We propose a novel classifier accuracy metric: the Bayesian Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (CBAUC). The method estimates the area under the ROC curve and is related to the recently proposed Bayesian Error Estimator. The metric can assess the quality of a classifier using only the training dataset without the need for computationally expensive cross-validation. We derive a closed-form solution of the proposed accuracy metric for any linear binary classifier under the Gaussianity assumption, and study the accuracy of the proposed estimator using simulated and real-world data. These experiments confirm that the closed-form CBAUC is both faster and more accurate than conventional AUC estimators.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) serves as a summary of a binary classifier's performance. Methods for estimating the AUC have been developed under a binormality assumption which restricts the distribution of the score produced by the classifier. However, this assumption introduces an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter and can be inappropriate, especially in the context of machine learning. This motivates us to adopt a model-free Gibbs posterior distribution for the AUC. We present the asymptotic Gibbs posterior concentration rate, and a strategy for tuning…
University of North Carolina（北卡罗来纳大学）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）；University of Maryland（马里兰大学）；Yale University（耶鲁大学）
Many problems that appear in biomedical decision making, such as diagnosing disease and predicting response to treatment, can be expressed as binary classification problems. The costs of false positives and false negatives vary across application domains and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a visual representation of this trade-off. Nonparametric estimators for the ROC curve, such as a weighted support vector machine (SVM), are desirable because they are robust to model misspecification. While weighted SVMs have great potential for estimating ROC curves, their theoretical…
We present a scalable end-to-end classifier that uses streaming physiological and medication data to accurately predict the onset of sepsis, a life-threatening complication from infections that has high mortality and morbidity. Our proposed framework models the multivariate trajectories of continuous-valued physiological time series using multitask Gaussian processes, seamlessly accounting for the high uncertainty, frequent missingness, and irregular sampling rates typically associated with real clinical data. The Gaussian process is directly connected to a black-box classifier that predicts w…
University of Maryland（马里兰大学）；Intelligent Automation, a BlueHalo Company（Intelligent Automation（BlueHalo 旗下公司））；Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学）
This paper presents channel-aware adversarial attacks against deep learning-based wireless signal classifiers. There is a transmitter that transmits signals with different modulation types. A deep neural network is used at each receiver to classify its over-the-air received signals to modulation types. In the meantime, an adversary transmits an adversarial perturbation (subject to a power budget) to fool receivers into making errors in classifying signals that are received as superpositions of transmitted signals and adversarial perturbations. First, these evasion attacks are shown to fail whe…
Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS)（海德堡理论研究所）；Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）
Throughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and associated area under the curve (AUC) measures constitute powerful tools for assessing the predictive abilities of features, markers and tests in binary classification problems. Despite its immense popularity, ROC analysis has been subject to a fundamental restriction, in that it applies to dichotomous (yes or no) outcomes only. Here we introduce ROC movies and universal ROC (UROC) curves that apply to just any linearly ordered outcome, along with an associated coefficient of predictive ability (CPA) measure.…
Australian Institute for Machine Learning（澳大利亚机器学习研究所）；University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学）
Many classification problems consider classes that form a hierarchy. Classifiers that are aware of this hierarchy may be able to make confident predictions at a coarse level despite being uncertain at the fine-grained level. While it is generally possible to vary the granularity of predictions using a threshold at inference time, most contemporary work considers only leaf-node prediction, and almost no prior work has compared methods at multiple operating points. We present an efficient algorithm to produce operating characteristic curves for any method that assigns a score to every class in t…
University of Maryland（马里兰大学）；Intelligent Automation, Inc.（智能自动化公司）
We consider a wireless communication system that consists of a transmitter, a receiver, and an adversary. The transmitter transmits signals with different modulation types, while the receiver classifies its received signals to modulation types using a deep learning-based classifier. In the meantime, the adversary makes over-the-air transmissions that are received as superimposed with the transmitter's signals to fool the classifier at the receiver into making errors. While this evasion attack has received growing interest recently, the channel effects from the adversary to the receiver have be…
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are one of the most studied family of deep learning models for signal classification, including modulation, technology, detection, and identification. In this work, we focus on technology classification based on raw I/Q samples collected from multiple synchronized receivers. As an example use case, we study protocol identification of Wi-Fi, LTE-LAA, and 5G NR-U technologies that coexist over the 5 GHz Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure (U-NII) bands. Designing and training accurate CNN classifiers involve significant time and effort that goes in…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）
Intermediate-Severity (IS) faults present milder symptoms compared to severe faults, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of IS fault examples in the training data can pose severe risks to Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these faults can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. Ensemble models are widely applied in ML and are considered promising methods for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We identify common pitfalls in t…
Optimisation and Logistics Group, The University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学优化与物流团队）
A classification algorithm, called the Linear Centralization Classifier (LCC), is introduced. The algorithm seeks to find a transformation that best maps instances from the feature space to a space where they concentrate towards the center of their own classes, while maximimizing the distance between class centers. We formulate the classifier as a quadratic program with quadratic constraints. We then simplify this formulation to a linear program that can be solved effectively using a linear programming solver (e.g., simplex-dual). We extend the formulation for LCC to enable the use of kernel f…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）
Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in …
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国理工学院）
Machine learning methods may have the potential to significantly accelerate drug discovery. However, the increasing rate of new methodological approaches being published in the literature raises the fundamental question of how models should be benchmarked and validated. We reanalyze the data generated by a recently published large-scale comparison of machine learning models for bioactivity prediction and arrive at a somewhat different conclusion. We show that the performance of support vector machines is competitive with that of deep learning methods. Additionally, using a series of numerical …
Heidelberg University（海德堡大学）；Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies（海德堡理论研究所）；Karlsruhe Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）
Probability forecasts for binary outcomes, often referred to as probabilistic classifiers or confidence scores, are ubiquitous in science and society, and methods for evaluating and comparing them are in great demand. We propose and study a triptych of diagnostic graphics that focus on distinct and complementary aspects of forecast performance: The reliability diagram addresses calibration, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve diagnoses discrimination ability, and the Murphy diagram visualizes overall predictive performance and value. A Murphy curve shows a forecast's mean element…
In this paper we present SPot, an automated tool for detecting operating segments and their related performance indicators from earnings reports. Due to their company-specific nature, operating segments cannot be detected using taxonomy-based approaches. Instead, we train a Bidirectional RNN classifier that can distinguish between common metrics such as "revenue" and company-specific metrics that are likely to be operating segments, such as "iPhone" or "cloud services". SPot surfaces the results in an interactive web interface that allows users to trace and adjust performance metrics for each …
