Motivated by reliability of networks in critical infrastructures, we consider optimal robustness of a class of flow networks against a \textit{targeted} attack, namely max-load targeted attack, that triggers cascading failures due to removal of largest load carrying portion of lines. The setup involves a network of $N$ lines with initial loads $L_1, \ldots, L_N$, drawn from independent and identical uniform distribution, and free-spaces or redundancies $S_1, \ldots, S_N$ to be allocated. In the failure propagation mechanism, a line fails initially due to attack and later due to overloading. The load that was carried at the moment of failing gets redistributed equally among all remaining lines in the system. We analyze robustness of this network against the max-load targeted attack that removes the largest load carrying $p$-fraction of the lines from the system. The system designer allocates $S_i$ as a stochastic function of the load in each line. Assuming an average available resource budget, we show that allocating all lines the free-spaces equally among nodes is optimal under some regulatory assumptions. We provide numerical results verifying that equal free-space allocation to all lines perform optimally in more general targeted attack scenarios.
We model smart grids as complex interdependent networks, and study targeted attacks on smart grids for the first time. A smart grid consists of two networks: the power network and the communication network, interconnected by edges. Occurrence of failures (attacks) in one network triggers failures in the other network, and propagates in cascades across the networks. Such cascading failures can result in disintegration of either (or both) of the networks. Earlier works considered only random failures. In practical situations, an attacker is more likely to compromise nodes selectively. We study c…
Recently, there has been a growing concern about the overload status of the power grid networks, and the increasing possibility of cascading failures. Many researchers have studied these networks to provide design guidelines for more robust power grids. Topological analysis is one of the components of system analysis for its robustness. This paper presents a complex systems analysis of power grid networks. First, the cascading effect has been simulated on three well known networks: the IEEE 300 bus test system, the IEEE 118 bus test system, and the WSCC 179 bus equivalent model. To extend the …
Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develo…
In social networks, the collective behavior of large populations can be shaped by a small set of influencers through a cascading process induced by "peer pressure". For large-scale networks, efficient identification of multiple influential spreaders with a linear algorithm in threshold models that exhibit a first-order transition still remains a challenging task. Here we address this issue by exploring the collective influence in general threshold models of behavior cascading. Our analysis reveals that the importance of spreaders is fixed by the subcritical paths along which cascades propagate…
We show that real multiplex networks are unexpectedly robust against targeted attacks on high degree nodes, and that hidden interlayer geometric correlations predict this robustness. Without geometric correlations, multiplexes exhibit an abrupt breakdown of mutual connectivity, even with interlayer degree correlations. With geometric correlations, we instead observe a multistep cascading process leading into a continuous transition, which apparently becomes fully continuous in the thermodynamic limit. Our results are important for the design of efficient protection strategies and of robust int…
In this paper, the multi-type branching process is applied to describe the statistics and interdependencies of line outages, the load shed, and isolated buses. The offspring mean matrix of the multi-type branching process is estimated by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and can quantify the extent of outage propagation. The joint distribution of two types of outages is estimated by the multi-type branching process via the Lagrange-Good inversion. The proposed model is tested with data generated by the AC OPA cascading simulations on the IEEE 118-bus system. The largest eigenvalues o…
The dynamics of cascading activation, such as rapid changes in public opinion and the outbreak of disease epidemics, have a crucial dependence on the connectivity patterns among the agents. We study cascading dynamics in modular, degree-heterogeneous networks, and consider the impact of intra-module seeding strategy on inter-module spread. Specifically, we establish that although activating the highest-degree nodes is more effective than random selection at growing a cascade locally, there is a critical level of inter-module connectivity required for a cascade to cross from one module to anoth…
We study the cascading failures in a system composed of two interdependent square lattice networks A and B placed on the same Cartesian plane, where each node in network A depends on a node in network B randomly chosen within a certain distance $r$ from the corresponding node in network A and vice versa. Our results suggest that percolation for small $r$ below $r_{\rm max}\approx 8$ (lattice units) is a second-order transition, and for larger $r$ is a first-order transition. For $r<r_{\rm max}$, the critical threshold increases linearly with $r$ from 0.593 at $r=0$ and reaches a maximum, 0.738…
Robustness and cascading failures in interdependent systems has been an active research field in the past decade. However, most existing works use percolation-based models where only the largest component of each network remains functional throughout the cascade. Although suitable for communication networks, this assumption fails to capture the dependencies in systems carrying a flow (e.g., power systems, road transportation networks), where cascading failures are often triggered by redistribution of flows leading to overloading of lines. Here, we consider a model consisting of systems $A$ and…
Using the linearized DC power flow model, we study cascading failures and their spatial and temporal properties in the US Western Interconnect (USWI) power grid. We also introduce the preferential Degree And Distance Attachment (DADA) model, with similar degree distributions, resistances, and currents to the USWI. We investigate the behavior of both grids resulting from the failure of a single line. We find that the DADA model and the USWI model react very similarly to that failure, and that their blackout characteristics resemble each other. In many cases, the failure of a single line can cau…
