We use archival daily spot coverage measurements from Howard et al. (1984) to study the rotational modulation of the Sun as though it were a distant star. A quasi-periodic Gaussian process measures the solar rotation period $P_\mathrm{rot} = 26.3 \pm 0.1$ days, and activity cycle period $P_\mathrm{cyc} = 10.7 \pm 0.3$ years. We attempt to search for evidence of differential rotation in variations of the apparent rotation period throughout the activity cycle and do not detect a clear signal of differential rotation, consistent with the null results of the hare-and-hounds exercise of Aigrain et al. (2015). The full reconstructed solar light curve is available online.
Based on the extended Greenwich-NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes o…
We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruc…
We used the Pixelised Wavelet Filtering (PWF) method to compute narrow-band power maps of SDO/AIA imaging datasets in the 1700 Å, 1600 Å and 304 Å bandpasses that correspond to different heights. The cut-off frequency was defined as contours where the spectral power droped to the median level. It was measured as a function of the spatial location. We inferred the magnetic field inclination according to the MAG wave theory in the low-$β$ limit and compared it with the potential field extrapolation.{We analysed intensity oscillations in a symmetric sunspot AR11131(08 Dec 2010) and an asymmetric …
We present reconstructed sunspot positions based on observations reported in letters between Gottfried Kirch and other contemporary astronomers from AD 1680 to 1709, i.e. in the last decades of the Maunder Minimum. The letters were compiled and edited by Herbst (2006). The letters (and observations) from Kirch are mostly by Gottfried Kirch, but some also by his 2nd wife Maria M. Kirch (married 1692) and their son Christfried Kirch (born 1694). Using excerpts from the letters, some with drawings, we found some 35 sunspot groups (often for several days in a row or with interruptions) by Kirch an…
The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer period of time but generally without resolving individual cycles and their continuity. Here we reconstruct individual cycles for the last millennium using recent 14C data and state-of-the-art models. Starting with the 14C production rate determined from the so far most precise measurements of radiocarbon content in tree rings, solar activity is reconstructed in …
Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently, Krivova et al., 2007 reconstructed, using suitable models, the total solar irradiance from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present, based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the long historical record of the sunspot numbers using a simple but consistent physical model. There are many classes …
We identify several pairs of 'equivalent' observers defined as observers with equal or nearly equal 'observational threshold' areas of sunspots on the solar disk as determined by the 'Active Days Fraction' method [e.g. Willamo et al., 2017]. For such pairs of observers, the ADF-method would be expected to map the actually observed sunspot group numbers for the individual observers to two reconstructed series that are very nearly equal and (it is claimed) represent 'real' solar activity without arbitrary choices and deleterious, error-accumulating 'daisy-chaining'. We show that this goal has no…
Smoothed monthly mean coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters (speed, acceleration, central position angle, angular width, mass and kinetic energy) for Cycle 23 are cross-analyzed, showing a high correlation between most of them. The CME acceleration (a) is found to be highly correlated with the reciprocal of its mass (M), with a correlation coefficient r = 0:899. The force (Ma) to drive a CME is found to be well anti-correlated with the sunspot number (Rz), r = -0.750. The relationships between CME parameters and Rz can be well described by an integral response model with a decay time scale of…
We have reconstructed the sunspot group count, not by comparisons with other reconstructions and correcting those where they were deemed to be deficient, but by a re-assessment of original sources. The resulting series is a pure solar index and does not rely on input from other proxies, e.g. radionuclides, auroral sightings, or geomagnetic records. 'Backboning' the data sets, our chosen method, provides substance and rigidity by using long-time observers as a stiffness character. Solar activity, as defined by the Group Number, appears to reach and sustain for extended intervals of time the sam…
In this article, we present the results of the surveys on sunspots and auroral candidates in Rikkokushi, Japanese Official Histories from the early 7th century to 887 to review the solar and auroral activities. In total, we found one sunspot record and 13 auroral candidates in Rikkokushi. We then examine the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates, compare the auroral candidates with the lunar phase to estimate the reliability of the auroral candidates, and compare the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates with the contemporary total solar irradiance reconstructed from radioiso…
