四旬期对婚姻和观念的影响通过一种新的方法进行了探索
The influence of Lent on marriages and conceptions explored through a new methodology
摘要：
Herteliu et al.（2015）在其他地方分析了宗教节日对罗马尼亚出生的影响。在这里，我们扩大了分析（一）通过研究的影响，大斋节的婚姻以及出生（二）通过分析一些其他国家，允许与非东正教国家进行比较。我们还介绍了一种新的方法，它处理的数据的方式，从出生和婚姻的季节性模式相关的偏见的分析。对婚姻和受孕的影响之间的比较似乎特别有意义，因为它允许评估社会压力和个人倾向的各自分量。我们的分析显示，四旬期对婚姻的影响很大，在东正教国家减少了80%，在西欧天主教和新教国家减少了40%。由于大斋节对观念的影响是独立于任何形式的直接社会控制的，人们可能会认为这种影响要小得多。按百分比计算，它对婚姻的影响大约小10倍。目前的方法开辟了道路，以准确调查的影响，其他流动的宗教时期（如斋月）对各种社会现象（如自杀）。
英文摘要：
Herteliu et al. (2015) have elsewhere analyzed the impact of religious festivals on births in Romania. Here we broaden the analysis (i) by studying the effect of Lent on marriages as well as births (ii) by analyzing a number of other countries which allows a comparison with non-Orthodox countries. We also introduce a new methodology which treats the data in a way that frees the analysis from bias related to seasonal patterns of births and marriages. The comparison between the effects on marriages and conceptions appears of particular interest for it permits to assess the respective weighs of social pressure on one hand and personal leanings on the other hand. Our analysis reveals a strong effect of Lent on marriages with a reduction by 80% in Orthodox countries and 40% in West European Catholic and Protestant countries. Since the influence of Lent on conceptions is independent of any form of direct social control one might expect the effect to be much smaller. In percentage terms it is roughly 10 times smaller than the effect on marriage. The present methodology opens the way to the accurate investigation of the impact of other mobile religious periods (e.g. Ramadan) on various social phenomena (e.g. suicide).
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