Social networks contain data on both actor attributes and social connections among them. Such connections reflect the dependence among social actors, which is important for individual's mental health and social development. To investigate the potential mediation role of a social network, we propose a mediation model with a social network as a mediator. In the model, dependence among actors is accounted by a few mutually orthogonal latent dimensions. The scores on these dimensions are directly involved in the intervention process between an independent variable and a dependent variable. Because all the latent dimensions are equivalent in terms of their relationship to social networks, it is hardly to name them. The intervening effect through an individual dimension is thus of little practical interest. Therefore, we would rather focus on the mediation effect of a network. Although the scores are not unique, we rigorously articulate that the proposed network mediation effect is still well-defined. To estimate the model, we adopt a Bayesian estimation method. This modeling framework and the Bayesian estimation method is evaluated through a simulation study under representative conditions. Its usefulness is demonstrated through an empirical application to a college friendship network.
The paper considers mediation analysis with longitudinal data under latent growth curve models within a counterfactual framework. Estimators and their standard errors are derived for natural direct and indirect effects when the mediator, the outcome, and possibly also the exposure can be modeled by an underlying latent variable giving rise to a growth curve. Settings are also considered in which the exposure is instead fixed at a single point in time.
Individualized Dynamic Mediation Analysis Using Latent Factor Models
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；The University of Texas at San Antonio（圣安东尼奥德克萨斯大学）；Fudan University（复旦大学）；University of California, Santa Barbara（加利福尼亚大学圣巴巴拉分校）
Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in the real world. We develop a mediation analysis framework inferring the latent confounder for debiasing both direct and indirect causal effects. Specifically, we introduce generalized structural equation modeling that incorporates structured latent factors to improve the goodness-of-fit of the model to observed data, and deconfound the mediators and outcome …
This paper proposes a new two-stage network mediation method based on the use of a latent network approach -- model-based eigenvalue decomposition -- for analyzing social network data with nodal covariates. In the decomposition stage of the observed network, no assumption on the metric of the latent space structure is required. In the mediation stage, the most important eigenvectors of a network are used as mediators. This method further offers an innovative way for controlling for the conditional covariates and it only considers the information left in the network. We demonstrate this approac…
Causal mediation analysis is used to evaluate direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest through an intermediate variable or a mediator.It is difficult to identify the direct and indirect causal effects because the mediator cannot be randomly assigned in many real applications. In this article, we consider a causal model including latent confounders between the mediator and the outcome. We present sufficient conditions for identifying the direct and indirect effects and propose an approach for estimating them. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluat…
It is often of interest in the health and social sciences to investigate the joint mediation effects of multiple post-exposure mediating variables. Identification of such joint mediation effects generally require no unmeasured confounding of the outcome with respect to the whole set of mediators. As the number of mediators under consideration grows, this key assumption is likely to be violated as it is often infeasible to intervene on any of the mediators. In this paper, we develop a simple two-step method of moments estimation procedure to assess mediation with multiple mediators simultaneous…
Social and behavioral scientists are increasingly employing technologies such as fMRI, smartphones, and gene sequencing, which yield 'high-dimensional' datasets with more columns than rows. There is increasing interest, but little substantive theory, in the role the variables in these data play in known processes. This necessitates exploratory mediation analysis, for which structural equation modeling is the benchmark method. However, this method cannot perform mediation analysis with more variables than observations. One option is to run a series of univariate mediation models, which incorrec…
Brain functional connectome, the collection of interconnected neural circuits along functional networks, is one of the most cutting edge neuroimaging traits, and has a potential to play a mediating role within the effect pathway between an exposure and an outcome. While existing mediation analytic approaches are capable of providing insight into complex processes, they mainly focus on a univariate mediator or mediator vector, without considering network-variate mediators. To fill the methodological gap and accomplish this exciting and urgent application, in the paper, we propose an integrative…
Semiparametric Mediation Analysis with Separately Observed Mediator and Outcome under Unmeasured Confounding
Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校生物统计系）；Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health（哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院生物统计系）
Power and sample size calculations for causal mediation analysis with a binary mediator in randomized trials
Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University（丘成桐数学科学中心，清华大学）；Yanqi Lake Beijing Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Applications（北京国际数学研究中心）
University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Causal mediation analysis can unpack the black box of causality and is therefore a powerful tool for disentangling causal pathways in biomedical and social sciences, and also for evaluating machine learning fairness. To reduce bias for estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis, we propose a new method called DeepMed that uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to cross-fit the infinite-dimensional nuisance functions in the efficient influence functions. We obtain novel theoretical results that our DeepMed method (1) can achieve semiparametric efficiency bound without imposi…
Causal mediation analysis seeks to investigate how the treatment effect of an exposure on outcomes is mediated through intermediate variables. Although many applications involve longitudinal data, the existing methods are not directly applicable to settings where the mediator and outcome are measured on sparse and irregular time grids. We extend the existing causal mediation framework from a functional data analysis perspective, viewing the sparse and irregular longitudinal data as realizations of underlying smooth stochastic processes. We define causal estimands of direct and indirect effects…
