Recent results in nonparametric regression show that deep learning, i.e., neural network estimates with many hidden layers, are able to circumvent the so-called curse of dimensionality in case that suitable restrictions on the structure of the regression function hold. One key feature of the neural networks used in these results is that their network architecture has a further constraint, namely the network sparsity. In this paper we show that we can get similar results also for least squares estimates based on simple fully connected neural networks with ReLU activation functions. Here either the number of neurons per hidden layer is fixed and the number of hidden layers tends to infinity suitably fast for sample size tending to infinity, or the number of hidden layers is bounded by some logarithmic factor in the sample size and the number of neurons per hidden layer tends to infinity suitably fast for sample size tending to infinity. The proof is based on new approximation results concerning deep neural networks.
Estimation of a regression function from independent and identically distributed data is considered. The $L_2$ error with integration with respect to the distribution of the predictor variable is used as the error criterion. The rate of convergence of least squares estimates based on fully connected spaces of deep neural networks with ReLU activation function is analyzed for smooth regression functions. It is shown that in case that the distribution of the predictor variable is concentrated on a manifold, these estimates achieve a rate of convergence which depends on the dimension of the manif…
The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
The Expectation-Maximization algorithm is perhaps the most broadly used algorithm for inference of latent variable problems. A theoretical understanding of its performance, however, largely remains lacking. Recent results established that EM enjoys global convergence for Gaussian Mixture Models. For Mixed Linear Regression, however, only local convergence results have been established, and those only for the high SNR regime. We show here that EM converges for mixed linear regression with two components (it is known that it may fail to converge for three or more), and moreover that this converg…
We prove statistical rates of convergence for kernel-based least squares regression from i.i.d. data using a conjugate gradient algorithm, where regularization against overfitting is obtained by early stopping. This method is related to Kernel Partial Least Squares, a regression method that combines supervised dimensionality reduction with least squares projection. Following the setting introduced in earlier related literature, we study so-called "fast convergence rates" depending on the regularity of the target regression function (measured by a source condition in terms of the kernel integra…
Technische Universität Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Concordia University（康考迪亚大学）
A regression problem with dependent data is considered. Regularity assumptions on the dependency of the data are introduced, and it is shown that under suitable structural assumptions on the regression function a deep recurrent neural network estimate is able to circumvent the curse of dimensionality.
The theoretical advances on the properties of scoring rules over the past decades have broadened the use of scoring rules in probabilistic forecasting. In meteorological forecasting, statistical postprocessing techniques are essential to improve the forecasts made by deterministic physical models. Numerous state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing techniques are based on distributional regression evaluated with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). However, theoretical properties of such evaluation with the CRPS have solely considered the unconditional framework (i.e. without covar…
When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform nearly as well as an ideal infinite ensemble (trained on the same data). The purpose of the current paper is to develop a bootstrap method for solving this problem in the context of regression --- which complements our companion paper in the context of classification (Lopes 2019). In contrast to the classification setting, the current paper shows that theoretica…
We investigate the prediction capability of the orthogonal greedy algorithm (OGA) in high-dimensional regression models with dependent observations. The rates of convergence of the prediction error of OGA are obtained under a variety of sparsity conditions. To prevent OGA from overfitting, we introduce a high-dimensional Akaike's information criterion (HDAIC) to determine the number of OGA iterations. A key contribution of this work is to show that OGA, used in conjunction with HDAIC, can achieve the optimal convergence rate without knowledge of how sparse the underlying high-dimensional model…
k Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method is a simple and popular statistical method for classification and regression. For both classification and regression problems, existing works have shown that, if the distribution of the feature vector has bounded support and the probability density function is bounded away from zero in its support, the convergence rate of the standard kNN method, in which k is the same for all test samples, is minimax optimal. On the contrary, if the distribution has unbounded support, we show that there is a gap between the convergence rate achieved by the standard kNN method a…
Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for prediction error norm and number of selected covariates are proved. The analysis in this paper gives sharp rates and does not require beta-min or irrepresentability conditions.
