影响力，活动家和预算：通往总统之路
Clout, Activists and Budget: The Road to Presidency
摘要：
在最简单的情况下，政治竞选活动涉及两个相互竞争的竞选团体，试图获得大多数选票。我们提出了一个新的数学框架来研究社交网络上的政治运动动态，其组成部分是政治活动家或可说服的个人。活动家被说服并且不改变他们的观点，他们能够在社交网络中移动，以激励可说服的个人根据他们的观点投票。我们描述了活动家的数量，政治影响力，预算和竞选成本之间的复杂的相互作用对竞选结果的影响。我们还发现，选择一个运动团体派遣一定数量的活动家已经预先决定了他们的胜利。此外，我们表明，候选人在政治影响力方面的优势可以克服预算上的巨大劣势或活动家数量的减少，正如2016年美国总统大选所示。
英文摘要：
Political campaigns involve, in the simplest case, two competing campaign groups which try to obtain a majority of votes. We propose a novel mathematical framework to study political campaign dynamics on social networks whose constituents are either political activists or persuadable individuals. Activists are convinced and do not change their opinion and they are able to move around in the social network to motivate persuadable individuals to vote according to their opinion. We describe the influence of the complex interplay between the number of activists, political clout, budgets, and campaign costs on the campaign result. We also identify situations where the choice of one campaign group to send a certain number of activists already pre-determines their victory. Moreover, we show that a candidate's advantage in terms of political clout can overcome a substantial budget disadvantage or a lower number of activists, as illustrated by the US presidential election 2016.
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