A deep-learning-based surrogate model is developed and applied for predicting dynamic subsurface flow in channelized geological models. The surrogate model is based on deep convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, specifically a residual U-Net and a convolutional long short term memory recurrent network. Training samples entail global pressure and saturation maps, at a series of time steps, generated by simulating oil-water flow in many (1500 in our case) realizations of a 2D channelized system. After training, the `recurrent R-U-Net' surrogate model is shown to be capable of accurately predicting dynamic pressure and saturation maps and well rates (e.g., time-varying oil and water rates at production wells) for new geological realizations. Assessments demonstrating high surrogate-model accuracy are presented for an individual geological realization and for an ensemble of 500 test geomodels. The surrogate model is then used for the challenging problem of data assimilation (history matching) in a channelized system. For this study, posterior reservoir models are generated using the randomized maximum likelihood method, with the permeability field represented using the recently developed CNN-PCA parameterization. The flow responses required during the data assimilation procedure are provided by the recurrent R-U-Net. The overall approach is shown to lead to substantial reduction in prediction uncertainty. High-fidelity numerical simulation results for the posterior geomodels (generated by the surrogate-based data assimilation procedure) are shown to be in essential agreement with the recurrent R-U-Net predictions. The accuracy and dramatic speedup provided by the surrogate model suggest that it may eventually enable the application of more formal posterior sampling methods in realistic problems.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory（太平洋西北国家实验室）；INTERA Incorporated（INTERA公司）
Data assimilation for parameter and state estimation in subsurface transport problems remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of measurements, the heterogeneity of porous media, and the high computational cost of forward numerical models. We present a physics-informed deep neural networks (DNNs) machine learning method for estimating space-dependent hydraulic conductivity, hydraulic head, and concentration fields from sparse measurements. In this approach, we employ individual DNNs to approximate the unknown parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) and states (e.g., hydraulic head…
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）；TotalEnergies E&P Research and Technology（道达尔能源勘探与生产研究技术中心）；University of North Dakota, Energy & Environmental Research Center（北达科他大学能源与环境研究中心）
Fast forecasting of reservoir pressure distribution in geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we propose to use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynami…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Reduced-order modelling and low-dimensional surrogate models generated using machine learning algorithms have been widely applied in high-dimensional dynamical systems to improve the algorithmic efficiency. In this paper, we develop a system which combines reduced-order surrogate models with a novel data assimilation (DA) technique used to incorporate real-time observations from different physical spaces. We make use of local smooth surrogate functions which link the space of encoded system variables and the one of current observations to perform variational DA with a low computational cost. T…
In data assimilation, state estimation is not straightforward when the observation operator is unknown. This study proposes a method for composing a surrogate operator when the true operator is unknown. A neural network is used to improve the surrogate model iteratively to decrease the difference between the observations and the results of the surrogate model. A twin experiment suggests that the proposed method outperforms approaches that tentatively use a specific operator throughout the data assimilation process.
College of Engineering, Peking University（北京大学工学院）；School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）
Subsurface flow problems usually involve some degree of uncertainty. Consequently, uncertainty quantification is commonly necessary for subsurface flow prediction. In this work, we propose a methodology for efficient uncertainty quantification for dynamic subsurface flow with a surrogate constructed by the Theory-guided Neural Network (TgNN). The TgNN here is specially designed for problems with stochastic parameters. In the TgNN, stochastic parameters, time and location comprise the input of the neural network, while the quantity of interest is the output. The neural network is trained with a…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学）；Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校奥登计算工程与科学研究所）
Data assimilation is the process of fusing information from imperfect computer simulations with noisy, sparse measurements of reality to obtain improved estimates of the state or parameters of a dynamical system of interest. The data assimilation procedures used in many geoscience applications, such as numerical weather forecasting, are variants of the our-dimensional variational (4D-Var) algorithm. The cost of solving the underlying 4D-Var optimization problem is dominated by the cost of repeated forward and adjoint model runs. This motivates substituting the evaluations of the physical model…
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D（CEREA，巴黎高科桥梁学院与法国电力研发）；ECMWF（欧洲中期天气预报中心）
Recent studies have shown that it is possible to combine machine learning methods with data assimilation to reconstruct a dynamical system using only sparse and noisy observations of that system. The same approach can be used to correct the error of a knowledge-based model. The resulting surrogate model is hybrid, with a statistical part supplementing a physical part. In practice, the correction can be added as an integrated term (i.e. in the model resolvent) or directly inside the tendencies of the physical model. The resolvent correction is easy to implement. The tendency correction is more …
