对流层顶高度和温度的经向结构及未来变化
Meridional Structure and Future Changes of Tropopause Height and Temperature
摘要：
我们使用一个简单的，半解析，列模式，以更好地了解对流层顶高度的纬向结构和未来的变化与全球变暖的高度和温度。该模式可以分离对流层直减率（TLR）、光学深度、外射长波辐射（OLR）和平流层冷却对对流层顶高度的影响。当局部应用在每个纬度带的模型预测的对流层顶高度的整体纬向结构，热带对流层顶大幅高于高纬度和急剧过渡的边缘的热带外。大的光学深度的热带，主要是由于大的水汽路径（WVP），是占主导地位的对流层效应产生较高的热带对流层顶，而较大的热带直减率的作用，以降低对流层顶的高度。平流层环流引起的动力冷却进一步抬升了热带地区的热对流层顶，使其比中高纬度地区的热对流层顶要低得多。该模型量化的对流层顶高度增加的原因与全球变暖，是强大的气候集成从第五耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）。CMIP 5模式中对流层顶高度增加率的大范围分布被简单模式捕获，该模式将主要贡献归因于WVP和TLR的变化，而CO2浓度和OLR的变化影响要小得多。CMIP5模式还显示，低纬度地区对流层顶温度有小幅但强劲的上升，而高纬度地区的上升幅度要小得多。我们认为，热带的增加可能在一定程度上是由非灰色效应的辐射传输与较高水平的水蒸气在热带地区，与附近恒定的对流层顶温度预测，否则。
英文摘要：
We use a simple, semi-analytic, column model to better understand the meridional structure of the tropopause height and the future changes in its height and temperature associated with global warming. The model allows us to separate the effects of tropospheric lapse rate (TLR), optical depth, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and stratospheric cooling on the tropopause height. When applied locally at each latitudinal band the model predicts the overall meridional structure of the tropopause height, with a tropical tropopause substantially higher than that in higher latitudes and a sharp transition at the edge of the extratropics. The large optical depth of the tropics, due mainly to the large water vapour path (WVP), is the dominant tropospheric effect producing the higher tropical tropopause, whereas the larger tropical lapse rate acts to lower the tropopause height. The dynamical cooling induced by the stratospheric circulation further lifts the thermal tropopause in the tropics resulting in it being significantly cooler and higher than in mid- and high latitudes. The model quantifies the causes of the tropopause height increase with global warming that is robustly found in climate integrations from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The large spread in the increase rate of tropopause height in the CMIP5 models is captured by the simple model, which attributes the dominant contributions to changes in WVP and TLR, with changes in CO2 concentration and OLR having much smaller effects. The CMIP5 models also show a small but robust increase in the tropopause temperature in low latitudes, with a much smaller increase in higher latitudes. We suggest that the tropical increase may in part be caused by non-grey effects in the radiative transfer associated with the higher levels of water vapour in the tropics, with near constant tropopause temperatures predicted otherwise.
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