Kernel density estimation is a well known method involving a smoothing parameter (the bandwidth) that needs to be tuned by the user. Although this method has been widely used the bandwidth selection remains a challenging issue in terms of balancing algorithmic performance and statistical relevance. The purpose of this paper is to compare a recently developped bandwidth selection method for kernel density estimation to those which are commonly used by now (at least those which are implemented in the R-package). This new method is called Penalized Comparison to Overfitting (PCO). It has been proposed by some of the authors of this paper in a previous work devoted to its statistical relevance from a purely theoretical perspective. It is compared here to other usual bandwidth selection methods for univariate and also multivariate kernel density estimation on the basis of intensive simulation studies. In particular, cross-validation and plug-in criteria are numerically investigated and compared to PCO. The take home message is that PCO can outperform the classical methods without algorithmic additionnal cost.
Multivariate normal mixtures provide a flexible model for high-dimensional data. They are widely used in statistical genetics, statistical finance, and other disciplines. Due to the unboundedness of the likelihood function, classical likelihood-based methods, which may have nice practical properties, are inconsistent. In this paper, we recommend a penalized likelihood method for estimating the mixing distribution. We show that the maximum penalized likelihood estimator is strongly consistent when the number of components has a known upper bound. We also explore a convenient EM-algorithm for co…
A generalized linear point process is specified in terms of an intensity that depends upon a linear predictor process through a fixed non-linear function. We present a framework where the linear predictor is parametrized by a Banach space and give results on Gateaux differentiability of the log-likelihood. Of particular interest is when the intensity is expressed in terms of a linear filter parametrized by a Sobolev space. Using that the Sobolev spaces are reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces we derive results on the representation of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator in a special case a…
Non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation encompasses a group of classic methods to estimate distribution-associated functions from potentially censored and truncated data, with extensive applications in survival analysis. These methods, including the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Turnbull's method, often result in overfitting, especially when the sample size is small. We propose an improvement to these methods by applying kernel smoothing to their raw estimates, based on a BIC-type loss function that balances the trade-off between optimizing model fit and controlling model complexity. In the …
In many psychometric applications, the relationship between the mean of an outcome and a quantitative covariate is too complex to be described by simple parametric functions; instead, flexible nonlinear relationships can be incorporated using penalized splines. Penalized splines can be conveniently represented as a linear mixed effects model (LMM), where the coefficients of the spline basis functions are random effects. The LMM representation of penalized splines makes the extension to multivariate outcomes relatively straightforward. In the LMM, no effect of the quantitative covariate on the …
We propose a new class of nonconvex penalty functions, based on data depth functions, for multitask sparse penalized regression. These penalties quantify the relative position of rows of the coefficient matrix from a fixed distribution centered at the origin. We derive the theoretical properties of an approximate one-step sparse estimator of the coefficient matrix using local linear approximation of the penalty function, and provide algorithm for its computation. For orthogonal design and independent responses, the resulting thresholding rule enjoys near-minimax optimal risk performance, simil…
We introduce an original method of multidimensional ridge penalization in functional local linear regressions. The nonparametric regression of functional data is extended from its multivariate counterpart, and is known to be sensitive to the choice of $J$, where $J$ is the dimension of the projection subspace of the data. Under multivariate setting, a roughness penalty is helpful for variance reduction. However, among the limited works covering roughness penalty under the functional setting, most only use a single scalar for tuning. Our new approach proposes a class of data-adaptive ridge pena…
We consider linear models where $d$ potential causes $X_1,...,X_d$ are correlated with one target quantity $Y$ and propose a method to infer whether the association is causal or whether it is an artifact caused by overfitting or hidden common causes. We employ the idea that in the former case the vector of regression coefficients has 'generic' orientation relative to the covariance matrix $Σ_{XX}$ of $X$. Using an ICA based model for confounding, we show that both confounding and overfitting yield regression vectors that concentrate mainly in the space of low eigenvalues of $Σ_{XX}$.
