We consider a sequence of systems of Hawkes processes having mean field interactions in a diffusive regime. The stochastic intensity of each process is a solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by N independent Poisson random measures. We show that, as the number of interacting components N tends to infinity, this intensity converges in distribution in Skorohod space to a CIR-type diffusion. Moreover, we prove the convergence in distribution of the Hawkes processes to the limit point process having the limit diffusion as intensity. To prove the convergence results, we use analytical technics based on the convergence of the associated infinitesimal generators and Markovian semigroups.
We consider oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes introduced in Ditlevsen and Loecherbach (2017) to model multi-class systems of interacting neurons together with the diffusion approximations of their intensity processes. This diffusion, which incorporates the memory terms defining the dynamics of the Hawkes process, is hypo-elliptic. It is given by a high dimensional chain of differential equations driven by $2-$dimensional Brownian motion. We study the large-population-, i.e., small noise-limit of its invariant measure for which we establish a large deviation result in the spir…
We consider a population of Hawkes processes modeling the activity of $N$ interacting neurons. The neurons are regularly positioned on the segment $[0,1]$, and the connectivity between neurons is given by a random possibly diluted and inhomogeneous graph where the probability of presence of each edge depends on the spatial position of its vertices through a spatial kernel. The main result of the paper concerns the longtime stability of the synaptic current of the population, as $N\to\infty$, in the subcritical regime in case the synaptic memory kernel is exponential, up to time horizons that a…
We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of networks of interacting non-linear Hawkes processes modeling a homogeneous population of neurons in the large population limit. In particular, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the mean spike-activity thereby characterizing the asymptotic fluctuations in terms of a stochastic Volterra integral equation. Our approach differs from previous approaches in making use of the associated resolvent in order to represent the fluctutations as Skorokhod continuous mappings of weakly converging martingales. Since the Lipschitz properties of the resol…
The propagation of chaos and associated law of large numbers for mean-field interacting age-dependent Hawkes processes (when the number of processes n goes to +$\infty$) being granted by the study performed in (Chevallier, 2015), the aim of the present paper is to prove the resulting functional central limit theorem. It involves the study of a measure-valued process describing the fluctuations (at scale n --1/2) of the empirical measure of the ages around its limit value. This fluctuation process is proved to converge towards a limit process characterized by a limit system of stochastic differ…
We consider a nonlinear multivariate Hawkes process having a variable length memory which allows to describe the activity of a neuronal network by its membrane potential. We propose a graphical construction of the process and we construct, by means of a perfect simulation algorithm, a stationary version of the process. By making the hypothesis that the spiking rate $β_i$ of the neuron $i \in I $ is bounded, we construct an algorithm based on a priori realizations of the Poisson process $(M^i, i \in I)$. We show that there exists a critical value $δ_c$ such that if $\underlineδ > δ_c$ (where $\…
We propose a mean-field model of interacting point processes where each process has a memory of the time elapsed since its last event (age) and its recent past (leaky memory), generalizing Age-dependent Hawkes processes. The model is motivated by interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes with Markovian self-interaction and networks of spiking neurons with adaptation and short-term synaptic plasticity. By proving propagation of chaos and using a path integral representation for the law of the limit process, we show that, in the mean-field limit, the empirical measure of the system follows a multid…
In the present work, we introduce a general class of mean-field interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modelling the reciprocal interactions between two neuronal populations, one excitatory and one inhibitory. The model incorporates two features: inhibition, which acts as a multiplicative factor onto the intensity of the excitatory population and additive retroaction from the excitatory neurons onto the inhibitory ones. We give first a detailed analysis of the well-posedness of this interacting system as well as its dynamics in large population. The second aim of the paper is to give a rigorou…
We consider spatially extended systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling large systems of neurons placed in Rd and study the associated mean field limits. As the total number of neurons tends to infinity, we prove that the evolution of a typical neuron, attached to a given spatial position, can be described by a nonlinear limit differential equation driven by a Poisson random measure. The limit process is described by a neural field equation. As a consequence, we provide a rigorous derivation of the neural field equation based on a thorough mean field analysis.