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop a Bernstein von-Mises type result under supremum norm in random design GP regression. Identifying both the mean and covariance function of the posterior distribution of the Gaussian process as regularized $M$-estimators, we show that the sampling distribution of the posterior me…
We propose a novel algorithm for large-scale regression problems named histogram transform ensembles (HTE), composed of random rotations, stretchings, and translations. First of all, we investigate the theoretical properties of HTE when the regression function lies in the Hölder space $C^{k,α}$, $k \in \mathbb{N}_0$, $α\in (0,1]$. In the case that $k=0, 1$, we adopt the constant regressors and develop the naïve histogram transforms (NHT). Within the space $C^{0,α}$, although almost optimal convergence rates can be derived for both single and ensemble NHT, we fail to show the benefits of ensemb…
We study the convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for mixtures of linear regressions with an arbitrary number $k$ of components. We show that as long as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is $\tildeΩ(k)$, well-initialized EM converges to the true regression parameters. Previous results for $k \geq 3$ have only established local convergence for the noiseless setting, i.e., where SNR is infinitely large. Our results enlarge the scope to the environment with noises, and notably, we establish a statistical error rate that is independent of the norm (or pairwise distance) of the regr…
We study the posterior contraction rates of a Bayesian method with Gaussian process priors in nonparametric regression and its plug-in property for differential operators. For a general class of kernels, we establish convergence rates of the posterior measure of the regression function and its derivatives, which are both minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor for functions in certain classes. Our calculation shows that the rate-optimal estimation of the regression function and its derivatives share the same choice of hyperparameter, indicating that the Bayes procedure remarkably adapts to …
We consider the minimization of composite objective functions composed of the expectation of quadratic functions and an arbitrary convex function. We study the stochastic dual averaging algorithm with a constant step-size, showing that it leads to a convergence rate of O(1/n) without strong convexity assumptions. This thus extends earlier results on least-squares regression with the Euclidean geometry to (a) all convex regularizers and constraints, and (b) all geome-tries represented by a Bregman divergence. This is achieved by a new proof technique that relates stochastic and deterministic re…
This paper revisits the special type of a neural network known under two names. In the statistics and machine learning community it is known as a multi-class logistic regression neural network. In the neural network community, it is simply the soft-max layer. The importance is underscored by its role in deep learning: as the last layer, whose autput is actually the classification of the input patterns, such as images. Our exposition focuses on mathematically rigorous derivation of the key equation expressing the gradient. The fringe benefit of our approach is a fully vectorized expression, whi…
We consider {\em Mixed Linear Regression (MLR)}, where training data have been generated from a mixture of distinct linear models (or clusters) and we seek to identify the corresponding coefficient vectors. We introduce a {\em Mixed Integer Programming (MIP)} formulation for MLR subject to regularization constraints on the coefficient vectors. We establish that as the number of training samples grows large, the MIP solution converges to the true coefficient vectors in the absence of noise. Subject to slightly stronger assumptions, we also establish that the MIP identifies the clusters from whi…
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Gradient descent, when applied to the task of logistic regression, outputs iterates which are biased to follow a unique ray defined by the data. The direction of this ray is the maximum margin predictor of a maximal linearly separable subset of the data; the gradient descent iterates converge to this ray in direction at the rate $\mathcal{O}(\ln\ln t / \ln t)$. The ray does not pass through the origin in general, and its offset is the bounded global optimum of the risk over the remaining data; gradient descent recovers this offset at a rate $\mathcal{O}((\ln t)^2 / \sqrt{t})$.
This paper investigates tradeoffs among optimization errors, statistical rates of convergence and the effect of heavy-tailed errors for high-dimensional robust regression with nonconvex regularization. When the additive errors in linear models have only bounded second moment, we show that iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-penalized adaptive Huber regression estimator satisfies exponential deviation bounds and oracle properties, including the oracle convergence rate and variable selection consistency, under a weak beta-min condition. Computationally, we need as many as $O(\log s + \log\log d)$ it…
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology（阿卜杜拉国王科技大学）
This paper carries out a large dimensional analysis of a variation of kernel ridge regression that we call \emph{centered kernel ridge regression} (CKRR), also known in the literature as kernel ridge regression with offset. This modified technique is obtained by accounting for the bias in the regression problem resulting in the old kernel ridge regression but with \emph{centered} kernels. The analysis is carried out under the assumption that the data is drawn from a Gaussian distribution and heavily relies on tools from random matrix theory (RMT). Under the regime in which the data dimension a…
In this paper we study the statistical properties of Principal Components Regression with Laplacian Eigenmaps (PCR-LE), a method for nonparametric regression based on Laplacian Eigenmaps (LE). PCR-LE works by projecting a vector of observed responses ${\bf Y} = (Y_1,\ldots,Y_n)$ onto a subspace spanned by certain eigenvectors of a neighborhood graph Laplacian. We show that PCR-LE achieves minimax rates of convergence for random design regression over Sobolev spaces. Under sufficient smoothness conditions on the design density $p$, PCR-LE achieves the optimal rates for both estimation (where th…
