One of the primary challenges of system identification is determining how much data is necessary to adequately fit a model. Non-asymptotic characterizations of the performance of system identification methods provide this knowledge. Such characterizations are available for several algorithms performing open-loop identification. Often times, however, data is collected in closed-loop. Application of open-loop identification methods to closed-loop data can result in biased estimates. One method used by subspace identification techniques to eliminate these biases involves first fitting a long-horizon autoregressive model, then performing model reduction. The asymptotic behavior of such algorithms is well characterized, but the non-asymptotic behavior is not. This work provides a non-asymptotic characterization of one particular variant of these algorithms. More specifically, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the generalization error of the produced model, as well as high probability bounds on the difference between the produced model and the finite horizon Kalman Filter.
The paper introduces novel methodologies for the identification of coefficients of switched autoregressive and switched autoregressive exogenous linear models. We consider cases which system's outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of noise for the both case of measurement noise in switched autoregressive models and process noise in switched autoregressive exogenous models. It is assumed that only partial information on the probability distribution of the noise is available. Given input-output data, we aim at identifying switched system coefficients and parameters of the distributio…
This paper studies the problem of identifying low-order linear systems via Hankel nuclear norm regularization. Hankel regularization encourages the low-rankness of the Hankel matrix, which maps to the low-orderness of the system. We provide novel statistical analysis for this regularization and carefully contrast it with the unregularized ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator. Our analysis leads to new bounds on estimating the impulse response and the Hankel matrix associated with the linear system. We first design an input excitation and show that Hankel regularization enables one to recover…
The application of neural networks to non-linear dynamic system identification tasks has a long history, which consists mostly of autoregressive approaches. Autoregression, the usage of the model outputs of previous time steps, is a method of transferring a system state between time steps, which is not necessary for modeling dynamic systems with modern neural network structures, such as gated recurrent units (GRUs) and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs). We compare the accuracy and execution performance of autoregressive and non-autoregressive implementations of a GRU and TCN on the simula…
Identification of Switched Autoregressive Systems from Large Noisy Data Sets
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学电气与计算机工程学院）；CNR-IEIIT, Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学意大利国家研究委员会信息与电子工程研究所）
A system identification approach to clustering vector autoregressive time series
School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China（华中科技大学人工智能与自动化学院）；School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia（新南威尔士大学悉尼分校电子与电信工程学院）
California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
Autoregressive exogenous (ARX) systems are the general class of input-output dynamical systems used for modeling stochastic linear dynamical systems (LDS) including partially observable LDS such as LQG systems. In this work, we study the problem of system identification and adaptive control of unknown ARX systems. We provide finite-time learning guarantees for the ARX systems under both open-loop and closed-loop data collection. Using these guarantees, we design adaptive control algorithms for unknown ARX systems with arbitrary strongly convex or convex quadratic regulating costs. Under strong…
Subspace identification (SID) has been widely used in system identification and control fields since it can estimate system models only relying on the input and output data by reliable numerical operations such as singular value decomposition (SVD). However, high-dimension Hankel matrices are involved to store these data and used to obtain the system models, which increases the computation amount of SID and leads SID not suitable for the large-scale or real-time identification tasks. In this paper, a novel fast SID method based on cloud workflow processing and container technology is proposed …
Models can be built directly from input and output data trough a process known as system identification. The Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX) models are among the most used mathematical representations in the area and has many successful applications on data-driven modeling in different fields. Such models become extremely large when they have high degree of non-linearity and long-term dependencies. Hence, a structure selection process must be performed to make them parsimonious. In the present paper, it is introduced a toolbox in Python that performs the structure selec…
Identification of a linear time-invariant dynamical system from partial observations is a fundamental problem in control theory. Particularly challenging are systems exhibiting long-term memory. A natural question is how learn such systems with non-asymptotic statistical rates depending on the inherent dimensionality (order) $d$ of the system, rather than on the possibly much larger memory length. We propose an algorithm that given a single trajectory of length $T$ with gaussian observation noise, learns the system with a near-optimal rate of $\widetilde O\left(\sqrt\frac{d}{T}\right)$ in $\ma…
The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) technique extracts the dominant modes characterizing the innate dynamical behavior of the system within the measurement data. For appropriate identification of dominant modes from the measurement data, the DMD algorithm necessitates ensuring the quality of the input measurement data sequences. On that account, for validating the usability of the dataset for the DMD algorithm, the paper proposed two conditions: Persistence of excitation (PE) and the Granger Causality Test (GCT). The virtual data sequences are designed with the hankel matrix representation su…
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to form time series prediction models such as non-linear finite-impulse response (NFIR) models as well as non-linear autoregressive (NARX) models. Gaussian process state-space models (GPSS) can be used to learn the dynamic and measurement models for a state-space representation of t…
CKKS Cryptosystem-Based Secure Parameter Identification for Multi-Participant ARX Systems
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Zhongyuan University of Technology（中原工学院）；University of Science and Technology Beijing（北京科技大学）
