利用行政数据改进对英国地方移民的估计
Using administrative data to improve the estimation of immigration to local areas in England
摘要：
国际移徙现在是整个欧洲人口变化的一个重要驱动力，但由于衡量和数据收集系统不完善，估计其对国家以下地区的真正影响的现有方法仍然不一致。由于英国没有人口登记册，有关移民和迁出移民的官方统计数据来自调查和人口普查资料的结合。本文展示了行政数据系统，如那些捕获最近的移民与当地医生的登记，国民保险号码登记的工人从国外和外国学生的高等教育的登记，可以提供数据，以更好地了解国际移民的模式和趋势。该文件提出了一个模型，估计在地方一级的移民，整合现有的国家估计从国家统计局从这些行政来源的数据。该模型试图通过在估计过程中使用比例分布而不是绝对移民计数来规避数据集之间的概念差异。该模式方法及其产生的结果提供了移民的替代估计数，供国家统计局在制定自己的国家以下各级移民统计改进方案时考虑。
英文摘要：
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and data capture. In the absence of a population register for England, official statistics on immigration and emigration are derived from a combination of survey and census sources. This paper demonstrates how administrative data systems such as those which capture registrations of recent migrants with a local doctor, National Insurance Number registrations by workers from abroad and the registration of foreign students for higher education, can provide data to better understand patterns and trends in international migration. The paper proposes a model for the estimation of immigration at a local level, integrating existing national estimates from the Office for National Statistics with data from these administrative sources. The model attempts to circumvent conceptual differences between datasets through the use of proportional distributions rather than absolute migrant counts in the estimation process. The model methodology and the results it produces provide alternative estimates of immigration for consideration by the Office for National Statistics as it develops its own programme of improvement to sub-national migration statistics.
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