SURGIN: SURrogate-guided Generative INversion for subsurface multiphase flow with quantified uncertainty
Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University（同济大学土木工程学院地质工程系）；Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University（教育部同济大学地质与地下工程重点实验室）；Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)（卡布斯科学与技术大学（KAUST）物理科学与工程系）；State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University（同济大学海洋地质国家重点实验室）；Tencent SSV（腾讯SSV）；Tencent SD（腾讯SD）
The quantification of uncertainty on fluid flow in porous media is often hampered by multi-scale heterogeneity and insufficient site characterization. Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS), which runs numerical simulations for a large number of realization of input parameters , becomes infeasible when simulation cost is expensive or the degree of uncertainty is large. Many deep-neural-network-based methods are developed in order to replace the numerical flow simulation, but previous studies focused only on generating several snapshots of outputs at the fixed time steps, and lack to reflect the time dep…
AI enhanced data assimilation and uncertainty quantification applied to Geological Carbon Storage
Faculty of Civil Engineering；Geosciences, TU Delft, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands；Centrum Wiskunde \& Informatica, Science Park 123, 1098 XG Amsterdam, Netherlands；Mathematical Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands；Department of Earth Science；Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom；Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, CA, USA
Sorbonne University（索邦大学）；University of Reading（雷丁大学）；University of Utrecht（乌得勒支大学）；École des Ponts ParisTech（巴黎高科路桥学院）；EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发部）；Université Paris-Est（巴黎东大学）
A novel method, based on the combination of data assimilation and machine learning is introduced. The new hybrid approach is designed for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting their future states. The method consists in applying iteratively a data assimilation step, here an ensemble Kalman filter, and a neural network. Data assimilation is used to optimally combine a surrogate model with sparse noisy data. The output analysis is spatially complete and is used as a training set by the neural network to update the surrogate model. The two steps ar…
CEREA（CEREA联合实验室）；École des Ponts ParisTech（巴黎高科桥路学校）；EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发中心）；ECMWF（欧洲中期天气预报中心）
The idea of using machine learning (ML) methods to reconstruct the dynamics of a system is the topic of recent studies in the geosciences, in which the key output is a surrogate model meant to emulate the dynamical model. In order to treat sparse and noisy observations in a rigorous way, ML can be combined to data assimilation (DA). This yields a class of iterative methods in which, at each iteration a DA step assimilates the observations, and alternates with a ML step to learn the underlying dynamics of the DA analysis. In this article, we propose to use this method to correct the error of an…
Peking University（北京大学）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）
Deep-learning has achieved good performance and shown great potential for solving forward and inverse problems. In this work, two categories of innovative deep-learning based inverse modeling methods are proposed and compared. The first category is deep-learning surrogate-based inversion methods, in which the Theory-guided Neural Network (TgNN) is constructed as a deep-learning surrogate for problems with uncertain model parameters. By incorporating physical laws and other constraints, the TgNN surrogate can be constructed with limited simulation runs and accelerate the inversion process signi…
Data assimilation presents computational challenges because many high-fidelity models must be simulated. Various deep-learning-based surrogate modeling techniques have been developed to reduce the simulation costs associated with these applications. However, to construct data-driven surrogate models, several thousand high-fidelity simulation runs may be required to provide training samples, and these computations can make training prohibitively expensive. To address this issue, in this work we present a framework where most of the training simulations are performed on coarsened geomodels. Thes…
EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发中心）；European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation (CERFACS)（欧洲科学计算高级研究与培训中心）；French National Research Center (CNRS)（法国国家科学研究中心）；Université de Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics (LHSV)（圣维南水力学实验室）
Data assimilation (DA) is widely used to combine physical knowledge and observations. It is nowadays commonly used in geosciences to perform parametric calibration. In a context of climate change, old calibrations can not necessarily be used for new scenarios. This raises the question of DA computational cost, as costly physics-based numerical models need to be reanalyzed. Reduction and metamodelling represent therefore interesting perspectives, for example proposed in recent contributions as hybridization between ensemble and variational methods, to combine their advantages (efficiency, non-l…
AutoSurrogate: An LLM-Driven Multi-Agent Framework for Autonomous Construction of Deep Learning Surrogate Models in Subsurface Flow
School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Edinburgh（物理与天文学学院，爱丁堡大学）；Institute of GeoEnergy Engineering, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University（地球能源工程研究所，能源、地质科学、基础设施与社会学院，赫瑞斯泰大学）；Subsurface Energy Transition and Innovation Centre, Heriot-Watt University（地下能源转型与创新中心，赫瑞斯泰大学）
Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；Peking University（北京大学）