One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e. on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e. days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger and Walton (2005, GRL, 32, 14109) showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar…
We investigate the phase difference of the sunspot cycles in the two hemispheres and compare it with the latitudinal sunspot distribution. If the north-south phase difference exhibits a long-term tendency, it should not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon. We use datasets of historical sunspot records and drawings made by Staudacher, Hamilton, Gimingham, Carrington, Spouml;rer, and Greenwich observers, as well as the sunspot activity during the Maunder minimum reconstructed by Ribes and Nesme-Ribes. We employ cross-recurrence plots to analyse north-south phase differences. We show that duri…
The solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645 -- 1715) has been considered significantly different from the one captured in modern observations, in terms of sunspot group number and sunspot positions, whereas its actual amplitudes and distributions is still under active discussions. In its core period (1650/1660 -- 1700), Martin Fogelius and Henrich Siverus have formed significant long-term series in the existing databases with numerous spotless days, as the 13th and 7th most active observers before the end of the MM. In this study, we have analysed their original archival records, r…
The magnetic field of a sunspot guides magnetohydrodynamic waves toward higher atmospheric layers. In the upper photosphere and lower chromosphere, wave modes with periods longer than the acoustic cut-off period become evanescent. The cut-off period essentially changes due to the atmospheric properties, e.g., increases for larger zenith inclinations of the magnetic field. In this work, we aim at introducing a novel technique of reconstructing the magnetic field inclination on the basis of the dominating wave periods in the sunspot chromosphere and upper photosphere. On 2013 August 21st, we obs…
In this work, we use two decadal sunspot number series reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide data (14C in tree trunks, SN-14C and 10Be in polar ice, SN-10Be) and the Extreme Value Theory to study variability of solar activity during the last 9 millennia. The peaks-over-threshold technique was used to compute, in particular, the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution for different thresholds. Its negative value implies an upper bound of the extreme SN-10Be and SN-14C time series. The return level for 1000 and 10000 years were estimated leading to values lower than the maxim…
The relationship between solar eruption and sunspot rotation has been widely reported, and the underlying mechanism requires to be studied. Here we performed a full 3D MHD simulation of data-constrained approach to study the mechanism of flare eruptions in active region (AR) NOAA 10930, which is characterized by continuous sunspot rotation and homologous eruptions. We reconstructed the potential magnetic field from the magnetogram of Hinode/SOT as the initial condition and drove the MHD system by applying continuous sunspot rotation at the bottom boundary. The key magnetic structure before the…
Recent work on improving and revising estimates of solar activity [Clette et al., 2014] has resulted in renewed interest in what has been called the longest running 'Science Experiment'. We compare four reconstructions of solar activity as reflected in the number of sunspot groups ('active regions') constructed by different authors using very different methods. We concentrate on the period since AD 1900 where the underlying solar and geomagnetic data are plentiful and of sufficient quality and find that all four methods yield essentially the same Sunspot Group Number series. We take that as in…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. With this tutorial, we investigate the variations in the length of the sunspot number cycle and examine whether the variability can be explained in terms of a secular pattern. We identified long-term cycles in archival data from 1610 - 2000 using median trace analyses of the cycle le…
In 1981, the production of the international Sunspot Number moved from the Zürich Observatory to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, marking a very important transition in the history of the Sunspot Number. Those recent decades are particularly important for linking recent modern solar indices and fluxes and the past Sunspot Number series. However, large variations have been recently identified in the scale of the Sunspot Number between 1981 and the present. Here, we reconstruct a new average Sunspot Number series $S_N$ using long-duration stations between 1981 and 2015. We also extend this reco…
Observations of the solar butterfly diagram from sunspot records suggest persistent fluctuation in parity, away from the overall, approximately dipolar structure. We use a simple mean-field dynamo model with a solar-like rotation law, and perturb the $α$-effect. We find that the parity of the magnetic field with respect to the rotational equator can demonstrate what we describe as resonant behaviour, while the magnetic energy behaves in a more or less expected way. We discuss possible applications of the phenomena in the context of various deviations of the solar magnetic field from dipolar sy…
