Combining data assimilation and machine learning to emulate a dynamical model from sparse and noisy observations: a case study with the Lorenz 96 model
Sorbonne University（索邦大学）；University of Reading（雷丁大学）；University of Utrecht（乌得勒支大学）；École des Ponts ParisTech（巴黎高科路桥学院）；EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发部）；Université Paris-Est（巴黎东大学）
Julien Brajard, Alberto Carassi, Marc Bocquet, Laurent Bertino
A novel method, based on the combination of data assimilation and machine learning is introduced. The new hybrid approach is designed for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting their future states. The method consists in applying iteratively a data assimilation step, here an ensemble Kalman filter, and a neural network. Data assimilation is used to optimally combine a surrogate model with sparse noisy data. The output analysis is spatially complete and is used as a training set by the neural network to update the surrogate model. The two steps are then repeated iteratively. Numerical experiments have been carried out using the chaotic 40-variables Lorenz 96 model, proving both convergence and statistical skill of the proposed hybrid approach. The surrogate model shows short-term forecast skill up to two Lyapunov times, the retrieval of positive Lyapunov exponents as well as the more energetic frequencies of the power density spectrum. The sensitivity of the method to critical setup parameters is also presented: the forecast skill decreases smoothly with increased observational noise but drops abruptly if less than half of the model domain is observed. The successful synergy between data assimilation and machine learning, proven here with a low-dimensional system, encourages further investigation of such hybrids with more sophisticated dynamics.
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D（CEREA，巴黎高科桥梁学院与法国电力研发）；ECMWF（欧洲中期天气预报中心）
Recent studies have shown that it is possible to combine machine learning methods with data assimilation to reconstruct a dynamical system using only sparse and noisy observations of that system. The same approach can be used to correct the error of a knowledge-based model. The resulting surrogate model is hybrid, with a statistical part supplementing a physical part. In practice, the correction can be added as an integrated term (i.e. in the model resolvent) or directly inside the tendencies of the physical model. The resolvent correction is easy to implement. The tendency correction is more …
RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）；Technische Universität Braunschweig（布伦瑞克工业大学）；KAUST（阿卜杜拉国王科技大学）
This paper presents the machine learning-based ensemble conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) -- a filtering method based on the conditional mean filter (CMF) previously introduced in the literature. The updated mean of the CMF matches that of the posterior, obtained by applying Bayes' rule on the filter's forecast distribution. Moreover, we show that the CMF's updated covariance coincides with the expected conditional covariance. Implementing the EnCMF requires computing the conditional mean (CM). A likelihood-based estimator is prone to significant errors for small ensemble sizes, causing the f…
It is proposed to use analogs of the forecast mean to generate an ensemble of perturbations for use in ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) or ensemble variational (EnVar) methods. A new method of constructing analogs using variational autoencoders (VAEs; a machine learning method) is proposed. The resulting analog methods using analogs from a catalog (AnEnOI), and using constructed analogs (cAnEnOI), are tested in the context of a multiscale Lorenz-`96 model, with standard EnOI and an ensemble square root filter for comparison. The use of analogs from a modestly-sized catalog is shown to imp…
National Center for Atmospheric Research（美国国家大气研究中心）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；University of Victoria（维多利亚大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant structural assumptions that can limit their scalability. Machine learning models, including neural networks, are able to represent a wide range of distributions and build optimized mappings between a large number of inputs and sub-grid forcings. Recent research on machine learning p…
Auto-differentiable data assimilation: Co-learning of states, dynamics, and filtering algorithms
School of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University（普渡大学机械工程学院）；Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学统计学系）；Department of Computer Science, The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学计算机科学系）；NSF-Simons National Institute for Theory and Mathematics in Biology, Chicago, IL（国家理论与生物数学研究所）
Data assimilation is concerned with sequentially estimating a temporally-evolving state. This task, which arises in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications, is particularly challenging when the state is high-dimensional and the state-space dynamics are unknown. This paper introduces a machine learning framework for learning dynamical systems in data assimilation. Our auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters (AD-EnKFs) blend ensemble Kalman filters for state recovery with machine learning tools for learning the dynamics. In doing so, AD-EnKFs leverage the ability of ensemble …
CEREA（CEREA联合实验室）；École des Ponts ParisTech（巴黎高科桥路学校）；EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发中心）；ECMWF（欧洲中期天气预报中心）
The idea of using machine learning (ML) methods to reconstruct the dynamics of a system is the topic of recent studies in the geosciences, in which the key output is a surrogate model meant to emulate the dynamical model. In order to treat sparse and noisy observations in a rigorous way, ML can be combined to data assimilation (DA). This yields a class of iterative methods in which, at each iteration a DA step assimilates the observations, and alternates with a ML step to learn the underlying dynamics of the DA analysis. In this article, we propose to use this method to correct the error of an…
In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense, noiseless target state. Our goal is to go beyond the use of high-resolution simulations and train ML-based parametrisation using direct data, in the realistic scenario of noisy and sparse observations. The algorithm proposed in this work is a two-step process. First, data assimilation (DA) techniques are applied to estimate the full state of the system from …
School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo（东京大学工程学院）；Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency（日本气象厅气象研究所）；RIKEN Center for Computational Science（理化学研究所计算科学中心）
Prediction of spatio-temporal chaotic systems is important in various fields, such as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). While data assimilation methods have been applied in NWP, machine learning techniques, such as Reservoir Computing (RC), are recently recognized as promising tools to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems. However, the sensitivity of the skill of the machine learning based prediction to the imperfectness of observations is unclear. In this study, we evaluate the skill of RC with noisy and sparsely distributed observations. We intensively compare the performances of RC and…
Amortized Filtering and Smoothing with Conditional Normalizing Flows
School of Mathematics and Statistics（数学与统计学学院）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Faculty of Science and Technology（科学与技术学院）；Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University（北京师范大学-香港 Baptist大学）；Institute of Computational Mathematics and Scientific/Engineering Computing（计算数学与科学/工程计算研究所）；Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science（数学与系统科学学院）；Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；Department of Mathematics and Center for Computation and Technology（数学系与计算技术中心）；Louisiana State University（路易斯安那州立大学）
The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling of all system variables, we here address the learning of data-driven representations of chaotic dynamics for partially-observed systems, including significant noise patterns and possibly lower and irregular sampling setting. Instead of considering training losses based on short-t…
The development of data-informed predictive models for dynamical systems is of widespread interest in many disciplines. We present a unifying framework for blending mechanistic and machine-learning approaches to identify dynamical systems from noisily and partially observed data. We compare pure data-driven learning with hybrid models which incorporate imperfect domain knowledge. Our formulation is agnostic to the chosen machine learning model, is presented in both continuous- and discrete-time settings, and is compatible both with model errors that exhibit substantial memory and errors that a…
The reconstruction of the dynamics of an observed physical system as a surrogate model has been brought to the fore by recent advances in machine learning. To deal with partial and noisy observations in that endeavor, machine learning representations of the surrogate model can be used within a Bayesian data assimilation framework. However, these approaches require to consider long time series of observational data, meant to be assimilated all together. This paper investigates the possibility to learn both the dynamics and the state online, i.e. to update their estimates at any time, in particu…
