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arXiv 1904.06236cs.CV

Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data

University of Oulu(奥卢大学);Oulu University Hospital(奥卢大学医院);Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam(伊拉斯谟医学中心,鹿特丹大学医学中心);University Medical Center Rotterdam(鹿特丹大学医学中心);Tampere University of Technology(坦佩雷理工大学)

Aleksei Tiulpin, Stefan Klein, Sita M. A. Bierma-Zeinstra, Jérôme Thevenot, Esa Rahtu, Joyce van Meurs, Edwin H. G. Oei, Simo Saarakkala

英文摘要:

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease without a cure, and current treatment options are limited to symptomatic relief. Prediction of OA progression is a very challenging and timely issue, and it could, if resolved, accelerate the disease modifying drug development and ultimately help to prevent millions of total joint replacement surgeries performed annually. Here, we present a multi-modal machine learning-based OA progression prediction model that utilizes raw radiographic data, clinical examination results and previous medical history of the patient. We validated this approach on an independent test set of 3,918 knee images from 2,129 subjects. Our method yielded area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.79 (0.78-0.81) and Average Precision (AP) of 0.68 (0.66-0.70). In contrast, a reference approach, based on logistic regression, yielded AUC of 0.75 (0.74-0.77) and AP of 0.62 (0.60-0.64). The proposed method could significantly improve the subject selection process for OA drug-development trials and help the development of personalized therapeutic plans.

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