As we are heading towards the next solar cycle, presumably with a relatively small amplitude, it is of significant interest to reconstruct and describe the past grand minima on the basis of actual observations of the time. The Dalton Minimum is often considered one of the grand minima captured in the coverage of telescopic observations. Nevertheless, the reconstructions of the sunspot group number vary significantly, and the existing butterfly diagrams have a large data gap during the period. This is partially because most long-term observations have remained unexplored in historical archives.…
We create a continuous series of daily and monthly hemispheric sunspot numbers (HSNs) from 1874 to 2020, which will be continuously expanded in the future with the HSNs provided by SILSO. Based on the available daily measurements of hemispheric sunspot areas from 1874 to 2016 from Greenwich Royal Observatory and NOAA, we derive the relative fractions of the northern and southern activity. These fractions are applied to the international sunspot number (ISN) to derive the HSNs. This method and obtained data are validated against published HSNs for the period 1945--2020. We provide a continuous …
This paper assesses if the Planet 9 hypothesis, the existence of a ninth planet, is consistent with the planetary hypothesis, the synchronization of sunspot emergence to solar inertial motion (SIM) induced by the planets. We show that SIM would be profoundly affected if Planet 9 exists and that the hypothesized effect of SIM on sunspot emergence would be radically different from the effect of SIM due to the existing eight planets. We compare the spectral and time variation of Sun to barycentre distance, RB, calculated for both the eight and nine planet systems, with variation of sunspot number…
We use high spatial and temporal resolution observations, simultaneously obtained with the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, to investigate the high-frequency oscillations above a sunspot umbra. A novel time--frequency analysis method, namely the synchrosqueezing transform (SST), is employed to represent their power spectra and to reconstruct the high-frequency signals at different solar atmospheric layers. A validation study with synthetic signals demonstrates that SST is capable to resolving weak signals even when their…
Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar influence on Earth requires much longer records. The aim of this work is to provide the most up-to-date physics-based reconstruction of the solar total and spectral irradiance (TSI/SSI) over the last nine millennia. The concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural archives have been converted to decadally averaged sunspot numbers through a chain of p…
We analyze a set of full Stokes profile observations of the flaring active region NOAA 10808 recorded with the Vector-Spectromagnetograph (VSM) of the SOLIS facility. We aim to quantify transient and permanent changes in the magnetic field and velocity field. The results are put in context with MDI magnetograms and reconstructed RHESSI X-ray images. We find signs of restructuring of the photospheric magnetic field during the flare close to the polarity inversion line (PIL) at the flaring site. At two locations in the umbra we encounter strong fields (approx. 3 kG), as inferred from the Stokes …
Catalogs of the Zurich Observatory contain positional information on sunspots, prominences and faculae in late 19th and early 20th centuries. This database is given in handwritten tabular form and was not systematically analysed earlier. It is different from the sunspot number time series made in Zurich and was obtained with a larger telescope. We trained a neural-network model for handwritten text recognition and present the database of reconstructed coordinates. The database obtained connects the earlier observations by Spörer with later programs of the 20th century and supplements the sunsp…
Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo ionization of molecular Oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and sets with the Sun and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us the deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-qualit…
The growing interest in the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" (MCA) and its possible link to anomalous solar activity has prompted new reconstructions of solar activity based on cosmogenic radionuclides. These proxies however do not sufficiently constrain the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) range, and are often defined at low temporal resolution, inadequate to infer the solar cycle length (SCL). We have reconstructed the SCL (average duration of 10.72 \pm 0.20 years) during the MCA using observations of naked-eye sunspot and aurora sightings. Thus, solar activity was most probably not exceptionally inte…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology d…
