically, we quantify vote-share gains and savings in terms of budget and number of activists from employing superior targeting technologies compared to traditional campaigns. Moreover, we demonstrate that the technological precision must surpass a certain threshold in order to lead to a vote-share gain or budget advantage. Finally, by calibrating the technology parameters to the recent U.S. presidential election, we show that a pure targeting technology advantage is consistent with Trump winning against Clinton.
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