We propose a new prediction method for multivariate linear regression problems where the number of features is less than the sample size but the number of outcomes is extremely large. Many popular procedures, such as penalized regression procedures, require parameter tuning that is computationally untenable in such large-scale problems. We take a different approach, motivated by ideas from simultaneous estimation problems, that performs linear shrinkage on ordinary least squares parameter estimates. Our approach is extremely computationally efficient and tuning-free. We show that it can asympt…
This paper proposes a maximum-likelihood approach to jointly estimate marginal conditional quantiles of multivariate response variables in a linear regression framework. We consider a slight reparameterization of the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace distribution proposed by Kotz et al (2001) and exploit its location-scale mixture representation to implement a new EM algorithm for estimating model parameters. The idea is to extend the link between the Asymmetric Laplace distribution and the well-known univariate quantile regression model to a multivariate context, i.e. when a multivariate depend…
We develop a new method to fit the multivariate response linear regression model that exploits a parametric link between the regression coefficient matrix and the error covariance matrix. Specifically, we assume that the correlations between entries in the multivariate error random vector are proportional to the cosines of the angles between their corresponding regression coefficient matrix columns, so as the angle between two regression coefficient matrix columns decreases, the correlation between the corresponding errors increases. We highlight two models under which this parameterization ar…
In this paper, we introduce two robust, nonparametric methods for multiple change-point detection in the variability of a multivariate sequence of observations. We demonstrate that changes in ranks generated from data depth functions can be used to detect changes in the variability of a sequence of multivariate observations. In order to detect more than one change, the first algorithm uses methods similar to that of wild-binary segmentation. The second algorithm estimates change-points by maximizing a penalized version of the classical Kruskal Wallis ANOVA test statistic. We show that this obj…
In this paper, we study convex optimization methods for computing the trace norm regularized least squares estimate in multivariate linear regression. The so-called factor estimation and selection (FES) method, recently proposed by Yuan et al. [22], conducts parameter estimation and factor selection simultaneously and have been shown to enjoy nice properties in both large and finite samples. To compute the estimates, however, can be very challenging in practice because of the high dimensionality and the trace norm constraint. In this paper, we explore a variant of Nesterov's smooth method [20]…
In this article, we propose a penalized high dimensional semiparametric model average quantile prediction approach that is robust for forecasting the conditional quantile of the response. We consider a two-step estimation procedure. In the first step, we use a local linear regression approach to estimate the individual marginal quantile functions, and approximate the conditional quantile of the response by an affine combination of one-dimensional marginal quantile regression functions. In the second step, based on the nonparametric kernel estimates of the marginal quantile regression functions…
Structural change detection problems are often encountered in analytics and econometrics, where the performance of a model can be significantly affected by unforeseen changes in the underlying relationships. Although these problems have a comparatively long history in statistics, the number of studies done in the context of multivariate data under nonparametric settings is still small. In this paper, we propose a consistent method for detecting multiple structural changes in a system of related regressions over a large dimensional variable space. In most applications, practitioners also do not…
Supervised linear feature extraction can be achieved by fitting a reduced rank multivariate model. This paper studies rank penalized and rank constrained vector generalized linear models. From the perspective of thresholding rules, we build a framework for fitting singular value penalized models and use it for feature extraction. Through solving the rank constraint form of the problem, we propose progressive feature space reduction for fast computation in high dimensions with little performance loss. A novel projective cross-validation is proposed for parameter tuning in such nonconvex setups.…
Multivariate categorical data are routinely collected in many application areas. As the number of cells in the table grows exponentially with the number of variables, many or even most cells will contain zero observations. This severe sparsity motivates appropriate statistical methodologies that effectively reduce the number of free parameters, with penalized log-linear models and latent structure analysis being popular options. This article proposes a fundamentally new class of methods, which we refer to as Mixture of Log Linear models (mills). Combining latent class analysis and log-linear m…
We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the dependence between extreme values may change according to covariates. We devise a maximum penalized log-likelihood estimator, discuss details of the estimation procedure, and derive its consistency and asymptotic normality. The simulation study suggests that the proposed methods perform well in a wealth of simulation scenarios by accurately recovering the true c…
For the nonparametric estimation of multivariate finite mixture models with the conditional independence assumption, we propose a new formulation of the objective function in terms of penalized smoothed Kullback-Leibler distance. The nonlinearly smoothed majorization-minimization (NSMM) algorithm is derived from this perspective. An elegant representation of the NSMM algorithm is obtained using a novel projection-multiplication operator, a more precise monotonicity property of the algorithm is discovered, and the existence of a solution to the main optimization problem is proved for the first …
We propose a new statistical procedure able in some way to overcome the curse of dimensionality without structural assumptions on the function to estimate. It relies on a least-squares type penalized criterion and a new collection of models built from hyperbolic biorthogonal wavelet bases. We study its properties in a unifying intensity estimation framework, where an oracle-type inequality and adaptation to mixed smoothness are shown to hold. Besides, we describe an algorithm for implementing the estimator with a quite reasonable complexity.
We consider the model selection problem for a large class of time series models, including, multivariate count processes, causal processes with exogenous covariates. A procedure based on a general penalized contrast is proposed. Some asymptotic results for weak and strong consistency are established. The non consistency issue is addressed, and a class of penalty term, that does not ensure consistency is provided. Examples of continuous valued and multivariate count autoregressive time series are considered.
We study the Cox models with semiparametric relative risk, which can be partially linear with one nonparametric component, or multiple additive or nonadditive nonparametric components. A penalized partial likelihood procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the parameters and select variables for both the parametric and the nonparametric parts. Two penalties are applied sequentially. The first penalty, governing the smoothness of the multivariate nonlinear covariate effect function, provides a smoothing spline ANOVA framework that is exploited to derive an empirical model selection tool…
This article investigates unsupervised classification techniques for categorical multivariate data. The study employs multivariate multinomial mixture modeling, which is a type of model particularly applicable to multilocus genotypic data. A model selection procedure is used to simultaneously select the number of components and the relevant variables. A non-asymptotic oracle inequality is obtained, leading to the proposal of a new penalized maximum likelihood criterion. The selected model proves to be asymptotically consistent under weak assumptions on the true probability underlying the obser…
Estimation of a conditional mean (linking a set of features to an outcome of interest) is a fundamental statistical task. While there is an appeal to flexible nonparametric procedures, effective estimation in many classical nonparametric function spaces (e.g., multivariate Sobolev spaces) can be prohibitively difficult -- both statistically and computationally -- especially when the number of features is large. In this paper, we present (penalized) sieve estimators for regression in nonparametric tensor product spaces: These spaces are more amenable to multivariate regression, and allow us to,…
Multivariate Gaussian is often used as a first approximation to the distribution of high-dimensional data. Determining the parameters of this distribution under various constraints is a widely studied problem in statistics, and is often considered as a prototype for testing new algorithms or theoretical frameworks. In this paper, we develop a nonasymptotic approach to the problem of estimating the parameters of a multivariate Gaussian distribution when data are corrupted by outliers. We propose an estimator---efficiently computable by solving a convex program---that robustly estimates the popu…
This paper studies the estimation of the coefficient matrix $\Ttheta$ in multivariate regression with hidden variables, $Y = (\Ttheta)^TX + (B^*)^TZ + E$, where $Y$ is a $m$-dimensional response vector, $X$ is a $p$-dimensional vector of observable features, $Z$ represents a $K$-dimensional vector of unobserved hidden variables, possibly correlated with $X$, and $E$ is an independent error. The number of hidden variables $K$ is unknown and both $m$ and $p$ are allowed but not required to grow with the sample size $n$. Since only $Y$ and $X$ are observable, we provide necessary conditions for t…
Given i.i.d. observations of a random vector $X \in \mathbb{R}^p$, we study the problem of estimating both its covariance matrix $Σ^*$, and its inverse covariance or concentration matrix {$Θ^* = (Σ^*)^{-1}$.} We estimate $Θ^*$ by minimizing an $\ell_1$-penalized log-determinant Bregman divergence; in the multivariate Gaussian case, this approach corresponds to $\ell_1$-penalized maximum likelihood, and the structure of $Θ^*$ is specified by the graph of an associated Gaussian Markov random field. We analyze the performance of this estimator under high-dimensional scaling, in which the number o…
We propose dimension reduction methods for sparse, high-dimensional multivariate response regression models. Both the number of responses and that of the predictors may exceed the sample size. Sometimes viewed as complementary, predictor selection and rank reduction are the most popular strategies for obtaining lower-dimensional approximations of the parameter matrix in such models. We show in this article that important gains in prediction accuracy can be obtained by considering them jointly. We motivate a new class of sparse multivariate regression models, in which the coefficient matrix has…
Under the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), we consider the penalized least-squares of the partially functional linear models (PFLM), whose predictor contains both functional and traditional multivariate parts, and the multivariate part allows a divergent number of parameters. From the non-asymptotic point of view, we focus on the rate-optimal upper and lower bounds of the prediction error. An exact upper bound for the excess prediction risk is shown in a non-asymptotic form under a more general assumption known as the effective dimension to the model, by which we also show the predict…
