In this paper, we propose a novel asymmetric $ε$-insensitive pinball loss function for quantile estimation. There exists some pinball loss functions which attempt to incorporate the $ε$-insensitive zone approach in it but, they fail to extend the $ε$-insensitive approach for quantile estimation in true sense. The proposed asymmetric $ε$-insensitive pinball loss function can make an asymmetric $ε$- insensitive zone of fixed width around the data and divide it using $τ$ value for the estimation of the $τ$th quantile. The use of the proposed asymmetric $ε$-insensitive pinball loss function in Support Vector Quantile Regression (SVQR) model improves its prediction ability significantly. It also brings the sparsity back in SVQR model. Further, the numerical results obtained by several experiments carried on artificial and real world datasets empirically show the efficacy of the proposed `$ε$-Support Vector Quantile Regression' ($ε$-SVQR) model over other existing SVQR models.
We investigate different methods for regularizing quantile regression when predicting either a subset of quantiles or the full inverse CDF. We show that minimizing an expected pinball loss over a continuous distribution of quantiles is a good regularizer even when only predicting a specific quantile. For predicting multiple quantiles, we propose achieving the classic goal of non-crossing quantiles by using deep lattice networks that treat the quantile as a monotonic input feature, and we discuss why monotonicity on other features is an apt regularizer for quantile regression. We show that latt…
Among the many ways of quantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles for each input, at all quantile levels, presents a correct and efficient representation of the underlying uncertainty. To achieve this, many current quantile-based methods focus on optimizing the so-called pinball loss. However, this loss restricts the scope of applicable regression models, limits the ability to target many desirable properties (e.g. calibrati…
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi（德里印度理工学院）；South Asian University（南亚大学）
This paper proposes a novel '$ν$-support vector quantile regression' ($ν$-SVQR) model for the quantile estimation. It can facilitate the automatic control over accuracy by creating a suitable asymmetric $ε$-insensitive zone according to the variance present in data. The proposed $ν$-SVQR model uses the $ν$ fraction of training data points for the estimation of the quantiles. In the $ν$-SVQR model, training points asymptotically appear above and below of the asymmetric $ε$-insensitive tube in the ratio of $1-τ$ and $τ$. Further, there are other interesting properties of the proposed $ν$-SVQR mo…
l1-norm quantile regression is a common choice if there exists outlier or heavy-tailed error in high-dimensional data sets. However, it is computationally expensive to solve this problem when the feature size of data is ultra high. As far as we know, existing screening rules can not speed up the computation of the l1-norm quantile regression, which dues to the non-differentiability of the quantile function/pinball loss. In this paper, we introduce the dual circumscribed sphere technique and propose a novel l1-norm quantile regression screening rule. Our rule is expressed as the closed-form fun…
The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Sydney Institute for Astronomy（悉尼天文研究所）
Although ubiquitous in the sciences, histogram data have not received much attention by the Deep Learning community. Whilst regression and classification tasks for scalar and vector data are routinely solved by neural networks, a principled approach for estimating histogram labels as a function of an input vector or image is lacking in the literature. We present a dedicated method for Deep Learning-based histogram regression, which incorporates cross-bin information and yields distributions over possible histograms, expressed by $τ$-quantiles of the cumulative histogram in each bin. The crux o…
We propose a novel framework for fitting additive quantile regression models, which provides well calibrated inference about the conditional quantiles and fast automatic estimation of the smoothing parameters, for model structures as diverse as those usable with distributional GAMs, while maintaining equivalent numerical efficiency and stability. The proposed methods are at once statistically rigorous and computationally efficient, because they are based on the general belief updating framework of Bissiri et al. (2016) to loss based inference, but compute by adapting the stable fitting methods…
Because different patients may response quite differently to the same drug or treatment, there is increasing interest in discovering individualized treatment rule. In particular, people are eager to find the optimal individualized treatment rules, which if followed by the whole patient population would lead to the "best" outcome. In this paper, we propose new estimators based on robust regression with general loss functions to estimate the optimal individualized treatment rules. The new estimators possess the following nice properties: first, they are robust against skewed, heterogeneous, heav…
Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) or the risk ratio (RR) and associated confidence intervals. Many such analyses use climate model output to characterize extreme event behavior with and without anthropogenic influence. However, such climate models may have biases in their representation of extreme events. To account for discrepancies in the probabilities …
Truncated conditional expectation functions are objects of interest in a wide range of economic applications, including income inequality measurement, financial risk management, and impact evaluation. They typically involve truncating the outcome variable above or below certain quantiles of its conditional distribution. In this paper, based on local linear methods, a novel, two-stage, nonparametric estimator of such functions is proposed. In this estimation problem, the conditional quantile function is a nuisance parameter that has to be estimated in the first stage. The proposed estimator is …
Support vector machines (SVMs) are special kernel based methods and belong to the most successful learning methods since more than a decade. SVMs can informally be described as a kind of regularized M-estimators for functions and have demonstrated their usefulness in many complicated real-life problems. During the last years a great part of the statistical research on SVMs has concentrated on the question how to design SVMs such that they are universally consistent and statistically robust for nonparametric classification or nonparametric regression purposes. In many applications, some qualita…