We study the robustness of flow networks against cascading failures under a partial load redistribution model. In particular, we consider a flow network of $N$ lines with initial loads $L_1, \ldots, L_N$ and free-spaces (i.e., redundant space) $S_1, \ldots, S_N$ that are independent and identically distributed with joint distribution $P_{LS}(x,y)=\mathbb{P}(L \leq x, S \leq y)$. The capacity $C_i$ is the maximum load allowed on line $i$, and is given by $C_i=L_i + S_i$. When a line fails due to overloading, it is removed from the system and $(1-\varepsilon)$-fraction of the load it was carryin…
We study how large functional networks can grow stably under possible cascading overload failures and evaluated the maximum stable network size above which even a small-scale failure would cause a fatal breakdown of the network. Employing a model of cascading failures induced by temporally fluctuating loads, the maximum stable size $n_{\text{max}}$ has been calculated as a function of the load reduction parameter $r$ that characterizes how quickly the total load is reduced during the cascade. If we reduce the total load sufficiently fast ($r\ge r_{\text{c}}$), the network can grow infinitely. …
We study the mutual percolation of a system composed of two interdependent random regular networks. We introduce a notion of distance to explore the effects of the proximity of interdependent nodes on the cascade of failures after an initial attack. We find a non-trivial relation between the nature of the transition through which the networks disintegrate and the parameters of the system, which are the degree of the nodes and the maximum distance between interdependent nodes. We explain this relation by solving the problem analytically for the relevant set of cases.
Electrical power systems are one of the most important infrastructures that support our society. However, their vulnerabilities have raised great concern recently due to several large-scale blackouts around the world. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of power systems against cascading failures initiated by a random attack. This is done under a simple yet useful model based on global and equal redistribution of load upon failures. We provide a complete understanding of system robustness by i) deriving an expression for the final system size as a function of the size of initial attac…
An adversary looking to disrupt a power grid may look to target certain substations and sources of power generation to initiate a cascading failure that maximizes the number of customers without electricity. This is particularly an important concern when the enemy has the capability to launch cyber-attacks as practical concerns (i.e. avoiding disruption of service, presence of legacy systems, etc.) may hinder security. Hence, a defender can harden the security posture at certain power stations but may lack the time and resources to do this for the entire power grid. We model a power grid as a …
Modern large network systems normally work in cooperation and incorporate dependencies between their components for purposes of efficiency and regulation. Such dependencies may become a major risk since they can cause small scale failures to propagate throughout the system. Thus, the dependent nodes could be a natural target for malicious attacks that aim to exploit these vulnerabilities. Here, we consider for the first time a new type of targeted attacks that are based on the dependency between the networks. We study strategies of attacks that range from dependency-first to dependency-last, w…
Power generation and distribution remains an important topic of discussion since the industrial revolution. As the system continues to grow, it needs to evolve both in infrastructure, robustness and its resilience to deal with failures. One such potential failure that we target in this work is the cascading failure. This avalanche effect propagates through the network and we study this propagation by Percolation Theory and implement some solutions for mitigation. We have extended the percolation theory as given in Mark Newman. Networks: an introduction,for random nodes to targeted nodes having…
Research on influence maximization has often to cope with marketing needs relating to the propagation of information towards specific users. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that the success of an information diffusion campaign might depend not only on the number of the initial influencers to be detected but also on their diversity w.r.t. the target of the campaign. Our main hypothesis is that if we learn seeds that are not only capable of influencing but also are linked to more diverse (groups of) users, then the influence triggers will be diversified as well, and hence the…
Embedding diversity into knowledge discovery tasks is of crucial importance to enhance the meaningfulness of the mined patterns with high-impact aspects related to novelty, serendipity, and ethics. Surprisingly, in the classic problem of influence maximization in social networks, relatively little study has been devoted to diversity and its integration into the objective function of an influence maximization method. In this work, we propose the integration of a side-information-based notion of seed diversity into the objective function of a targeted influence maximization problem. Starting fro…
We study the vulnerability of dominating sets against random and targeted node removals in complex networks. While small, cost-efficient dominating sets play a significant role in controllability and observability of these networks, a fixed and intact network structure is always implicitly assumed. We find that cost-efficiency of dominating sets optimized for small size alone comes at a price of being vulnerable to damage; domination in the remaining network can be severely disrupted, even if a small fraction of dominator nodes are lost. We develop two new methods for finding flexible dominati…
Recently, it was found by Schneider et al. [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 3838 (2011)], using simulations, that scale-free networks with "onion structure" are very robust against targeted high degree attacks. The onion structure is a network where nodes with almost the same degree are connected. Motivated by this work, we propose and analyze, based on analytical considerations, an onion-like candidate for a nearly optimal structure against simultaneous random and targeted high degree node attacks. The nearly optimal structure can be viewed as a hierarchically interconnected random regular g…