We consider a population of $N$ interacting neurons, represented by a multivariate Hawkes process: the firing rate of each neuron depends on the history of the connected neurons. Contrary to the mean-field framework where the interaction occurs on the complete graph, the connectivity between particles is given by a random possibly diluted and inhomogeneous graph where the probability of presence of each edge depends on the spatial position of its vertices. We address the well-posedness of this system and Law of Large Numbers results as $N\to\infty$. A crucial issue will be to understand how sp…
We generalize multivariate Hawkes processes mainly by including a dependence with respect to the age of the process, i.e. the delay since the last point. Within this class, we investigate the limit behaviour, when n goes to infinity, of a system of n mean-field interacting age-dependent Hawkes processes. We prove that such a system can be approximated by independent and identically distributed age dependent point processes interacting with their own mean intensity. This result generalizes the study performed by Delattre, Fournier and Hoffmann (2015). In continuity with the work of Chevallier e…
We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K<N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate of action of each individual depends on some unknown parameter $μ> 0$ and on the sum of some function $ϕ$ of the ages of the actions of the individuals which influence him. The function $ϕ$ is unknown but we assume it rapidly decays. The aim of this paper is to estimate the parameter $p$ asymptotically as $N\to \infty$, $K\to \infty$, and $t\to \infty$. Let $m_…
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and are endowed with a state process that interacts with past-dependent events. The key example we entertain is an extension of a Hawkes process, a state-dependent Hawkes process interacting with its state process. We show the existence and uniqueness of hybrid marked point processes …
We consider multi-class systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling several large families of neurons and study their mean field limits. As the total number of neurons goes to infinity we prove that the evolution within each class can be described by a nonlinear limit differential equation driven by a Poisson random measure, and state associated central limit theorems. We study situations in which the limit system exhibits oscillatory behavior, and relate the results to certain piecewise deterministic Markov processes and their diffusion approximations.
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific characteristics of the novel coronavirus, to capture the impact of undetected, asymptomatic and super-diffusive individuals, and especially to take into account time-varying counter-measures and detection efforts. Yet, it is simple enough to allow scalable and efficient computation of the temporal evolution of the epidemic, and exploration of what-if scenarios. Compar…
We consider the stochastic system of interacting neurons introduced in De Masi et al. (2015) and in Fournier and Löcherbach (2016) and then further studied in Erny, Löcherbach and Loukianova (2021) in a diffusive scaling. The system consists of N neurons, each spiking randomly with rate depending on its membrane potential. At its spiking time, the potential of the spiking neuron is reset to 0 and all other neurons receive an additional amount of potential which is a centred random variable of order $ 1 / \sqrt{N}.$ In between successive spikes, each neuron's potential follows a deterministic f…
The objective of this article is to analyse the statistical behaviour of a large number of weakly interacting diffusion processes evolving under the influence of a periodic interaction potential. We focus our attention on the combined mean field and diffusive(homogenisation)limits. In particular, we show that these two limits do not commute if the mean field system constrained to the torus undergoes a phase transition, that is to say if it admits more than one steady state. A typical example of such a system on the torus is given by the noisy Kuramoto model of mean field plane rotators. As a b…
This paper focus on investigating the explicit rate of convergence for the propagation of chaos, in a pathwise sense a family of interacting stochastic particle related to some Brownian driven McKean-Vlasov dynamics. Precisely the McKean form of nonlinearity is concentrated on a path dependent drift component and satisfies a particular sub-gaussian moment control. Such control enables to derive a uniform estimate of the cost in terms of exponential martingale between the particle and its McKean/mean-field limit system which in turn provide an optimal rate of propagation of chaos in terms of th…
Examples of interacting particle systems on $\mathbb{Z}$ as Pfaffian point processes: coalescing branching random walks and annihilating random walks with immigration
We provide a complete description of the equilibrium fluctuations for diffusive symmetric exclusion processes with long jumps in contact with infinitely extended reservoirs and prove that they behave as generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with various boundary conditions, depending mainly on the strength of the reservoirs. On the way, we also give a general statement about uniqueness of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process originated by the microscopic dynamics of the underlying interacting particle systems and adapt it to our study.
We show a diffusive upper bound on the transition probability of a tagged particle in the symmetric simple exclusion process. The proof relies on optimal spectral gap estimates for the dynamics in finite volume, which are of independent interest. We also show off-diagonal estimates of Carne-Varopoulos type.
The cooperative dynamics of a 1-D collection of Markov jump, interacting stochastic processes is studied via a mean-field approach. In the time-asymptotic regime, the resulting nonlinear master equation is analytically solved. The nonlinearity compensates jumps induced diffusive behavior giving rise to a soliton-like stationary probability density. The soliton velocity and its sharpness both intimately depend on the interaction strength. Below a critical threshold of the strength of interactions, the cooperative behavior cannot be sustained leading to the destruction of the soliton-like soluti…
We consider extended slow-fast systems of N interacting diffusions. The typical behavior of the empirical density is described by a nonlinear McKean-Vlasov equation depending on , the scaling parameter separating the time scale of the slow variable from the time scale of the fast variable. Its atypical behavior is encapsulated in a large N Large Deviation Principle (LDP) with a rate functional. We study the $Γ$-convergence of as $\rightarrow$ 0 and show it converges to the rate functional appearing in the Macroscopic Fluctuations Theory (MFT) for diffusive systems.
