In isolated solar active regions, we find that the waiting times between flares correlate with flare magnitudes as determined by the GOES soft X-ray fluxes. A "build-up and release" scenario (BUR) for magnetic energy storage in the solar corona suggests the existence of such a relationship, relating the slowly varying subphotospheric energy sources to the sudden coronal energy releases of flares and CMEs. Substantial amounts of research effort had not previously found any obvious observational evidence for such a BUR process. This has posed a puzzle since coronal magnetic energy storage represents the consensus view of the basic flare mechanism. We have revisited the GOES soft X-ray flare statistics for any evidence of correlations, using two isolated active regions, and have found significant evidence for a "saturation" correlation. Rather than a "reset" form of this relaxation, in which the time \textit{before} a flare correlates with its magnitude, the "saturation" relationship results in the time \textit{after} the flare showing the correlation. The observed correlation competes with the effect of reduced GOES sensitivity, in which weaker events can be under-reported systematically. This complicates the observed correlation, and we discuss several approaches to remedy this.
We study the waiting time distributions of solar flares observed in hard X-rays with ISEE-3/ICE, HXRBS/SMM, WATCH/GRANAT, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. Although discordant results and interpretations have been published earlier, based on relatively small ranges ($< 2$ decades) of waiting times, we find that all observed distributions, spanning over 6 decades of waiting times ($Δt \approx 10^{-3}- 10^3$ hrs), can be reconciled with a single distribution function, $N(Δt) \propto λ_0 (1 + λ_0 Δt)^{-2}$, which has a powerlaw slope of $p \approx 2.0$ at large waiting times ($Δt \approx 1-1000$ hrs) and f…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the solar cycles, a much faster variation occurs. The fast variation on time scales of days and hours down to minute scale appears to be comparable with time intervals between two successive flares (waiting times). The detected fast non-stationarity of the flaring rate is discussed in the framework of the previously published stochastic models of the waiting ti…
The original concept of self-organized criticality (Bak et al.~1987), applied to solar flare statistics (Lu and Hamilton 1991), assumed a slow-driven and stationary flaring rate, which warrants time scale separation (between flare durations and inter-flare waiting times), it reproduces power-law distributions for flare peak fluxes and durations, but predicts an exponential waiting time distribution. In contrast to these classical assumptions we observe: (i) multiple energy dissipation episodes during most flares, (ii) violation of the principle of time scale separation, (iii) a fast-driven and…
Waiting time distributions of solar flares and {\sl coronal mass ejections (CMEs)} exhibit power law-like distribution functions with slopes in the range of $α_τ \approx 1.4-3.2$, as observed in annual data sets during 4 solar cycles (1974-2012). We find a close correlation between the waiting time power law slope $α_τ$ and the {\sl sunspot number (SN)}, i.e., $α_τ$ = 1.38 + 0.01 $\times$ SN. The waiting time distribution can be fitted with a Pareto-type function of the form $N(τ) = N_0$ $(τ_0 + τ)^{-α_τ}$, where the offset $τ_0$ depends on the instrumental sensitivity, the detection threshold…
Flare waiting time as a novel proxy of stellar magnetic activity
National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家天文台）；School of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学天文学与空间科学学院）；Institute for Frontiers in Astronomy and Astrophysics, Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学前沿天文与天体物理研究所）；New Cornerstone Science Laboratory, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家天文台新基石科学实验室）
In this study we aim for a deeper understanding of the power law slope, $α$, of waiting time distributions. Statistically independent events with linear behavior can be characterized by binomial, Gaussian, exponential, or Poissonian size distribution functions. In contrast, physical processes with nonlinear behavior exhibit spatio-temporal coherence (or memory) and "fat tails" in their size distributions that fit power law-like functions, as a consequence of the time variability of the mean event rate, as demonstrated by means of Bayesian block decomposition in the work of Wheatland et al.~(19…
The existence of time-energy correlations in flare occurrence is still an open and much debated problem. This study addresses the question whether statistically significant correlations are present between energies of successive flares as well as energies and waiting times. We analyze the GOES catalog with a statistical approach based on the comparison of the real catalog with a reshuffled one where energies are decorrelated. This analysis reduces the effect of background activity and is able to reveal the role of obscuration. We show the existence of non-trivial correlations between waiting t…
