Yiping ZHANG, Myron HLYNKA, Percy H. BRILL
Probability generating functions for first passage times of Markov chains are found using the method of collective marks. A system of equations is found which can be used to obtain moments of the first passage times.
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This article describes an accurate procedure for computing the mean first passage times of a finite irreducible Markov chain and a Markov renewal process. The method is a refinement to the Kohlas, Zeit fur Oper Res, 30,197-207, (1986) procedure. The technique is numerically stable in that it doesn't involve subtractions. Algebraic expressions for the special cases of one, two, three and four states are derived. A consequence of the procedure is that the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain does not need to be derived in advance but can be found accurately from the derived mean …
The spatial symmetry property of truncated birth-death processes studied in Di Crescenzo [6] is extended to a wider family of continuous-time Markov chains. We show that it yields simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities, and apply it to a bilateral birth-death process with jumps. It is finally proved that this symmetry property is preserved within the family of strongly similar Markov chains.
Mean First Passage Times and Fundamental Tensors of Higher Order Markov Chains
本文研究高阶遍历马尔可夫链中一个或多个状态变为吸收态后的性质，证明所得链必为吸收态，并给出基本张量方程的非奇异性和求解函数，同时建立平均首达时间张量与基本张量的联系。
Consider a Markov chain with finite state $\{0, 1, ..., d\}$. We give the generation functions (or Laplace transforms) of absorbing (passage) time in the following two situations : (1) the absorbing time of state $d$ when the chain starts from any state $i$ and absorbing at state $d$; (2) the passage time of any state $i$ when the chain starts from the stationary distribution supposed the chain is time reversible and ergodic. Example shows that it is more convenient compared with the existing methods, especially we can calculate the expectation of the absorbing time directly.
In this paper, we discuss the computation of first passage moments of a time-homogeneous semi-Markov process (SMP) with finite state space to certain of its states that possess the property of universal accessibility (UA). A UA state is one which is accessible from any other state of the SMP, but which may or may not connect back to one or more other states. An important characteristic of UA is that it is the state-level version of the oft-invoked process-level property of irreducibility. We adapt existing results for irreducible SMPs to the derivation of an analytical matrix expression for th…
We consider the first-passage percolation problem on the random graph with vertex set N\times{0,1}, edges joining vertices at Euclidean distance equal to unity and independent exponential edge weights. We provide a central limit theorem for the first-passage times l_n between the vertices (0,0) and (n,0), thus extending earlier results about the almost sure convergence of l_n/n as n goes to infinity. We use generating function techniques to compute the n-step transition kernels of a closely related Markov chain which can be used to calculate explicitly the asymptotic variance in the central li…
It is considered the integrated process $X(t)= x + \int _0^t Y(s) ds ,$ where $Y(t)$ is a Gauss-Markov process starting from $y.$ The first-passage time (FPT) of $X$ through a constant boundary and the first-exit time of $X$ from an interval $(a,b)$ are investigated, generalizing some results on FPT of integrated Brownian motion. An essential role is played by a useful representation of $X,$ in terms of Brownian motion which allows to reduces the FPT of $X$ to that of a time-changed Brownian motion. Some explicit examples are reported; when theoretical calculation is not available, the quantit…
In this paper we consider the first passage process of a spectrally negative Markov additive process (MAP). The law of this process is uniquely characterized by a certain matrix function, which plays a crucial role in fluctuation theory. We show how to identify this matrix using the theory of Jordan chains associated with analytic matrix functions. Importantly, our result also provides us with a technique, which can be used to derive various further identities. We then proceed to show how to compute the stationary distribution associated with a one-sided reflected (at zero) MAP for both the sp…
Let $(X,\p_x)$ be a continuous time Markov chain with finite or countable state space $S$ and let $T$ be its first passage time in a subset $D$ of $S$. It is well known that if $μ$ is a quasi-stationary distribution relatively to $T$, then this time is exponentially distributed under $\p_μ$. However, quasi-stationarity is not a necessary condition. In this paper, we determine more general conditions on an initial distribution $μ$ for $T$ to be exponentially distributed under $\p_μ$. We show in addition how quasi-stationary distributions can be expressed in terms of any initial law which makes …
In this paper, we study Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with Markov modulation, whose parameters depend on an external underlying two-state Markov process. Conditional mean and variance of such processes under given modulation are investigated from the point of view of the first passage probabilities and invariant measures. It is also studied the limiting behaviour under scaling conditions similar to Kac's scaling.
