美国外国出生人口和国际移民的高分辨率估计
High-resolution estimates of the foreign-born population and international migration for the United States
摘要：
对移徙存量和流动的详细估计为了解人口动态以及影响移徙的经济和政治变化的影响提供了证据。使用2000年十年一度的人口普查和2001-2016年美国社区调查（ACS）的数据，这项研究得出了2000-2018年期间居住在美国的外国出生人口的高度分类估计，以及每年外国出生的ACS人口入境作为移民量的衡量标准。这些估计数来自证据合成，将汇总调查数据与原始调查估计数中潜在偏差的辅助数据和影响外国出生人口的其他趋势相结合。对于单个人口阶层（按当前年龄、入境年份、原籍国和日历年定义），使用调查数据进行的直接估计可能具有很大的抽样不确定性。通过施加逻辑和概率限制，将调查年份的数据汇总，以得出更精确的估计数。对人口统计信息的应答者误报和ACS中外国出生人口的少计进行了纠正。本文描述了用于建模人口变化的统计方法，通过样本内和样本外预测性能证明了该方法的有效性，提供了人口估计值，并强调了潜在的应用。
英文摘要：
Detailed estimates of migration stocks and flows provides evidence for understanding population dynamics, and the impact of economic and political changes that influence migration. Using data from the 2000 decennial census and 2001-2016 American Community Survey (ACS), this study derives highly-disaggregated estimates of the foreign-born population residing in the United States for the period 2000-2018, and annual foreign-born entries to the ACS population as a measure of immigration volume. These estimates are derived from an evidence synthesis combining pooled survey data with auxiliary data on potential biases in raw survey estimates and other trends affecting the foreign-born population. For an individual population stratum (defined by current age, entry year, country of origin, and calendar year) direct estimates using survey data can have substantial sampling uncertainty. By imposing logical and probabilistic constraints, data are pooled across survey years to produce more precise estimates. Corrections are implemented for respondent misreporting of demographic information, and undercount of the foreign-born population in the ACS. This paper describes the statistical approach used to model population change, demonstrates the validity of the approach via in- and out-of-sample predictive performance, provides the population estimates, and highlights potential applications.
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