The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) is currently considered the only grand minimum within telescopic sunspot observations since 1610. During this epoch, the Sun was extremely quiet and unusually free from sunspots. However, despite reduced frequency, candidate aurorae were reported in the mid-European sector during this period and have been associated with occurrences of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), whereas some of them have been identified as misinterpretations. Here, we have analysed reports of candidate aurorae on 1 June 1680 with simultaneous observations in mid-Europe, and c…
We improve the description of the evolution of the Sun's open and total magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia. In the model employed here the evolution of the solar total and open magnetic flux is computed from the flux emerging at the solar surface in the form of bipolar magnetic features, which is related to the sunspot number cycle parameters and can be estimated from historical records. Compared to earlier versions of the model in addition to the long-lived open flux, now also a more rapidly decaying component of the open flux is considered. The model parameters are constrained…
Visible coronal structure, in particular the spatial evolution of coronal streamers, provides indirect information about solar magnetic activity and the underlying solar dynamo. Their apparent absence of structure observed during the total eclipses of throughout the Maunder Minimum has been interpreted as evidence of a significant change in the solar magnetic field from that during modern cycles. Eclipse observations available from the more recent Dalton Minimum may be able to provide further information, sunspot activity being between the levels seen during recent cycles and in the Maunder Mi…
The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant information concerning the physical mechanism underlying the cyclic magnetic activity. An underlying strictly periodic process (akin to a perfect "clock"), with the observer seeing a superposition of the perfect clock and a small random phase perturbation, leads to long-term phase stability in the observations. Such behavior would be expected if cycles were synchroniz…
Reconstruction of pretelescopic and early telescopic solar activity cycles from auroral records
ELTE Eötvös Loránd University（布达佩斯厄特沃什·罗兰大学）；Institute for Space–Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University（名古屋大学宇宙地球环境研究所）；Institute for Advanced Research, Nagoya University（名古屋大学高等研究院）；Space Physics and Operations Division, RAL Space, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory（英国科学与技术设施委员会卢瑟福阿普尔顿实验室RAL空间物理与操作部）；Astro-Glaciology Laboratory, Riken Nishina Centre（理化学研究所西村中心天体冰川学实验室）
Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we improve the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth's atmosphere, and available geom…
It is shown that correlation function of the mean wind velocity in a turbulent thermal convection (Rayleigh number $Ra \sim 10^{11}$) exhibits exponential decay with a very long correlation time, while corresponding largest Lyapunov exponent is certainly positive. These results together with the reconstructed phase portrait indicate presence of a chaotic component in the examined mean wind. Telegraph approximation is also used to study relative contribution of the chaotic and stochastic components to the mean wind fluctuations and an equilibrium between these components has been studied. Since…
Long-term forcing of Sun's coronal field, open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism
Solar activity in the past millennia can only be reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide records in terrestrial archives. However, because of the diversity of the proxy archives, it is difficult to build a homogeneous reconstruction. Here we provide a new consistent multiproxy reconstruction of the solar activity over the last 9000 years, using available long-span datasets of 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. A new method, based on a Bayesian approach, was applied for the first time to solar activity reconstruction. A Monte Carlo search for the most probable value of the modulation pote…
Characterizing the solar cycle variability using nonlinear time series analysis at different amounts of dynamo supercriticality: Solar dynamo is not highly supercritical
Magnetic activity on the young Sun: a case study of EK Draconis
Konkoly Observatory, HUN-REN Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences（孔科利天文台，HUN-REN 地球与天文学科学研究中心）；HUN-REN CSFK, MTA Centre of Excellence（HUN-REN CSFK，MTA 卓越中心）；Eötvös Loránd University, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Department of Astronomy（厄特沃什·罗兰大学，物理与天文学研究所，天文学系）
The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We…
RedDots: Magnetic field of the nearby active M dwarf GJ 729, and a search for companions
Central Queensland University（中昆士兰大学）；Centre for Astrophysics, University of Southern Queensland（南昆士兰大学天体物理中心）；Thüringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg（图林根州陶滕堡天文台）；Leiden Observatory, Leiden University（莱顿大学莱顿天文台）；IRAP, Universite de Toulouse, CNRS/UMR 5277, UPS-OMP（图卢兹大学红外天文物理研究所 (IRAP)）；Department of Physical Sciences, The Open University（开放大学物理科学系）；Institut für Astrophysik und Geophysik (IAG), Universität Göttingen（哥廷根大学天体物理学与地球物理学研究所）