University of Wisconsin–Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
In the (special) smoothing spline problem one considers a variational problem with a quadratic data fidelity penalty and Laplacian regularisation. Higher order regularity can be obtained via replacing the Laplacian regulariser with a poly-Laplacian regulariser. The methodology is readily adapted to graphs and here we consider graph poly-Laplacian regularisation in a fully supervised, non-parametric, noise corrupted, regression problem. In particular, given a dataset $\{x_i\}_{i=1}^n$ and a set of noisy labels $\{y_i\}_{i=1}^n\subset\mathbb{R}$ we let $u_n:\{x_i\}_{i=1}^n\to\mathbb{R}$ be the m…
We present a novel approach for nonparametric regression using wavelet basis functions. Our proposal, $\texttt{waveMesh}$, can be applied to non-equispaced data with sample size not necessarily a power of 2. We develop an efficient proximal gradient descent algorithm for computing the estimator and establish adaptive minimax convergence rates. The main appeal of our approach is that it naturally extends to additive and sparse additive models for a potentially large number of covariates. We prove minimax optimal convergence rates under a weak compatibility condition for sparse additive models. …
RIKEN Center for AIP（理化学研究所AIP中心）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）
Tensor regression networks achieve high compression rate of neural networks while having slight impact on performances. They do so by imposing low tensor rank structure on the weight matrices of fully connected layers. In recent years, tensor regression networks have been investigated from the perspective of their compressive power, however, the regularization effect of enforcing low-rank tensor structure has not been investigated enough. We study tensor regression networks using various low-rank tensor approximations, aiming to compare the compressive and regularization power of different low…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. Recently, many flexible machine learning methods have been developed for instrumental variable estimation. However, these methods have at least one of the following limitations: (1) restricting the IV regression to be uniquely identified; (2) only obtaining estimation error rates in terms of pseudometrics (\emph{e.g.,} projected norm) rather than valid metrics (\emph{e.g.,} $L_2$ norm); or (3) imposing the so-called closedness condition that requires a certain conditional expectation operator to be suff…
First-order methods such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are currently the standard algorithm for training deep neural networks. Second-order methods, despite their better convergence rate, are rarely used in practice due to the prohibitive computational cost in calculating the second-order information. In this paper, we propose a novel Gram-Gauss-Newton (GGN) algorithm to train deep neural networks for regression problems with square loss. Our method draws inspiration from the connection between neural network optimization and kernel regression of neural tangent kernel (NTK). Different f…
Boosting is a learning scheme that combines weak prediction rules to produce a strong composite estimator, with the underlying intuition that one can obtain accurate prediction rules by combining "rough" ones. Although boosting is proved to be consistent and overfitting-resistant, its numerical convergence rate is relatively slow. The aim of this paper is to develop a new boosting strategy, called the re-scale boosting (RBoosting), to accelerate the numerical convergence rate and, consequently, improve the learning performance of boosting. Our studies show that RBoosting possesses the almost o…
University of Twente（特文特大学）；Renmin University of China（中国人民大学）；Peking University（北京大学）
In this paper, we propose a gradient boosting algorithm for large-scale regression problems called \textit{Gradient Boosted Binary Histogram Ensemble} (GBBHE) based on binary histogram partition and ensemble learning. From the theoretical perspective, by assuming the Hölder continuity of the target function, we establish the statistical convergence rate of GBBHE in the space $C^{0,α}$ and $C^{1,0}$, where a lower bound of the convergence rate for the base learner demonstrates the advantage of boosting. Moreover, in the space $C^{1,0}$, we prove that the number of iterations to achieve the fast…
In this work, we propose a new Gaussian process regression (GPR)-based multifidelity method: physics-informed CoKriging (CoPhIK). In CoKriging-based multifidelity methods, the quantities of interest are modeled as linear combinations of multiple parameterized stationary Gaussian processes (GPs), and the hyperparameters of these GPs are estimated from data via optimization. In CoPhIK, we construct a GP representing low-fidelity data using physics-informed Kriging (PhIK), and model the discrepancy between low- and high-fidelity data using a parameterized GP with hyperparameters identified via op…
Excellent variational approximations to Gaussian process posteriors have been developed which avoid the $\mathcal{O}\left(N^3\right)$ scaling with dataset size $N$. They reduce the computational cost to $\mathcal{O}\left(NM^2\right)$, with $M\ll N$ being the number of inducing variables, which summarise the process. While the computational cost seems to be linear in $N$, the true complexity of the algorithm depends on how $M$ must increase to ensure a certain quality of approximation. We address this by characterising the behavior of an upper bound on the KL divergence to the posterior. We sho…
INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；Département d’Informatique de l’Ecole Normale Supérieure（巴黎高等师范学院计算机系）
We consider the optimization of a quadratic objective function whose gradients are only accessible through a stochastic oracle that returns the gradient at any given point plus a zero-mean finite variance random error. We present the first algorithm that achieves jointly the optimal prediction error rates for least-squares regression, both in terms of forgetting of initial conditions in O(1/n 2), and in terms of dependence on the noise and dimension d of the problem, as O(d/n). Our new algorithm is based on averaged accelerated regularized gradient descent, and may also be analyzed through fin…