We build surrogate models for dynamic 3D subsurface single-phase flow problems with multiple vertical producing wells. The surrogate model provides efficient pressure estimation of the entire formation at any timestep given a stochastic permeability field, arbitrary well locations and penetration lengths, and a timestep matrix as inputs. The well production rate or bottom hole pressure can then be determined based on Peaceman's formula. The original surrogate modeling task is transformed into an image-to-image regression problem using a convolutional encoder-decoder neural network architecture…
Subsurface simulations use computational models to predict the flow of fluids (e.g., oil, water, gas) through porous media. These simulations are pivotal in industrial applications such as petroleum production, where fast and accurate models are needed for high-stake decision making, for example, for well placement optimization and field development planning. Classical finite difference numerical simulators require massive computational resources to model large-scale real-world reservoirs. Alternatively, streamline simulators and data-driven surrogate models are computationally more efficient …
Simulation of Large Systems, IPVS, University of Stuttgart, 70569, Stuttgart, Germany（德国斯图加特大学IPVS大型系统模拟方向）；Scientific Computing, IPVS, University of Stuttgart, 70569, Stuttgart, Germany（德国斯图加特大学IPVS科学计算方向）
The ability for groundwater heat pumps to meet space heating and cooling demands without relying on fossil fuels, has prompted their mass roll out in dense urban environments. In regions with high subsurface groundwater flow rates, the thermal plume generated from a heat pump's injection well can propagate downstream, affecting surrounding users and reducing their heat pump efficiency. To reduce the probability of interference, regulators often rely on simple analytical models or high fidelity groundwater simulations to determine the impact that a heat pump has on the subsurface aquifer and su…
A general control policy framework based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is introduced for closed-loop decision making in subsurface flow settings. Traditional closed-loop modeling workflows in this context involve the repeated application of data assimilation/history matching and robust optimization steps. Data assimilation can be particularly challenging in cases where both the geological style (scenario) and individual model realizations are uncertain. The closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) problem is formulated here as a partially observable Markov decision process, with the asso…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
There is an urgent need to build models to tackle Indoor Air Quality issue. Since the model should be accurate and fast, Reduced Order Modelling technique is used to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. The accuracy of the model, that represent a dynamic system, is improved integrating real data coming from sensors using Data Assimilation techniques. In this paper, we formulate a new methodology called Latent Assimilation that combines Data Assimilation and Machine Learning. We use a Convolutional neural network to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, a Long-Short-Term-Memory to buil…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学）；Computational Science Laboratory（计算科学实验室）
Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities.…
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory（太平洋西北国家实验室）；University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
We develop a physics-informed machine learning approach for large-scale data assimilation and parameter estimation and apply it for estimating transmissivity and hydraulic head in the two-dimensional steady-state subsurface flow model of the Hanford Site given synthetic measurements of said variables. In our approach, we extend the physics-informed conditional Karhunen-Loéve expansion (PICKLE) method for modeling subsurface flow with unknown flux (Neumann) and varying head (Dirichlet) boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the PICKLE method is comparable in accuracy with the standard maximum…
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）；Total E&P Research and Technology（道达尔勘探与生产研究和技术公司）；Energy & Environmental Research Center, University of North Dakota（北达科他大学能源与环境研究中心）
Fast assimilation of monitoring data to update forecasts of pressure buildup and carbon dioxide (CO2) plume migration under geologic uncertainties is a challenging problem in geologic carbon storage. The high computational cost of data assimilation with a high-dimensional parameter space impedes fast decision-making for commercial-scale reservoir management. We propose to leverage physical understandings of porous medium flow behavior with deep learning techniques to develop a fast history matching-reservoir response forecasting workflow. Applying an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilatio…
Institute for Parallel and Distributed Systems（并行与分布式系统研究所）；University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学）
Climate control of buildings makes up a significant portion of global energy consumption, with groundwater heat pumps providing a suitable alternative. To prevent possibly negative interactions between heat pumps throughout a city, city planners have to optimize their layouts in the future. We develop a novel data-driven approach for building small-scale surrogates for modelling the thermal plumes generated by groundwater heat pumps in the surrounding subsurface water. Building on a data set generated from 2D numerical simulations, we train a convolutional neural network for predicting steady-…
Data-space inversion (DSI) and related procedures represent a family of methods applicable for data assimilation in subsurface flow settings. These methods differ from model-based techniques in that they provide only posterior predictions for quantities (time series) of interest, not posterior models with calibrated parameters. DSI methods require a large number of flow simulations to first be performed on prior geological realizations. Given observed data, posterior predictions can then be generated directly. DSI operates in a Bayesian setting and provides posterior samples of the data vector…