Mediation analysis is one of the most widely used statistical techniques in the social, behavioral, and medical sciences. Mediation models allow to study how an independent variable affects a dependent variable indirectly through one or more intervening variables, which are called mediators. The analysis is often carried out via a series of linear regressions, in which case the indirect effects can be computed as products of coefficients from those regressions. Statistical significance of the indirect effects is typically assessed via a bootstrap test based on ordinary least-squares estimates.…
The use of causal mediation analysis to evaluate the pathways by which an exposure affects an outcome is widespread in the social and biomedical sciences. Recent advances in this area have established formal conditions for identification and estimation of natural direct and indirect effects. However, these conditions typically involve stringent no unmeasured confounding assumptions and that the mediator has been measured without error. These assumptions may fail to hold in practice where mediation methods are often applied. The goal of this paper is two-fold. First, we show that the natural in…
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）
An important problem in causal inference is to break down the total effect of a treatment on an outcome into different causal pathways and to quantify the causal effect in each pathway. For instance, in causal fairness, the total effect of being a male employee (i.e., treatment) constitutes its direct effect on annual income (i.e., outcome) and the indirect effect via the employee's occupation (i.e., mediator). Causal mediation analysis (CMA) is a formal statistical framework commonly used to reveal such underlying causal mechanisms. One major challenge of CMA in observational studies is handl…
In many medical studies, an ultimate failure event such as death is likely to be affected by the occurrence and timing of other intermediate clinical events. Both event times are subject to censoring by loss-to-follow-up but the nonterminal event may further be censored by the occurrence of the primary outcome, but not vice versa. To study the effect of an intervention on both events, the intermediate event may be viewed as a mediator, but conventional definition of direct and indirect effects is not applicable due to semi-competing risks data structure. We define three principal strata based …
The formation of social networks and the evolution of their structures have been of interest to researchers for many decades. We wish to answer questions about network stability, group formation and popularity effects. We propose a latent space model for ranked dynamic networks that can be used to intuitively frame and answer these questions. The well known data collected by Newcomb in the 1950's is very well suited to analyze the formation of a social network. We applied our model to this data in order to investigate the network stability, what groupings emerge and when they emerge, and how i…
Social network data are relational data recorded among a group of actors, interacting in different contexts. Often, the same set of actors can be characterized by multiple social relations, captured by a multidimensional network. A common situation is that of colleagues working in the same institution, whose social interactions can be defined on professional and personal levels. In addition, individuals in a network tend to interact more frequently with similar others, naturally creating communities. Latent space models for network data are useful to recover clustering of the actors, as they a…
In many application problems in social, behavioral, and economic sciences, researchers often have data on a social network among a group of individuals along with high dimensional multivariate measurements for each individual. To analyze such networked data structures, we propose a joint Attribute and Person Latent Space Model (APLSM) that summarizes information from the social network and the multiple attribute measurements in a person-attribute joint latent space. We develop a Variational Bayesian Expectation-Maximization estimation algorithm to estimate the posterior distribution of the att…
In this paper, we provide a review on both fundamentals of social networks and latent space modeling. The former discusses important topics related to network description, including vertex characteristics and network structure; whereas the latter articulates relevant advances in network modeling, including random graph models, generalized random graph models, exponential random graph models, and social space models. We discuss in detail several latent space models provided in literature, providing special attention to distance, class, and eigen models in the context of undirected, binary netwo…
We develop a broadly applicable class of coevolving latent space network with attractors (CLSNA) models, where nodes represent individual social actors assumed to lie in an unknown latent space, edges represent the presence of a specified interaction between actors, and attractors are added in the latent level to capture the notion of attractive and repulsive forces. We apply the CLSNA models to understand the dynamics of partisan polarization on social media, where we expect Republicans and Democrats to increasingly interact with their own party and disengage with the opposing party. Using lo…
This paper introduces a novel approach for modeling a set of directed, binary networks in the context of cognitive social structures (CSSs) data. We adopt a relativist approach in which no assumption is made about the existence of an underlying true network. More specifically, we rely on a generalized linear model that incorporates a bilinear structure to model transitivity effects within networks, and a hierarchical specification on the bilinear effects to borrow information across networks. This is a spatial model, in which the perception of each individual about the strength of the relation…
Group-based social dominance hierarchies are of essential interest in animal behavior research. Studies often record aggressive interactions observed over time, and models that can capture such dynamic hierarchy are therefore crucial. Traditional ranking methods summarize interactions across time, using only aggregate counts. Instead, we take advantage of the interaction timestamps, proposing a series of network point process models with latent ranks. We carefully design these models to incorporate important characteristics of animal interaction data, including the winner effect, bursting and …
Relational event data, which consist of events involving pairs of actors over time, are now commonly available at the finest of temporal resolutions. Existing continuous-time methods for modeling such data are based on point processes and directly model interaction "contagion," whereby one interaction increases the propensity of future interactions among actors, often as dictated by some latent variable structure. In this article, we present an alternative approach to using temporal-relational point process models for continuous-time event data. We characterize interactions between a pair of a…
