煤炭逐步淘汰对市场动态的影响：来自德国模拟模型的结果
Effects of a Coal Phase-Out on Market Dynamics: Results from a Simulation Model for Germany
摘要：
电力市场动态建模越来越具有挑战性，因为随着可变可再生能源（VRE）份额的增加，需求和供应的空间和时间不平衡变得更加明显。因此，一个高分辨率的空间和时间分布的VRE和常规发电，以及负荷，是必要的建模政策措施对电力市场的影响。此外，必须详细考虑技术限制，因为它们从根本上影响市场结果。本文介绍了德国市场区在不同情景下逐步淘汰燃煤发电的电力市场模拟模型的结果和发现。结果表明，开发的空间分辨模型可以逼真地再现市场的结果，因此，适合于分析未来的情况下，增加VRE集成和减少传统的发电能力。
英文摘要：
Modeling power market dynamics is increasingly challenging, as both spatial and temporal imbalances of demand and supply are becoming more pronounced with higher shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). Therefore, a high-resolution spatial and temporal distribution of both VRE and conventional generation, as well as the load, is necessary for modeling the effect of policy measures on the electricity market. Besides, technical constraints must be considered in detail, as they fundamentally influence market outcomes. This contribution presents the results and findings from a power market simulation model for the case of the German market zone under different scenarios phasing out coal-fired power generation. It is shown that the developed spatially resolved model can realistically reproduce market outcomes and is, therefore, suitable for the analysis of future scenarios with increased VRE integration and reduced conventional generation capacity.
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