The distributions of solar flare energies and waiting times have not been described simultaneously by a single physical model, yet. In this research, we investigate whether recent avalanche models can describe the distributions for both the released energies and waiting times of flares in an active region. Flaring events are simulated using the modified Lu and Hamilton model (Lu and Hamilton (1991), ApJ, 380, 89) and also the optimized model (Farhang et al. (2018), ApJ, 859, 41). Applying a probability balance equation approach, we study the statistics of the simulated flaring events and inves…
A Convolutional Neural Network-Derived Catalog of Solar Flares from Soft X-Ray Observations
Sydney Institute for Astronomy, University of Sydney（悉尼大学天体物理研究所）；School of Physics, University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学物理学院）；OzGrav-Melbourne, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery（澳大利亚研究委员会引力波发现卓越中心）
We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft $WIND$ and $GOES$. Both the WTDs of solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail $\sim Δt^{-γ}$. The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is $γ_{1} =$ 0.99 for the short waiting times ($<$70 hours) and $γ_{2} =$ 1.92 for large waiting times ($>$100 hours). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions (CIRs). The power-law index $γ\sim$ 1.82 is derived …
Solar flare activity is characterised by different classification systems, both in optical and X-ray ranges. The most generally accepted classifications of solar flares describe important parameters of flares such as the maximum of brightness of the flare in the in optical range - $H_α$ flare class (change from F to B), area of the flare in $H_α$ (change from S for areas less than 2 square degrees to 4 for areas more than 24.7 square degrees) and the maximum amplitude of the soft X-ray (SXR-flux) in the band 0.1 -- 0.8 nm ($F_{0.1-0.8}^{max}$) -- X-ray flares of classes from C to X. A new clas…
Solar flares signify the sudden release of magnetic energy and are sources of so called space weather. The fine structures (below 500 km) of flares are rarely observed and are accessible to only a few instruments world-wide. Here we present observation of a solar flare using exceptionally high resolution images from the 1.6~m New Solar Telescope (NST) equipped with high order adaptive optics at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). The observation reveals the process of the flare in unprecedented detail, including the flare ribbon propagating across the sunspots, coronal rain (made of condensing …
Flares are powerful energy releases occurring in stellar atmospheres. Solar flares, the most intense energy bursts in the solar system, are however hardly noticeable in the total solar luminosity. Consequently, the total amount of energy they radiate 1) remains largely unknown and 2) has been overlooked as a potential contributor to variations in the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), i.e. the total solar flux received at Earth. Here, we report on the detection of the flare signal in the TSI even for moderate flares. We find that the total energy radiated by flares exceeds the soft X-ray emission b…
The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21-24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare productivity over the interval 1975-2012. The annual averages of flare productivity remained approximately constant during cycles 21 and 22, at about two reported M or X flares per region, but then increased significantly in the declining phase of cycle 23 (the years 2004-2005). We have confirmed this by using the independent RHESSI flare catalog to check th…
The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (Rz) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about eight and thirteen months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with Rz, of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with Rz based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays of th…
During the next solar maximum, two upcoming space-borne X-ray missions, STIX on board Solar Orbiter and MiSolFA, will perform stereoscopic X-ray observations of solar flares at two different locations: STIX at 0.28 AU (at perihelion) and up to inclinations of $\sim25^{\circ}$, and MiSolFA in a low-Earth orbit. The combined observations from these cross-calibrated detectors will allow us to infer the electron anisotropy of individual flares confidently for the first time. We simulated both instrumental and physical effects for STIX and MiSolFA including thermal shielding, background and X-ray C…
A Data-constrained Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of Successive X-class Flares in Solar Active Region 13842. II. Dynamics of the Solar Eruption Associated with the X9.0 Solar Flare
Quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) are common in solar flares and are now regularly observed in stellar flares. We present the detection of two different types of QPP signals in the thermal emission light curves of the X9.3 class solar flare SOL2017-09-06T12:02, which is the most powerful flare of Cycle 24. The period of the shorter-period QPP drifts from about 12 to 25 seconds during the flare. The observed properties of this QPP are consistent with a sausage oscillation of a plasma loop in the flaring active region. The period of the longer-period QPP is about 4 to 5 minutes. Its properties are…
A white paper prepared for the Space Studies Board, National Academy of Sciences (USA), for its Decadal Survey of Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics), reviewing and encouraging studies of flare physics in the chromosphere.
