This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for localization of multiple sources in the event of accidental hazardous contaminant release. The framework assimilates sensor measurements of the contaminant concentration with an integrated multizone computational fluid dynamics (multizone-CFD) based contaminant fate and transport model. To ensure online tractability, the framework uses deep Gaussian process (DGP) based emulator of the multizone-CFD model. To effectively represent the transient response of the multizone-CFD model, the DGP emulator is reformulated using a matrix-variate Gaussian process prior. The resultant deep matrix-variate Gaussian process emulator (DMGPE) is used to define the likelihood of the Bayesian framework, while Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to sample from the posterior distribution. The proposed method is evaluated for single and multiple contaminant sources localization tasks modeled by CONTAM simulator in a single-story building of 30 zones, demonstrating that proposed approach accurately perform inference on locations of contaminant sources. Moreover, the DMGP emulator outperforms both GP and DGP emulator with fewer number of hyperparameters.
This paper explores a Gaussian process emulator based approach for rapid Bayesian inference of contaminant source location and characteristics in an indoor environment. In the pre-event detection stage, the proposed approach represents transient contaminant fate and transport as a random function with multivariate Gaussian process prior. Hyper-parameters of the Gaussian process prior are inferred using a set of contaminant fate and transport simulation runs obtained at predefined source locations and characteristics. This paper uses an integrated multizone-CFD model to simulate contaminant fat…
Arsenic (As) and other toxic elements contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh poses a major threat to millions of people on a daily basis. Understanding complex relationships between arsenic and other elements can provide useful insights for mitigating arsenic poisoning in drinking water and requires multivariate modeling of the elements. However, environmental monitoring of such contaminants often involves a substantial proportion of left-censored observations falling below a minimum detection limit (MDL). This problem motivates us to propose a multivariate spatial Bayesian model for left-…
The Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a key tool to assess the ecotoxicological threat of contaminant to biodiversity. It predicts safe concentrations for a contaminant in a community. Widely used, this approach suffers from several drawbacks: i)summarizing the sensitivity of each species by a single value entails a loss of valuable information about the other parameters characterizing the concentration-effect curves; ii)it does not propagate the uncertainty on the critical effect concentration into the SSD; iii)the hazardous concentration estimated with SSD only indicates the threat t…
We propose and evaluate an iterative localization mechanism employing Bayesian inference to estimate the position of a target using received signal strength measurements. The probability density functions of the target's coordinates are estimated through a Bayesian network. Herein, we consider an iterative procedure whereby our predictor (posterior distribution) is updated in a sequential order whenever new measurements are made available. The performance of the mechanism is assessed in terms of the respective root mean square error and kernel density estimation of the target coordinates. Our …
Air pollution is a serious issue that currently affects many industrial cities in the world and can cause severe illness to the population. In particular, it has been proven that extreme high levels of airborne contaminants have dangerous short-term effects on human health, in terms of increased hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and increased mortality risk. For these reasons, accurate estimation and prediction of airborne pollutant concentration is crucial. In this paper, we propose a flexible novel approach to model hourly measurements of fine particulate matter…
This paper defines a novel Bayesian inverse problem to infer an infinite-dimensional uncertain operator appearing in a differential equation, whose action on an observable state variable affects its dynamics. Inference is made tractable by parametrizing the operator using its eigendecomposition. The plausibility of operator inference in the sparse data regime is explored in terms of an uncertain, generalized diffusion operator appearing in an evolution equation for a contaminant's transport through a heterogeneous porous medium. Sparse data are augmented with prior information through the impo…
We deal with estimation of multiple dipoles from combined MEG and EEG time--series. We use a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to characterize the posterior distribution of the number of dipoles and their locations. By considering three test cases, we show that using the combined data the method can localize sources that are not easily (or not at all) visible with either of the two individual data alone. In addition, the posterior distribution from combined data exhibits a lower variance, i.e. lower uncertainty, than the posterior from single device.
We consider optimal design of PDE-based Bayesian linear inverse problems with infinite-dimensional parameters. We focus on the A-optimal design criterion, defined as the average posterior variance and quantified by the trace of the posterior covariance operator. We propose using structure exploiting randomized methods to compute the A-optimal objective function and its gradient, and provide a detailed analysis of the error for the proposed estimators. To ensure sparse and binary design vectors, we develop a novel reweighted $\ell_1$-minimization algorithm. We also introduce a modified A-optima…
We present an asymptotic analysis of the minimum probability of error (MPE) in inferring the correct hypothesis in a Bayesian multi-hypothesis testing (MHT) formalism using many pixels of data that are corrupted by signal dependent shot noise, sensor read noise, and background illumination. We perform this error analysis for a variety of combined noise and background statistics, including a pseudo-Gaussian distribution that can be employed to treat approximately the photon-counting statistics of signal and background as well as purely Gaussian sensor read-out noise and more general, exponentia…
We consider optimal design of infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations that contain secondary reducible model uncertainties, in addition to the uncertainty in the inversion parameters. By reducible uncertainties we refer to parametric uncertainties that can be reduced through parameter inference. We seek experimental designs that minimize the posterior uncertainty in the primary parameters, while accounting for the uncertainty in secondary parameters. We accomplish this by deriving a marginalized A-optimality criterion and developing an e…
We investigate the utility of coded aperture (CA) for roadside radiation threat detection applications. With coded aperture, information in the form of photon quantity is traded for directional information. Whether and in what scenarios this trade-off is beneficial is the focus of this study. We quantify the impact of a masking approach by comparing performance with an unmasked approach in terms of both detection and localization of a roadside nuclear threat. We measure performance over many instances of a drive-by scenario via Monte Carlo simulation based on empirical observations.
