We analyze five big data sets from a variety of online social networking (OSN) systems and find that the growth dynamics of meme popularity exhibit characteristically different behaviors. For example, there is linear growth associated with online recommendation and sharing platforms, a plateaued (or an ``S''-shape) type of growth behavior in a web service devoted to helping users to collect bookmarks, and an exponential increase on the largest and most popular microblogging website in China. Does a universal mechanism with a common set of dynamical rules exist, which can explain these empirically observed, distinct growth behaviors? We provide an affirmative answer in this paper. In particular, inspired by biomimicry to take advantage of cell population growth dynamics in microbial ecology, we construct a base growth model for meme popularity in OSNs. We then take into account human factors by incorporating a general model of human interest dynamics into the base model. The final hybrid model contains a small number of free parameters that can be estimated purely from data. We demonstrate that our model is universal in the sense that, with a few parameters estimated from data, it can successfully predict the distinct meme growth dynamics. Our study represents a successful effort to exploit principles in biology to understand online social behaviors by incorporating the traditional microbial growth model into meme popularity. Our model can be used to gain insights into critical issues such as classification, robustness, optimization, and control of OSN systems.
Aquincum Institute of Technology（阿昆库姆理工学院）；Colorado College（科罗拉多学院）；University of Kansas（堪萨斯大学）；Haverford College（哈弗福德学院）；Tufts University（塔夫茨大学）；Dmlab Ltd.（Dmlab有限公司）；MTA-BME Stochastics Research Group（MTA-BME随机研究组）；Budapest University of Technology and Economics（布达佩斯技术与经济大学）
Internet memes have become an increasingly pervasive form of contemporary social communication that attracted a lot of research interest recently. In this paper, we analyze the data of 129,326 memes collected from Reddit in the middle of March, 2020, when the most serious coronavirus restrictions were being introduced around the world. This article not only provides a looking glass into the thoughts of Internet users during the COVID-19 pandemic but we also perform a content-based predictive analysis of what makes a meme go viral. Using machine learning methods, we also study what incremental …
A sleeping beauty in diffusion indicates that the information, can be ideas or innovations, will experience a hibernation before a sudden spike of popularity and it is widely found in citation history of scientific publications. However, in this study, we demonstrate that the sleeping beauty is an interesting and unexceptional phenomenon in information diffusion and even more inspiring, there exist two consecutive sleeping beauties in the entire lifetime of propagation, suggesting that the information, including scientific topics, search queries or Wikipedia entries, which we call memes, will …
The spreading of news, memes and other pieces of information occurring via online social platforms has a strong and growing impact on our modern societies, with enormous consequences, that may be beneficial but also catastrophic. In this work we consider a recently introduced model for information diffusion in social media taking explicitly into account the competition of a large number of items of diverse quality. We map the meme dynamics onto a one-dimensional diffusion process that we solve analytically, deriving the lifetime and popularity distributions of individual memes. We also present…
Online social media have greatly affected the way in which we communicate with each other. However, little is known about what are the fundamental mechanisms driving dynamical information flow in online social systems. Here, we introduce a generative model for online sharing behavior that is analytically tractable and which can reproduce several characteristics of empirical micro-blogging data on hashtag usage, such as (time-dependent) heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity. The presented framework constitutes a null model for social spreading phenomena which, in contrast to purely empi…
Popularity describes the dynamics of mass attention, and is a part of a broader class of population dynamics in ecology and social science literature. Studying accurate model of popularity is important for quantifying spreading of novelty, memes, and influences in human society. Although logistic equation and similar class of nonlinear differential equation formulates traditional population dynamics well, part of the deviation in long-term prediction is stated, yet fully understood. Recently, several studies hinted a long-term memory effect on popularity whose response function follows a power…
The increasing popularity of academic social networking sites (ASNSs) requires studies on the usage of ASNSs among scholars and evaluations of the effectiveness of these ASNSs. However, it is unclear whether current ASNSs have fulfilled their design goal, as scholars' actual online interactions on these platforms remain unexplored. To fill the gap, this article presents a study based on data collected from ResearchGate. Adopting a mixed-method design by conducting qualitative content analysis and statistical analysis on 1,128 posts collected from ResearchGate Q&A, we examine how scholars excha…
University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Universitat Politècnica de València（瓦伦西亚理工大学）
The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a fresh challenge in the financial realm. Investigating such "bubbles" - periods of sudden anomalous behavior of markets are critical in better understanding investor behavior and market dynamics. However, high volatility coupled with massive volumes of chaotic social media texts, especially for underexplored assets like cryptocoins pose a challenge to existing methods. Taking…
Reliable social connectivity and transmission of data for popular nodes is vital in multihop Ad-hoc Social Networks (ASNETs). In this networking paradigm, transmission unreliability could be caused by multiple social applications running on a single node. This leads to contentions among nodes and connection paths. In addition, congestions can be the result of multiple senders transmitting data to a single receiver and every sender waiting for a positive acknowledgment to move on. Therefore, traditional Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) performs poorly in ASNETs, due to the fact that the avai…
In this paper, we present an approach for predicting trust links between peers in social media, one that is grounded in the artificial intelligence area of multiagent trust modeling. In particular, we propose a data-driven multi-faceted trust modeling which incorporates many distinct features for a comprehensive analysis. We focus on demonstrating how clustering of similar users enables a critical new functionality: supporting more personalized, and thus more accurate predictions for users. Illustrated in a trust-aware item recommendation task, we evaluate the proposed framework in the context…
The popularity of the online media-driven social network relation is proven in today's digital era. The many challenges that these emergence has created include a huge growing network of social relations, and the large amount of data which is continuously been generated via the different platform of social networking sites, viz. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, etc. These data are Personally Identifiable Information (PII) of the users which are also publicly available for some platform, and others allow with some restricted permission to download it for research purposes. The users' acc…