Suppose $X$ is a Markov process on the real line (or some interval). Do the distributions of its first passage times downwards (fptd) determine its law? In this paper we treat some special cases of this question. We prove that if the fptd process has the law of a subordinator, then necessarily $X$ is a Lévy process with no negative jumps; specifying the law of the subordinator determines the law of $X$ uniquely. We further show that, likewise, the classes of continuous-state branching processes and of self-similar processes without negative jumps are also respectively characterised by a certai…
Exact collective first-passage statistics of N trail-interacting walkers
研究N个通过共享轨迹场相互作用的一维随机漫步者，推导对轨迹有饱和响应的自相互作用漫步者的持续指数和分裂概率精确表达式，发现漫步者探索方式不影响分裂概率，为相关系统首次通过现象建立框架。
We determine the asymptotic speed of the first-passage percolation process on some ladder-like graphs (or width-2 stretches) when the times associated with different edges are independent and exponentially distributed but not necessarily all with the same mean. The method uses a particular Markov chain associated with the first-passage percolation process and properties of its stationary distribution.
In this paper we analyze the distributional properties of a busy period in an on-off fluid queue and the a first passage time in a fluid queue driven by a finite state Markov process. In particular, we show that in Anick-Mitra-Sondhi model the first passage time has a IFR distribution and the busy period has a DFR distribution.
We establish general theorems quantifying the notion of recurrence --- through an estimation of the moments of passage times --- for irreducible continuous-time Markov chains on countably infinite state spaces. Sharp conditions of occurrence of the phenomenon of explosion are also obtained. A new phenomenon of implosion is introduced and sharp conditions for its occurrence are proven. The general results are illustrated by treating models having a difficult behaviour even in discrete time.
We construct a stochastic fluid process with an underlying piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) akin to the one used in the construction of the rational arrival process (RAP), which we call the RAP-modulated fluid process. As opposed to the classic stochastic fluid process driven by a Markov jump process, the underlying PDMP of a RAP-modulated fluid process has a continuous state space and is driven by matrix parameters which may not be related to an intensity matrix. Through novel techniques we show how well-known formulae associated to the classic stochastic fluid process, such as f…
Understanding the space-time features of how a Lévy process crosses a constant barrier for the first time, and indeed the last time, is a problem which is central to many models in applied probability such as queueing theory, financial and actuarial mathematics, optimal stopping problems, the theory of branching processes to name but a few. In \cite{KD} a new quintuple law was established for a general Lévy process at first passage below a fixed level. In this article we use the quintuple law to establish a family of related joint laws, which we call $n$-tuple laws, for Lévy processes, Lévy pr…
Exit problems for additive-increase and multiplicative-decrease Markov-modulated processes
研究有限状态马尔可夫调制加性增加乘性减少过程的一侧、两侧及反射退出问题，通过首次跳跃分解、拉普拉斯变换和递归方法推导退出矩阵，并构造相关杜布鞅。
Resetting optimized competitive first-passage outcomes in non-Markovian systems
研究非马尔可夫系统中随机重置对竞争首次通过过程的影响，通过CTRW框架分析重置如何选择性增强目标事件，并通过条件均值首次通过时间评估重置效率。
We consider two competing first passage percolation processes started from uniformly chosen subsets of a random regular graph on $N$ vertices. The processes are allowed to spread with different rates, start from vertex subsets of different sizes or at different times. We obtain tight results regarding the sizes of the vertex sets occupied by each process, showing that in the generic situation one process will occupy $Θ(1)N^α$ vertices, for some $0 < α< 1$. The value of $α$ is calculated in terms of the relative rates of the processes, as well as the sizes of the initial vertex sets and the pos…