We propose a magnetic confinement nuclear fusion mechanism for the evolution of a solar flare in solar atmosphere. The mechanism agree with two observed characteristics of explosive flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that have proved to be very difficult to explain with previous mechanisms: the huge enrichments of $^{3}He$ and the high energy gamma ray radiation. The twisted magnetic flux rope is a typical structure during the solar flares, which is closely related to the solar active region that magnetic fields have almost complete control over the plasma. Consequently, the plasma insid…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough terms. In this article a forecast for the evolution of solar cycle 25 in terms of solar flares activity is presented. It is derived from an existing phenomenological model based on the coupling of an internal solar component and a planetary component. In addition to competent temporal resolution, the predictions are characterized by features which both differ…
The Geostationary Orbital Environmental Satellites (GOES) Soft X-ray (SXR) sensors have provided data relating to, inter alia, the time, intensity and duration of solar flares since the 1970s. The GOES SXR Flare List has become the standard reference catalogue for solar flares and is widely used in solar physics research and space weather. We report here that in the current version of the list there are significant differences between the mean duration of flares which occurred before May 1997 and the mean duration of flares thereafter. Our analysis shows that the reported flare timings for the…
Solar flares presumably have an impact on the deepest layers of the solar atmosphere and yet the observational evidence for such an impact is scarce. Using ten years of measurements of the Na D$_{1}$ and Na D$_2$ Fraunhofer lines, measured by GOLF onboard SOHO, we show that this photospheric line is indeed affected by flares. The effect of individual flares is hidden by solar oscillations, but a statistical analysis based on conditional averaging reveals a clear signature. Although GOLF can only probe one single wavelength at a time, we show that both wings of the Na line can nevertheless be c…
Red-shifted components of chromospheric emission lines in the hard X-ray impulsive phase of solar flares have recently been studied through their 30 s evolution with the high resolution of IRIS. Radiative-hydrodynamic flare models show that these redshifts are generally reproduced by electron-beam generated chromospheric condensations. The models produce large ambient electron densities, and the pressure broadening of hydrogen Balmer series should be readily detected in observations. To accurately interpret upcoming spectral data of flares with the DKIST, we incorporate non-ideal, non-adiabati…
Was defined reconnection rate of solar flares observed with the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI). Measured physical parameters of 15 flares, such as the temporal scale, size and magnetic flux density. Estimated reconnection inflow velocity, coronal Alfven velocity, and reconnection rate using the observed values.
We often find spectral signatures of chromospheric cold plasma ejections accompanied by flares in a wide range of spatial scales in the solar and stellar atmospheres. However, the relationship between physical quantities (such as mass, kinetic energy, and velocity) of cold ejecta and flare energy has not been investigated in a unified manner for the entire range of flare energies to date. This study analyzed the spectra of cold plasma ejections associated with small-scale flares and solar flares (energy $10^{25}-10^{29}\,\mathrm{erg}$) to supply smaller energy samples. We performed H$α$ imagin…
On the basis of the 30-year ago ground-based photometry and the recent Kepler space experiment there have been considered frequencies of occurrence and energetics of the solar-type stellar flares. It was concluded that frequencies of occurrence of such flares are proportional to sizes of stellar surfaces, and estimates of maximum flare radiation from the results of the ground-based photometry and space observations practically coincide.
