We propose a new multifractional stochastic process which allows for self-exciting behavior, similar to what can be seen for example in earthquakes and other self-organizing phenomena. The process can be seen as an extension of a multifractional Brownian motion, where the Hurst function is dependent on the past of the process. We define this through a stochastic Volterra equation, and we prove existence and uniqueness of this equation, as well as give bounds on the p-order moments, for all p>=1. We show convergence of an Euler-Maruyama scheme for the process, and also give the rate of convergence, which is depending on the self-exciting dynamics of the process. Moreover, we discuss different applications of this process, and give examples of different functions to model self-exciting behavior.
We consider multifractional process given by double Ito--Wiener integrals, which generalize the multifractional Rosenblatt process. We prove that this process is continuous and has a square integrable local time.
We present a general method for constructing stochastic processes with prescribed local form. Such processes include variable amplitude multifractional Brownian motion, multifractional $α$-stable processes, and multistable processes, that is processes that are locally $α(t)$-stable but where the stability index $α(t)$ varies with $t$. In particular we construct multifractional multistable processes where both the local self-similarity and stability indices vary.
We define multifractional Hermite processes which generalize and extend both multifractional Brownian motion and Hermite processes. It is done by substituting the Hurst parameter in the definition of Hermite processes as a multiple Wiener-Itô integral by a Hurst function. Then, we study the pointwise regularity of these processes, their local asymptotic self-similarity and some fractal dimensions of their graph. Our results show that the fundamental properties of multifractional Hermite processes are, as desired, governed by the Hurst function. Complements are given in the second order Wiener …
The study of non-stationary processes whose local form has controlled properties is a fruitful and important area of research, both in theory and applications. We present here a construction of multifractional multistable processes, based on the Ferguson-Klass-LePage series representation of stable processes. We consider various particular cases of interest, including multistable Lévy motion, multistable reverse Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, log-fractional multistable motion and linear multistable multifractional motion. We also compute the finite dimensional distributions of those processes. Fi…
Multistable processes, that is, processes which are, at each "time", tangent to a stable process, but where the index of stability varies along the path, have been recently introduced as models for phenomena where the intensity of jumps is non constant. In this work, we give further results on (multifractional) multistable processes related to their local structure. We show that, under certain conditions, the incremental moments display a scaling behaviour, and that the pointwise exponent is, as expected, lower than the localisability index.
This paper is devoted to establish an invariance principle where the limit process is a multifractional Gaussian process with a multifractional function which takes its values in $(1/2,1)$. Some properties, such as regularity and local self-similarity of this process are studied. Moreover the limit process is compared to the multifractional Brownian motion.
A recently proposed alternative to multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) with random Hurst exponent is studied, which we refer to as Itô-mBm. It is shown that Itô-mBm is locally self-similar. In contrast to mBm, its pathwise regularity is almost unaffected by the roughness of the functional Hurst parameter. The pathwise properties are established via a new polynomial moment condition similar to the Kolmogorov-Chentsov theorem, allowing for random local Hölder exponents. Our results are applicable to a broad class of moving average processes where pathwise regularity and long memory properties …
We construct absolute continuous stochastic processes that converge to anisotropic fractional and multifractional Brownian sheets in Besov-type spaces.
This work defines two classes of processes, that we term {\it tempered fractional multistable motion} and {\it tempered multifractional stable motion}. They are extensions of fractional multistable motion and multifractional stable motion, respectively, obtained by adding an exponential tempering to the integrands. We investigate certain basic features of these processes, including scaling property, tail probabilities, absolute moment, sample path properties, pointwise Hölder exponent, Hölder continuity of quasi norm, (strong) localisability and semi-long-range dependence structure. These proc…
We introduce a multistable subordinator, which generalizes the stable subordinator to the case of time-varying stability index. This enables us to define a multifractional Poisson process. We study properties of these processes and establish the convergence of a continuous-time random walk to the multifractional Poisson process.
Let X be an arbitrary centered Gaussian process whose trajectories are, with probability one, continuous nowhere differentiable functions. It follows from a classical result, derived from zero-one law, that, with probability one, the trajectories of X have the same global Hölder regularity over any compact interval, that is the uniform Hölder exponent does not depend on the choice of a trajectory. A similar phenomenon happens with their local Hölder regularity measured through the local Hölder exponent. Therefore, it seems natural to ask the following question: does such a phenomenon also occu…
We study the small ball asymptotics problem in $L_2$ for two generalizations of the fractional Brownian motion with variable Hurst parameter. To this end, we perform careful analysis of the singular values asymptotics for associated integral operators.