Uncertainty quantification of two-phase flow in porous media via coupled-TgNN surrogate model
China University of Petroleum (East China)（中国石油大学（华东））；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；Peking University（北京大学）
Data assimilation is concerned with sequentially estimating a temporally-evolving state. This task, which arises in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications, is particularly challenging when the state is high-dimensional and the state-space dynamics are unknown. This paper introduces a machine learning framework for learning dynamical systems in data assimilation. Our auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters (AD-EnKFs) blend ensemble Kalman filters for state recovery with machine learning tools for learning the dynamics. In doing so, AD-EnKFs leverage the ability of ensemble …
Integrating Score-Based Diffusion Models with Machine Learning-Enhanced Localization for Advanced Data Assimilation in Geological Carbon Storage
Faculty of Civil Engineering；Geosciences, TU Delft, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands；Centrum Wiskunde \& Informatica, Science Park 123, 1098 XG Amsterdam, Netherlands；Simulation Group, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom；Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, CA, USA
Generative Lagrangian data assimilation for ocean dynamics under extreme sparsity
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA（应用数学系，加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA（电气与计算机工程系，加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）；Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA（海洋、地球与大气科学系，北卡罗来纳州立大学）
Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University（河海大学长江保护与发展研究院）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）；University of California, Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）
Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in various research fields to reduce the uncertainty of the system-of-interest. However, the commonly-adopted ES method that employs the Kalman formula, that is, ES$_\text{(K)}$, does not perform well when the probability distributions involved are non-Gaussian. To address this issue, we suggest to use deep learning (DL) to derive an alternative update scheme for ES in complex data assimilation applications. Here we show that the DL-based ES method, that is, ES$_\text{(DL)}$, is more general and flexible. In this new update scheme, a high volume of t…
ANITI, Université de Toulouse（ANITI，图卢兹大学）；Atos BDS R&D AI4Sim（Atos BDS 研发 AI4Sim）；CERFACS（欧洲科学计算研究与高级培训中心）；UFTMIP；NVIDIA（英伟达）
Performing Data Assimilation (DA) at a low cost is of prime concern in Earth system modeling, particularly at the time of big data where huge quantities of observations are available. Capitalizing on the ability of Neural Networks techniques for approximating the solution of PDE's, we incorporate Deep Learning (DL) methods into a DA framework. More precisely, we exploit the latent structure provided by autoencoders (AEs) to design an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter with model error (ETKF-Q) in the latent space. Model dynamics are also propagated within the latent space via a surrogate neural …
SURGE: Approximation and Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States；Institute for Computational \& Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States；Department of Industrial Engineering \& Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States
University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）；Heriot-Watt University（赫瑞瓦特大学）
Optimal Bayesian design techniques provide an estimate for the best parameters of an experiment in order to maximize the value of measurements prior to the actual collection of data. In other words, these techniques explore the space of possible observations and determine an experimental setup that produces maximum information about the system parameters on average. Generally, optimal Bayesian design formulations result in multiple high-dimensional integrals that are difficult to evaluate without incurring significant computational costs as each integration point corresponds to solving a coupl…
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences（环境科学合作研究所）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Physical Sciences Laboratory（物理科学实验室）；National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（美国国家海洋和大气管理局）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Scripps Institution of Oceanography（斯克里普斯海洋研究所）
Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of the DA cycle in numerical weather prediction (NWP), including the conventional numerical forecast model, the forecast error covariance matrix, and the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown how these RNNs can be initialized using DA methods to directly update the hidden/reservoir state with observations of the target system. The results indicate that…
Machine learning enhanced data assimilation framework for multiscale carbonate rock characterization
Institute of GeoEnergy Engineering, Heriot-Watt University（赫瑞-瓦特大学地质能源工程研究所）；Department of Geoscience & Engineering, Technical University of Delft（代尔夫特理工大学地球科学与工程系）；PETRONAS Research Sdn Bhd（马来西亚国家石油公司研究有限公司）
Rice University（莱斯大学）；École Normale Supérieure（巴黎高等师范学院）；PSL University（巴黎文理研究大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
Data assimilation (DA) is a key component of many forecasting models in science and engineering. DA allows one to estimate better initial conditions using an imperfect dynamical model of the system and noisy/sparse observations available from the system. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a DA algorithm that is widely used in applications involving high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. However, EnKF requires evolving large ensembles of forecasts using the dynamical model of the system. This often becomes computationally intractable, especially when the number of states of the system is v…