As the Lyman-alpha (Lya) line of neutral hydrogen is the brightest emission line in the solar spectrum, detecting increases in irradiance due to solar flares at this wavelength can be challenging due to the very high background. Previous studies that have focused on the largest flares have shown that even these extreme cases generate enhancements in Lya of only a few percent above the background. In this study, a superposed-epoch analysis was performed on ~8500 flares greater than B1 class to determine the contribution that flares make to changes in the solar EUV irradiance. Using the peak of …
Aims. In this paper, we investigate the temporal evolution and north-south (N-S) asymmetry in the occurrence of solar flares during cycle 21, 22, and 23, and compare the results with traditional solar activity indices. Methods. The flare activity is characterized by a soft X-ray (SXR) flare index, which incorporates information about flare occurrences during a selected interval along with the peak intensity of individual events. Results. The SXR flare index correlates well with other conventional parameters of solar activity. Further, it exhibits a significantly higher correlation with sunspot…
The hydrogen Lyman-$α$ (H {\sc i} Ly$α$) emission during solar flares has rarely been studied in spatially resolved images and its physical origin has not been fully understood. In this paper, we present novel Ly$α$ images for a C1.4 solar flare (SOL2021-08-20T22:00) from the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager aboard Solar Orbiter, together with multi-waveband and multi-perspective observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Ahead and the Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft. It is found that the Ly$α$ emission has a good temporal correlation with the thermal emissions at 1--8 Å and…
A Data-constrained Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of Successive X-class Flares in Solar Active Region 13842 I. Dynamics of the Solar Eruption Associated with the X7.1 Solar Flare
We have compiled a catalog of solar flares as observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and the GOES spacecraft over a span from 1997 to 2010. During mid-1998, the cadence of EIT images was revised from two images per day to 12 minutes. However, the low temporal resolution causes significant data gaps in capturing much of the flaring phenomenon. Therefore, we monitor possible errors in flare detection by flare parameters such as temporal overlap, observational wavelength, and considering full field of view (FOV) …
The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes,…
The large (X-ray class > M1) and very large (X-ray class >X1) flares (according to the observations of GOES-15 and Preliminary data from Current Catalog of Flare Events) in solar activity cycle 24 were analyzed. The monthly average values of optical Flare Index for 2010 - 2016 were calculated. The values of the total energy of the flare E (J m-2) in the 0.1 -- 0.8 nm range at the level of the earth's atmosphere were estimated. The energy spectrum (the dependence of the number of flares with the full energy E from the value of this full energy) for 115 flares of M5 - X7 classes was built. The c…
The GOES X1 flare SOL2014-10-25T17:08:00 was a three-ribbon solar flare observed with IRIS in the near and far ultraviolet. One of the flare ribbons crossed a sunspot umbra, producing a dramatic, $\sim1000$% increase in the near-ultraviolet (NUV) continuum radiation. We comprehensively analyze the ultraviolet spectral data of the umbral flare brightenings, which provide new challenges for radiative-hydrodynamic modeling of the chromospheric velocity field and the white-light continuum radiation. The emission line profiles in the umbral flare brightenings exhibit redshifts and profile asymmetri…
In this paper, we present a study of an M2.2 class solar flare of 26 November 2000 from NOAA AR 9236. The flare was well observed by various ground based observatories (ARIES, Learmonths Solar Observatory) and space borne instruments (SOHO, HXRS, GOES) in time interval between 02:30 UT to 04:00 UT. The flare started with long arc-shape outer flare ribbon. Afterwards the main flare starts with two main ribbons. Initially the outer ribbons start to expand with an average speed ($\sim$ 20 km s$^{-1}$) and later it shows contraction. The flare was associated with partial halo coronal mass ejection…
The current fleet of space-based solar observatories offers us a wealth of opportunities to study solar flares over a range of wavelengths. Significant advances in our understanding of flare physics often come from coordinated observations between multiple instruments. Consequently, considerable efforts have been, and continue to be made to coordinate observations among instruments (e.g. through the Max Millennium Program of Solar Flare Research). However, there has been no study to date that quantifies how many flares have been observed by combinations of various instruments. Here we describe…
We present the first observational study of the onset and evolution of solar flare turbulence in the lower solar atmosphere on an unprecedented time scale of 1.7 s using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observing plasma at a temperature of 80,000 K. At this time resolution, nonthermal spectral line broadening, indicating turbulent velocity fluctuations, precedes the flare onset at this temperature and is coincident with net blue-shifts. The broadening decreases as the flare brightens and then oscillates with a period of ~10 s. These observations are consistent with turbulence in the l…
We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for large events predictions. Our results promote a new approach for large (typically X-class) solar flares predictions based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.