This report introduces a new hierarchical Bayesian model for the EEG source localization problem. This model promotes structured sparsity to search for focal brain activity. This sparsity is obtained via a multivariate Bernoulli Laplacian prior assigned to the brain activity approximating an $\ell_{20}$ pseudo norm regularization in a Bayesian framework. A partially collapsed Gibbs sampler is used to draw samples asymptotically distributed according to the posterior associated with the proposed Bayesian model. The generated samples are used to estimate the brain activity and the model hyperpar…
Background: Magneto- and Electro-encephalography record the electromagnetic field generated by neural currents with high temporal frequency and good spatial resolution, and are therefore well suited for source localization in the time and in the frequency domain. In particular, localization of the generators of neural oscillations is very important in the study of cognitive processes in the healthy and in the pathological brain. New method: We introduce the use of a Bayesian multi-dipole localization method in the frequency domain. Given the Fourier Transform of the data at one or multiple fre…
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has provided invaluable insight into our understanding of human behavior. However, large inter-individual differences in both brain anatomy and functional localization after anatomical alignment remain a major limitation in conducting group analyses and performing population-level inference. This paper addresses this problem by developing and validating a new computational technique for reducing misalignment across individuals in functional brain systems by spatially transforming each subject's functional data to a common reference map. Our proposed…
In recent years, neuroimaging has undergone a paradigm shift, moving away from the traditional brain mapping approach toward developing integrated, multivariate brain models that can predict categories of mental events. However, large interindividual differences in brain anatomy and functional localization after standard anatomical alignment remain a major limitation in performing this analysis, as it leads to feature misalignment across subjects in subsequent predictive models.
Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data the most informative possible. In a Bayesian setting this is translated to updating to the best possible posterior. Information theoretic arguments have led to the formation of the expected information gain as a design criterion. This can be evaluated mainly by Monte Carlo sampling and maximized by using stochastic approximation methods, both known for being c…
We present a detection problem where several spatially distributed sensors observe Poisson signals emitted from a single source of unknown position. The measurements at each sensor are modeled by independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes. A method based on Bayesian change-point estimation is proposed to identify the location of the source's coordinates. The asymptotic behavior of the Bayesian estimator is studied. In particular the consistency and the asymptotic efficiency of the estimator are shown. The limit distribution and the convergence of the moments are also described. The similar st…
Scientists often must simultaneously localize and discover signals. For instance, in genetic fine-mapping, high correlations between nearby genetic variants make it hard to identify the exact locations of causal variants. So the statistical task is to output as many disjoint regions containing a signal as possible, each as small as possible, while controlling false positives. Similar problems arise in any application where signals cannot be perfectly localized, such as locating stars in astronomical surveys and changepoint detection in sequential data. Common Bayesian approaches to these probl…
Tampere University（坦佩雷大学）；University of Bath（巴斯大学）
The electroencephalography (EEG) source imaging problem is very sensitive to the electrical modelling of the skull of the patient under examination. Unfortunately, the currently available EEG devices and their embedded software do not take this into account; instead, it is common to use a literature-based skull conductivity parameter. In this paper, we propose a statistical method based on the Bayesian approximation error approach to compensate for source imaging errors due to the unknown skull conductivity and, simultaneously, to compute a low-order estimate for the actual skull conductivity …
We propose a general algorithmic framework for Bayesian model selection. A spike-and-slab Laplacian prior is introduced to model the underlying structural assumption. Using the notion of effective resistance, we derive an EM-type algorithm with closed-form iterations to efficiently explore possible candidates for Bayesian model selection. The deterministic nature of the proposed algorithm makes it more scalable to large-scale and high-dimensional data sets compared with existing stochastic search algorithms. When applied to sparse linear regression, our framework recovers the EMVS algorithm [R…
Bayesian uncertainty-aware deep learning with noisy labels: Tackling annotation ambiguity in EEG seizure detection
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University（约翰霍普金斯大学电气与计算机工程系）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Boston University（波士顿大学电气与计算机工程系）
We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The approximation is improved iteratively. Some difficulties in estimating the normal mixture densities, including determining tuning parameters concerning bandwidth and localization, are addressed. The method is applicable to other model formulations as long as all the parameters, or transforms thereof, are defined on the whole real line, $(-\infty, \infty)$. Ad …
Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems …
