文物古迹的保护或恶化？估计为保护支付费用的意愿
Conservation or deterioration in heritage sites? Estimating willingness to pay for preservation
摘要：
联合国世界遗产的很大一部分位于发展中国家。这些景点吸引了越来越多的游客和收入到这些国家。不幸的是，由于气候和环境的影响，许多WHS状况不佳;战争和旅游业的压力，迫切需要恢复和保护（Tuan & Navrud，2007）。在这项研究中，我们调查了设拉子市的居民（游客和非游客）是否愿意通过保护遗产和发展旅游业作为当地资源的模式投资于遗产地的管理。这项研究着眼于伊朗设拉子市内不同类别的遗产遗址。衡量工具是一项规定的偏好全民投票任务，在全州范围内对489名受访者进行抽样管理，支付机制被定义为在一段时间内征收固定金额的特定目的的增量税。创新性地使用了一种基于参数约束的潜在类二元Logit模型来处理任何策略投票，如赞成者和反对者，以及揭示样本成员之间的潜在异质性。结果表明，几乎14%的抽样人口不愿意征收任何金额（Nay-sayers），以保护任何遗产。不认识数据中存在的反对者，或者认识到他们，但将他们从估计中排除，将导致有偏见的支付意愿（WTP）结果，从而导致当局有偏见的政策主张。此外，研究发现，遗产地的类型是一个驱动器的WTP。这项研究的结果提供了深入了解遗产地游客和非游客的支付意愿，以避免未来的侵蚀和破坏的影响，并有助于遗产管理和维护政策。
英文摘要：
A significant part of the United Nations World Heritage Sites (WHSs) is located in developing countries. These sites attract an increasing number of tourist and income to these countries. Unfortunately, many of these WHSs are in a poor condition due to climatic and environmental impacts; war and tourism pressure, requiring the urgent need for restoration and preservation (Tuan & Navrud, 2007). In this study, we characterise residents from Shiraz city (visitors and non-visitors) willingness to invest in the management of the heritage sites through models for the preservation of heritage and development of tourism as a local resource. The research looks at different categories of heritage sites within Shiraz city, Iran. The measurement instrument is a stated preference referendum task administered state-wide to a sample of 489 respondents, with the payment mechanism defined as a purpose-specific incremental levy of a fixed amount over a set period of years. A Latent Class Binary Logit model, using parametric constraints is used innovatively to deal with any strategic voting such as Yea-sayers and Nay-sayers, as well as revealing the latent heterogeneity among sample members. Results indicate that almost 14% of the sampled population is unwilling to be levied any amount (Nay-sayers) to preserve any heritage sites. Not recognizing the presence of nay-sayers in the data or recognizing them but eliminating them from the estimation will result in biased Willingness to Pay (WTP) results and, consequently, biased policy propositions by authorities. Moreover, it is found that the type of heritage site is a driver of WTP. The results from this study provide insights into the WTP of heritage site visitors and non-visitors with respect to avoiding the impacts of future erosion and destruction and contributing to heritage management and maintenance policies.
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