We study the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the deep, extended solar minimum of 2007-2009, using extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (coronagraph) images from the {\it Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory} (STEREO). Although all of the fast (v $>$ 900 km s$^{-1}$) {\it and} wide ($θ>$ 100$\arcdeg$) CMEs are associated with a flare that is at least identified in GOES soft X-ray light curves, a majority of flares with relatively high X-ray intensity for the deep solar minimum (e.g. $\gtrsim$1 \times 10^{-6}$ W m$^{-2}$ or C1) are not associated wit…
The 2014 March 29 X1 solar flare (SOL20140329T17:48) produced bright continuum emission in the far- and near-ultraviolet (NUV) and highly asymmetric chromospheric emission lines, providing long-sought constraints on the heating mechanisms of the lower atmosphere in solar flares. We analyze the continuum and emission line data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) of the brightest flaring magnetic footpoints in this flare. We compare the NUV spectra of the brightest pixels to new radiative-hydrodynamic predictions calculated with the RADYN code using constraints on a nonthermal …
Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of solar magnetic activities is intrinsic to dynamo mechanism, but still far from fully understood. In this work, the phase and amplitude asymmetry of solar QBO of Halpha flare activity in the northern and southern hemispheres is studied by the ensemble empirical mode decomposition, the cross-correlation analysis, and the wavelet transform technique. The following results are found: (1) solar QBO of Halpha flare index in the two hemispheres has a complicated phase relationship, but does not show any systematic regularity; (2) the solar cycle mode of solar Halph…
The solar flare on July 30, 2011 was of a modest X-ray class (M9.3), but it made a strong photospheric impact and produced a "sunquake," observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). In addition to the helioseismic waves (also observed with the SDO/AIA instrument), the flare caused a large expanding area of white-light emission and was accompanied by substantial restructuring of magnetic fields, leading to the rapid formation of a sunspot structure in the flare region. The flare produced no significant hard X-ray emission and no coronal ma…
In this work we describe the implementation and analysis of different optimization algorithms used for finding the best set of parameters for a Fuzzy Inference System intended to classify solar flares. The parameters will be identified among a universe of possible solutions for the algorithms, and the system will be tested in the particular case of dealing with the aim of classifying the solar flares.
We clarify a relationship of the dynamics of a solar flare and a growing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) by investigating the dynamics of magnetic fields during the X2.2-class flare taking place in the solar active region 11158 on 2011 February 15, based on simulation results obtained from Inoue et al. 2014. We found that the strongly twisted lines formed through the tether-cutting reconnection in the twisted lines of a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) can break the force balance within the magnetic field, resulting in their launch from the solar surface. We further discover that a large-scale f…
With SDO observations and a data-constrained MHD model, we identify a confined multi-ribbon flare occurred on 2010 October 25 in solar active region 11117 as a magnetic bald patch (BP) flare with strong evidences. From the photospheric magnetic field observed by SDO/HMI, we find there is indeed magnetic BPs on the PILs which match parts of the flare ribbons. From the 3D coronal magnetic field derived from a MHD relaxation model constrained by the vector magnetograms, we find strikingly good agreement of the BP separatrix surface (BPSS) footpoints with the flare ribbons, and the BPSS itself wit…
This paper presents an overview of some recent observational and theoretical results on solar flares, with an emphasis on flare impulsive-phase chromospheric properties, including: electron diagnostics, optical and UV emission, and discoveries made by the Hinode mission, especially in the EUV. A brief perspective on future observations and theoretical requirements is also given
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim to understand the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare events with GOES levels of >=M5.0 within 45 deg from disk center between May 2010 and April 2016. These criteria lead to a total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, for which we analyze the observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. More than 80% of the 29 ARs are found to exhibit delta-sunspots and at least three ARs violate Hale's polarity rule. The …
We explore the tail of various waiting time datasets of processes that follow a nonstationary Poisson distribution with a sinusoidal driver. Analytically, we find that the distribution of large waiting times of such processes can be described using a power law slope of -2.5. We show that this result applies more broadly to any nonstationary Poisson process driven periodically. Examples of such processes include solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms, and substorms. We also discuss how the power law specifically relates to the behavior of driver near its minima.