We study gradient descent (GD) with a constant stepsize for $\ell_2$-regularized logistic regression with linearly separable data. Classical theory suggests small stepsizes to ensure monotonic reduction of the optimization objective, achieving exponential convergence in $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(κ)$ steps with $κ$ being the condition number. Surprisingly, we show that this can be accelerated to $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrtκ)$ by simply using a large stepsize -- for which the objective evolves nonmonotonically. The acceleration brought by large stepsizes extends to minimizing the population ri…
Recently, it was demonstrated in [CS2012,CS2013] that the robustness of the classical Non-Local Means (NLM) algorithm [BCM2005] can be improved by incorporating $\ell^p (0 < p \leq 2)$ regression into the NLM framework. This general optimization framework, called Non-Local Patch Regression (NLPR), contains NLM as a special case. Denoising results on synthetic and natural images show that NLPR consistently performs better than NLM beyond a moderate noise level, and significantly so when $p$ is close to zero. An iteratively reweighted least-squares (IRLS) algorithm was proposed for solving the r…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
In this paper, we consider stochastic dual coordinate (SDCA) {\em without} strongly convex assumption or convex assumption. We show that SDCA converges linearly under mild conditions termed restricted strong convexity. This covers a wide array of popular statistical models including Lasso, group Lasso, and logistic regression with $\ell_1$ regularization, corrected Lasso and linear regression with SCAD regularizer. This significantly improves previous convergence results on SDCA for problems that are not strongly convex. As a by product, we derive a dual free form of SDCA that can handle gener…
The mean shift (MS) algorithm is a nonparametric method used to cluster sample points and find the local modes of kernel density estimates, using an idea based on iterative gradient ascent. In this paper we develop a mean-shift-inspired algorithm to estimate the modes of regression functions and partition the sample points in the input space. We prove convergence of the sequences generated by the algorithm and derive the non-asymptotic rates of convergence of the estimated local modes for the underlying regression model. We also demonstrate the utility of the algorithm for data-enabled discove…
A key functionality of emerging connected autonomous systems such as smart cities, smart transportation systems, and the industrial Internet-of-Things, is the ability to process and learn from data collected at different physical locations. This is increasingly attracting attention under the terms of distributed learning and federated learning. However, in connected autonomous systems, data transfer takes place over communication networks with often limited resources. This paper examines algorithms for communication-efficient learning for linear regression tasks by exploiting the informativene…
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；École Normale Supérieure（巴黎高等师范学院）；University of Genova（热那亚大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Italian Institute of Technology（意大利技术研究院）
In this paper, we study regression problems over a separable Hilbert space with the square loss, covering non-parametric regression over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate a class of spectral/regularized algorithms, including ridge regression, principal component regression, and gradient methods. We prove optimal, high-probability convergence results in terms of variants of norms for the studied algorithms, considering a capacity assumption on the hypothesis space and a general source condition on the target function. Consequently, we obtain almost sure convergence results with…
Learning a Class of Mixed Linear Regressions: Global Convergence under General Data Conditions
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院）；School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学数学科学学院）
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）
We study generalization properties of distributed algorithms in the setting of nonparametric regression over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We first investigate distributed stochastic gradient methods (SGM), with mini-batches and multi-passes over the data. We show that optimal generalization error bounds can be retained for distributed SGM provided that the partition level is not too large. We then extend our results to spectral-regularization algorithms (SRA), including kernel ridge regression (KRR), kernel principal component analysis, and gradient methods. Our results are super…
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Iowa State University（爱荷华州立大学）
Decentralized sparsity learning has attracted a significant amount of attention recently due to its rapidly growing applications. To obtain the robust and sparse estimators, a natural idea is to adopt the non-smooth median loss combined with a $\ell_1$ sparsity regularizer. However, most of the existing methods suffer from slow convergence performance caused by the {\em double} non-smooth objective. To accelerate the computation, in this paper, we proposed a decentralized surrogate median regression (deSMR) method for efficiently solving the decentralized sparsity learning problem. We show tha…
We propose a nonconvex estimator for joint multivariate regression and precision matrix estimation in the high dimensional regime, under sparsity constraints. A gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding is developed to solve the nonconvex estimator, and it attains a linear rate of convergence to the true regression coefficients and precision matrix simultaneously, up to the statistical error. Compared with existing methods along this line of research, which have little theoretical guarantee, the proposed algorithm not only is computationally much more efficient with provable convergenc…