In this article we will present a new perspective on the variable order fractional calculus, which allows for differentiation and integration to a variable order, i.e. one differentiates (or integrates) a function along the path of a regularity function. The concept of multifractional calculus has been a scarcely studied topic within the field of functional analysis in the last 20 years. We develop a multifractional derivative operator which acts as the inverse of the multifractional integral operator. This is done by solving the Abel integral equation generalized to a multifractional order. W…
Stochastic calculus with respect to fractional Brownian motion (fBm) has attracted a lot of interest in recent years, motivated in particular by applications in finance and Internet traffic modeling. Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) is a Gaussian extension of fBm that allows to control the pointwise regularity of the paths of the process and to decouple it from its long range dependence properties. This generalization is obtained by replacing the constant Hurst parameter H of fBm by a function h(t). Multifractional Brownian motion has proved useful in many applications, including the ones…
The study of path behaviour of stochastic processes is a classical topic in probability theory and related areas. In this frame, a natural question one can address is: whether or not sample paths belong to a critical Hölder space? The answer to this question is negative in the case of Brownian motion and many other stochastic processes: it is well-known that despite the fact that Brownian paths satisfy, on each compact interval $I$, a Hölder condition of any order strictly less than $1/2$, they fail to belong to the critical Hölder space $\mathcal{C}^{1/2}(I)$. In this article, we show that a …
Explicit solutions for a class of linear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) driven by Gaussian Volterra processes are given. These processes include the multifractional brownian motion and the multifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. By an Itô formula, proven in the context of Malliavin calculus, the BSDE is associated to a linear second order partial differential equation with terminal condition whose solution is given by a Feynman-Kac type formula. An application to self-financing trading strategies is discussed.
We introduce a general class of stochastic processes driven by a multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) and study the estimation problems of their pointwise Hölder exponents (PHE) based on a new localized generalized quadratic variation approach (LGQV). By comparing our suggested approach with the other two existing benchmark estimation approaches (classic GQV and oscillation approach) through a simulation study, we show that our estimator has better performance in the case where the observed process is some unknown bivariate function of time and mBm. Such multifractional processes, whose PHEs …
Stochastic integration \textit{wrt} Gaussian processes has raised strong interest in recent years, motivated in particular by its applications in Internet traffic modeling, biomedicine and finance. The aim of this work is to define and develop a White Noise Theory-based anticipative stochastic calculus with respect to all Gaussian processes that have an integral representation over a real (maybe infinite) interval. Very rich, this class of Gaussian processes contains, among many others, Volterra processes (and thus fractional Brownian motion) as well as processes the regularity of which varies…
The purpose of this paper is to investigate properties of self-exciting jump processes. We derive the Laplace transform of SDE driven self-exciting processes with independent, identically distributed jump sizes. By using this Laplace transform, we find a recursive formula for the moments of the self-exciting process. The formula for the moments allow us to derive expressions for the expectation and variance of the self-exciting process. We show that self-exciting processes can exhibit both finite and infinite activity behaviour. Furthermore, we show that the scaling limit of the intensity proc…
In this paper, we study a class of self-exciting point processes. The intensity of the point process has a nonlinear dependence on the past history and time. When a new jump occurs, the intensity increases and we expect more jumps to come. Otherwise, the intensity decays. The model is a marriage between stochasticity and dynamical system. In the short-term, stochasticity plays a major role and in the long-term, dynamical system governs the limiting behavior of the system. We study the law of large numbers, central limit theorem, large deviations and asymptotics for the tail probabilities.
Multistable processes are tangent at each point to a stable process, but where the index of stability and the index of localisability varies along the path. In this work, we give two estimators of the stability and the localisability functions, and we prove the consistency of those two estimators. We illustrate these convergences with two classical examples, the Levy multistable process and the Linear Multifractional Multistable Motion.
In this paper, we address the problem of fitting multivariate Hawkes processes to potentially large-scale data in a setting where series of events are not only mutually-exciting but can also exhibit inhibitive patterns. We focus on nonparametric learning and propose a novel algorithm called MEMIP (Markovian Estimation of Mutually Interacting Processes) that makes use of polynomial approximation theory and self-concordant analysis in order to learn both triggering kernels and base intensities of events. Moreover, considering that N historical observations are available, the algorithm performs l…
A lot is known about the Hölder regularity of stochastic processes, in particular in the case of Gaussian processes. Recently, a finer analysis of the local regularity of functions, termed 2-microlocal analysis, has been introduced in a deterministic frame: through the computation of the so-called 2-microlocal frontier, it allows in particular to predict the evolution of regularity under the action of (pseudo-) differential operators. In this work, we develop a 2-microlocal analysis for the study of certain stochastic processes. We show that moments of the increments allow, under fairly genera…
We investigate Wiener-transformable markets, where the driving process is given by an adapted transformation of a Wiener process. This includes processes with long memory, like fractional Brownian motion and related processes, and, in general, Gaussian processes satisfying certain regularity conditions on their covariance functions. Our choice of markets is motivated by the well-known phenomena of the so-called `constant' and `variable depth' memory observed in real world price processes, for which fractional and multifractional models are the most adequate descriptions. Motivated by integral …
Tempered fractional Brownian motion is revisited from the viewpoint of reduced fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Many of the basic properties of the tempered fractional Brownian motion can be shown to be direct consequences or modifications of the properties of fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Mixed tempered fractional Brownian motion is introduced and its properties are considered. Tempered fractional Brownian motion is generalised from single index to two indices. Finally, tempered multifractional Brownian motion and its properties are studied.
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other fields. In this paper, we study the large deviations for nonlinear Hawkes processes. The large deviations for linear Hawkes processes has been studied by Bordenave and Torrisi. In this paper, we prove first a large deviation principle for a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, that is, a Markovian Hawkes process with nonlinear rate and exponential exci…
Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only influence the future as long as they remain active. For example, a person spreads a contagious disease only as long as they are contagious. In this paper, we define a novel generalization of the Hawkes process that we call the ephemerally self-exciting process. In this new stochastic process, the excitement from one arrival lasts for a randomly drawn activity dur…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we study fluctuations, large deviations and moderate deviations nonlinear Hawkes processes in a new asymptotic regime, the large intensity function and the small exciting function regime. It corresponds to the large baseline intensity asymptotics for the linear case, and can also be interpreted as the asymptotics for the mean process of Hawkes processes o…
Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we study the linear Hawkes process with an exponential exciting function in the asymptotic regime where the initial intensity of the Hawkes process is large. We derive limit theorems under this asymptotic regime as well as the regime when both the initial intensity and the time are large.
Stochastic integration with respect to Gaussian processes, such as fractional Brownian motion (fBm) or multifractional Brownian motion (mBm), has raised strong interest in recent years, motivated in particular by applications in finance, Internet traffic modeling and biomedicine. The aim of this work to define and develop, using White Noise Theory, an anticipative stochastic calculus with respect to a large class of Gaussian processes, denoted G, that contains, among many other processes, Volterra processes (and thus fBm) and also mBm. This stochastic calculus includes a definition of a stocha…
We consider a self-exciting counting process, the parameters of which depend on a hidden finite-state Markov chain. We derive the optimal filter and smoother for the hidden chain based on observation of the jump process. This filter is in closed form and is finite dimensional. We demonstrate the performance of this filter both with simulated data, and by analysing the `flash crash' of 6th May 2010 in this framework.
The paper discusses multivariate self- and cross-exciting processes. We define a class of multivariate point processes via their corresponding stochastic intensity processes that are driven by stochastic jumps. Essentially, there is a jump in an intensity process whenever the corresponding point process records an event. An attribute of our modelling class is that not only a jump is recorded at each instance, but also its magnitude. This allows large jumps to influence the intensity to a larger degree than smaller jumps. We give conditions which guarantee that the process is stable, in the sen…
We introduce a new stochastic model for the variations of asset prices at the tick-by-tick level in dimension 1 (for a single asset) and 2 (for a pair of assets). The construction is based on marked point processes and relies on linear self and mutually exciting stochastic intensities as introduced by Hawkes. We associate a counting process with the positive and negative jumps of an asset price. By coupling suitably the stochastic intensities of upward and downward changes of prices for several assets simultaneously, we can reproduce microstructure noise (i.e. strong microscopic mean reversion…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past events. There are applications in finance, neuroscience, genome analysis, seismology, sociology, criminology and many other fields. We first survey the known results about the theory and applications of both linear and nonlinear Hawkes processes. Then, we obtain the central limit theorem and process-level, i.e. level-3 large deviations for nonlinear Hawkes proce…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we study precise deviations for Hawkes processes for large time asymptotics, that strictly extends and improves the existing results in the literature. Numerical illustrations will also be provided.
In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large deviation results, as time growths to infinity. The proofs lie on a renewal structure for these processes introduced in Costa et al. (2020) which leads to a comparison with cumulative processes. Explicit computations are made on some examples. Similar results have been obtained in the literature for self-exciting Hawkes processes only.
Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where the baseline intensity is time-dependent, the exciting function is a general function and the jump sizes of the intensity process are independent and identically distributed non-negative random variables. This Hawkes model is non-Markovian in general. We obtain closed-form formulas for the Laplace transform, moments and the distribution of the Hawkes process. …
Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional central limit theorem for nonlinear Hawkes process. Under the same assumptions, we also obtain a Strassen's invariance principle, i.e. a functional law of the iterated logarithm.
The conditional intensity (CI) of a counting process $Y_t$ is based on the minimal knowledge $\mathcal{F}_t^Y$, i.e., on the observation of $Y_t$ alone. Prominently, the mutual information rate of a signal and its Poisson channel output is a difference functional between the CI and the intensity that has full knowledge about the input. While the CI of Markov-modulated Poisson processes evolves according to Snyder's filter, self-exciting processes, e.g., Hawkes processes, specify the CI via the history of $Y_t$. The emergence of the CI as a self-contained stochastic process prompts us to bring …
We introduce and study an alternative form of the chaotic expansion for counting processes using the Poisson imbedding representation; we name this alternative form \textit{pseudo-chaotic expansion}. As an application, we prove that the coefficients of this pseudo-chaotic expansion for any linear Hawkes process are obtained in closed form, whereas those of the usual chaotic expansion cannot be derived explicitly. Finally, we study further the structure of linear Hawkes processes by constructing an example of a process in a pseudo-chaotic form that satisfies the stochastic self-exciting intensi…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we study linear Hawkes process with an exponential kernel in the asymptotic regime where the initial intensity of the Hawkes process is large. We establish large deviations for Hawkes processes in this regime as well as the regime when both the initial intensity and the time are large…
This paper is devoted to the study of the number of customers in infinite-server systems driven by Hawkes processes. In these systems, the self-exciting arrival process is assumed to be represented by a Hawkes process and the self-exciting service process by a state-dependent Hawkes process (sdHawkes process). Under some suitable conditions, for the Hawkes/sdHawkes/infty system, the Markov property of the system is derived. The joint time-dependent distribution of the number of customers in the system, the arrival intensity and the server intensity is characterised by a system of differential …
Most of the existing literature on optimal trade execution in limit order book models assumes that resilience is positive. But negative resilience also has a natural interpretation, as it models self-exciting behaviour of the price impact, where trading activities of the large investor stimulate other market participants to trade in the same direction. In the paper we discuss several new qualitative effects on optimal trade execution that arise when we allow resilience to take negative values. We do this in a framework where both market depth and resilience are stochastic processes.
We propose a recursive method for the computation of the cumulants of self-exciting point processes of Hawkes type, based on standard combinatorial tools such as Bell polynomials. This closed-form approach is easier to implement on higher-order cumulants in comparison with existing methods based on differential equations, tree enumeration or martingale arguments. The results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations, and also apply to the computation of joint cumulants generated by multidimensional self-exciting processes.
A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history of the point process. Hawkes process has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we prove a functional central limit theorem for stationary Hawkes processes in the asymptotic regime where the baseline intensity is large. The limit is a non-Markovian Gaussian process with depe…
Matryoshka dolls, the traditional Russian nesting figurines, are known world-wide for each doll's encapsulation of a sequence of smaller dolls. In this paper, we identify a large class of Markov process whose moments are easy to compute by exploiting the structure of a new sequence of nested matrices we call Matryoshkhan matrices. We characterize the salient properties of Matryoshkhan matrices that allow us to compute these moments in closed form at a specific time without computing the entire path of the process. This speeds up the computation of the Markov process moments significantly in co…