A popular method to compute first-passage probabilities in continuous-time Markov chains is by numerically inverting their Laplace transforms. Past decades, the scientific computing community has developed excellent numerical methods for solving problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), making the availability of a Laplace transform not necessary here for computational purposes. In this study we demonstrate that numerical PDE problem solvers are suitable for computing first passage times, and can be very efficient for this purpose. By doing extensive computational experiments…
Defaultable perpetual Russian option Under a last passage time model
本文在Black-Scholes市场中，基于股价运行最大值的最后通过时间建模违约时间，推导了可违约永续俄罗斯期权的估值公式。
For a spectrally negative Lévy process (snLp) $X$, killed according to a rate that is a function $ω$ of its position, we analyse the exit probability of the one-sided upwards-passage problem. When $ω$ is strictly positive, this problem is related to the determination of the Laplace transform of the first passage time upwards for $X$ that has been time-changed by the inverse of the additive functional $\int_0^\cdot ω(X_u)du$. In particular our findings thus shed extra light on related results concerning first passage times upwards (downwards) of spectrally negative positive self-similar Markov …
Accelerated first-passage dynamics in a non-Markovian feedback Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process
本研究探讨具有时间平均反馈的非马尔可夫一维 Ornstein--Uhlenbeck 过程的首达动力学，利用弱噪声大偏差理论推导最可能路径，证明反馈通过降低有效能垒将最优首达时间从无限转为有限，从而加速动力学，为控制罕见事件提供机制。
This note is motivated by connections between the online and offline problems of selecting a possibly long subsequence from a Poisson-paced sequence of uniform marks under either a monotonicity or a sum constraint. The offline problem with the sum constraint amounts to counting the Poisson arrivals before their total exceeds a certain level. A precise asymptotics for the mean count is obtained by coupling with a nonlinear pure birth process.
We consider first-passage percolation on a ladder, i.e. the graph {0,1,...}*{0,1} where nodes at distance 1 are joined by an edge, and the times are exponentially i.i.d. with mean 1. We find an appropriate Markov chain to calculate an explicit expression for the time constant whose numerical value is approximately 0.6827. This time constant is the long-term average inverse speed of the process. We also calculate the average residual time.
Jacobi processes with jumps as neuronal models: a first passage time analysis
该研究提出带向下跳跃的马尔可夫雅可比过程作为神经元模型，通过分析其首次通过时间研究峰峰间期，推导拉普拉斯变换与期望闭式解，并开展神经元放电率数值研究。
A regime-switching geometric Brownian motion is used to model a geometric Brownian motion with its coefficients changing randomly according to a Markov chain. In this work, we give a complete characterization of the recurrent property of this process. The long time behavior of this process such as its $p$-th moment is also studied. Moreover, the quantitative properties of the regime-switching geometric Brownian motion with two-state switching are investigated to show the difference between geometric Brownian motion with switching and without switching. At last, some estimates of its first pass…
Martingale approach for first-passage problems of time-additive observables in Markov processes
该研究提出基于Perron鞅的方法，推导马尔可夫过程时间加性可观测量大区间极限下首通问题的分裂概率、首通时间累积量等表达式，揭示双边界首通统计差异，并用游动- tumble粒子实例验证。
The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the Markov chain. Expressions for the probability generating function, and hence the probability distribution of the mixing time starting in state i are derived and special cases explored. This extends the results of the author regarding the expected time to mixing [J.J. Hunter, Mixing times with applications to perturbed Markov chains, Linear Algebra Appl. 417 (2…
This article studies a linear scalar delay differential equation subject to small multiplicative power tail Lévy noise. We solve the first passage (the Kramers) problem with probabilistic methods and discover an asymptotic loss of memory in this non-Markovian system. Furthermore, the mean exit time increases as the power of the small noise amplitude, whereas the pre-factor accounts for memory effects. In particular, we discover a non-linear delay-induced exit acceleration due to a non-normal growth phenomenon. Our results are illustrated in the well-known linear delay oscillator driven by $α$-…
A simple lemma bounds $\mathrm{s.d.}(T)/\mathbb{E} T$ for hitting times $T$ in Markov chains with a certain strong monotonicity property. We show how this lemma may be applied to several increasing set-valued processes. Our main result concerns a model of first passage percolation on a finite graph, where the traversal times of edges are independent Exponentials with arbitrary rates. Consider the percolation time $X$ between two arbitrary vertices. We prove that $\mathrm{s.d.}(X)/\mathbb{E} X$ is small if and only if $Ξ/\mathbb{E} X$ is small, where $Ξ$ is the maximal edge-traversal time in th…
Let {X_n,n\geq0} be a Markov chain on a general state space X with transition probability P and stationary probability π. Suppose an additive component S_n takes values in the real line R and is adjoined to the chain such that {(X_n,S_n),n\geq0} is a Markov random walk. In this paper, we prove a uniform Markov renewal theorem with an estimate on the rate of convergence. This result is applied to boundary crossing problems for {(X_n,S_n),n\geq0}. To be more precise, for given b\geq0, define the stopping time τ=τ(b)=inf{n:S_n>b}. When a drift μof the random walk S_n is 0, we derive a one-term Ed…
Let $m_{ij}$ be the mean first passage time from state $i$ to state $j$ in an $n$-state ergodic homogeneous Markov chain with transition matrix $T$. Let $G$ be the weighted digraph without loops whose vertex set coincides with the set of states of the Markov chain and arc weights are equal to the corresponding transition probabilities. We give a graph-theoretic interpretation to $m_{ij}$. Namely, We show that $m_{ij}=f_{ij}/q_j$ if $i\ne j$ and $m_{ij}=1/\tilde q_j$ if $i=j$, where $f_{ij}$ is the total weight of 2-tree spanning converging forests in $G$ that have one tree containing $i$ and t…
For a continuous-time Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process, $X$, with immigration and culling, $0$ as an absorbing state, call $X^q$ the process that results from killing $X$ at rate $q\in (0,\infty)$, followed by stopping it on extinction or explosion. Then an explicit identification of the relevant harmonic functions of $X^q$ allows to determine the Laplace transforms (at argument $q$) of the first passage times downwards and of the explosion time for $X$. Strictly speaking, this is accomplished only when the killing rate $q$ is sufficiently large (but always when the branching mechanism is not su…
The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much faster than the FPT of a single searcher. Extreme FPTs of diffusion have been studied for decades, but little is known for other types of stochastic processes. In this paper, we study the distribution of extreme FPTs of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). PDMPs are a broad class of stochastic processes that evolve deterministically between random…
Hybrid stochastic differential equations are a useful tool to model continuously varying stochastic systems which are modulated by a random environment that may depend on the system state itself. In this paper, we establish the pathwise convergence of the solutions to hybrid stochastic differential equations via space-grid discretizations. While time-grid discretizations are a classical approach for simulation purposes, our space-grid discretization provides a link with multi-regime Markov modulated Brownian motions, leading to computational tractability. We exploit our convergence result to o…
The Segerdahl process (Segerdahl (1955)), characterized by exponential claims and affine drift, has drawn a considerable amount of interest -- see, for example, (Tichy (1984); Avram and Usabel (2008), due to its economic interest (it is the simplest risk process which takes into account the effect of interest rates). It is also the simplest non-Levy, non-diffusion example of a spectrally negative Markov risk model. Note that for both spectrally negative Levy and diffusion processes, first passage theories which are based on identifying two basic monotone harmonic functions/martingales have bee…
The Inverse First Passage time problem seeks to determine the boundary corresponding to a given stochastic process and a fixed first passage time distribution. Here, we determine the numerical solution of this problem in the case of a two dimensional Gauss-Markov diffusion process. We investigate the boundary shape corresponding to Inverse Gaussian or Gamma first passage time distributions for different choices of the parameters, including heavy and light tails instances. Applications in neuroscience framework are illustrated.
The Computation of the Mean First Passage Times for Markov Chains
本文综述了计算马尔可夫链平均首次通过时间的各种方法，提出了一种新的精确计算技术，并与其他方法进行了比较。
In first-passage percolation, one assigns i.i.d. nonnegative weights $(t_e)$ to the edges of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ and studies the induced distance (passage time) $T(x,y)$ between vertices $x$ and $y$. It is known that for $d=2$, the fluctuations of $T(x,y)$ are at least order $\sqrt{\log |x-y|}$ under mild assumptions on $t_e$. We study the question of fluctuation lower bounds for $T_n$, the minimal passage time between two opposite sides of an $n$ by $n$ square. The main result is that, under a curvature assumption, this quantity has fluctuations at least of order $n^{1/8-ε}$ for any $ε>0$ when the…
We consider a simplified model of the continuous double auction where prices are integers varying from $1$ to $N$ with limit orders and market orders, but quantity per order limited to a single share. For this model, the order process is equivalent to two $M/M/1$ queues. We study the behaviour of the auction in the low-traffic limit where limit orders are immediately transformed into market orders. In this limit, the distribution of prices can be computed exactly and gives a reasonable approximation of the price distribution when the ratio between the rate of order arrivals and the rate of ord…
In this paper a class of Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes driven by compound Poisson processes is considered. The jumps arrive with exponential waiting times and are allowed to be two-sided. The jumps are assumed to form an iid sequence with distribution a mixture (not necessarily convex) of exponential distributions, independent of everything else. The fact that downward jumps are allowed makes passage of a given lower level possible both by continuity and by a jump. The time of this passage and the possible undershoot (in the jump case) is considered. By finding partial eigenfunctions for the i…
The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the wa…
One model of real-life spreading processes is First Passage Percolation (also called SI model) on random graphs. Social interactions often follow bursty patterns, which are usually modelled with i.i.d.~heavy-tailed passage times on edges. On the other hand, random graphs are often locally tree-like, and spreading on trees with leaves might be very slow, because of bottleneck edges with huge passage times. Here we consider the SI model with passage times following a power law distribution $\mathbb{P}(ξ>t)\sim t^{-α}$, with infinite mean. For any finite connected graph $G$ with a root $s$, we fi…
Algebraic formulas for first-passage times of Markov processes in the linear framework: generalising the work of Hill and Kac
本文在图论线性框架下，引入Hill算子与unraveling算子，推广Hill和Kac的工作，得到马尔可夫过程首达时间、首达时间矩、平均 recurrence 时间等的有理代数公式，整合了瞬态与稳态性质的关系。
Beyond Poisson: First-Passage Asymptotics of Renewal Shot Noise
本文提出了一种新的方法，推导了renewal射线噪声在一般到达统计和指数标记下的首次通过时间均值的通用渐进行为公式，揭示了非泊松到达统计对阿伦尼乌斯定律的影响，并展示了大阈值下FPT分布的指数特性。
In this paper, we aim to provide probabilistic and combinatorial insights into tree formulas for the Green function and hitting probabilities of Markov chains on a finite state space. These tree formulas are closely related to loop-erased random walks by Wilson's algorithm for random spanning trees, and to mixing times by the Markov chain tree theorem. Let $m_{ij}$ be the mean first passage time from $i$ to $j$ for an irreducible chain with finite state space $S$ and transition matrix $(p_{ij}; i, j \in S)$. It is well-known that $m_{jj} = 1/π_j = Σ^{(1)}/Σ_j$, where $π$ is the stationary dist…
We consider open quantum walks on a graph, and consider the random variables defined as the passage time and number of visits to a given point of the graph. We study in particular the probability that the passage time is finite, the expectation of that passage time, and the expectation of the number of visits, and discuss the notion of recurrence for open quantum walks. We also study exit times and exit probabilities from a finite domain, and use them to solve Dirichlet problems and to determine harmonic measures. We consider in particular the case of irreducible open quantum walks. The result…
On two differing geometric descriptions of the passage from microscopy to macroscopy in Markov diffusion theory
本文针对马尔可夫扩散理论中显微学到宏观学的过渡，构造协调两种几何描述的核心对象，实现了马尔可夫分析中微观-介观-宏观层级的部分普适化。
In this review we discuss the persistence and the related first-passage properties in extended many-body nonequilibrium systems. Starting with simple systems with one or few degrees of freedom, such as random walk and random acceleration problems, we progressively discuss the persistence properties in systems with many degrees of freedom. These systems include spins models undergoing phase ordering dynamics, diffusion equation, fluctuating interfaces etc. Persistence properties are nontrivial in these systems as the effective underlying stochastic process is non-Markovian. Several exact and ap…
Classical first passage problems for $p$-adic stochastic processes
本文研究 p-adic Markov 随机过程首次到达给定区域时间的分布密度问题，通过三种等价方法建立并求解方程，分析其性质并与首次返回时间比较，同时解决命中次数问题并讨论相关推广。
Concentration of Empirical First-Passage Times
针对欠采样数据中首次通过统计量难以可靠推断的问题，本章研究可逆 Markov 过程经验首次通过时间的有限样本集中性，给出样本均值偏差界、非渐近置信区间及极值波动双侧界。
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