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arXiv 1802.05628astro-ph.SR
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根据日冕绿线数据在高纬度即将到来的太阳周期的前兆

Precursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data

K. Petrovay, M. Nagy, T. Gerják, L. Juhász

摘要:

在回顾了高纬度地区即将到来的太阳活动周期的潜在早期指标后,我们将注意力集中在日冕绿线发射中的冲向极点(RTTP)现象上。考虑到RTTP的属性与即将到来的太阳活动周期之间的各种相关性,我们发现RTTP的速率和时间延迟之间的相关性,直到下一个太阳活动周期的最大值。基于这种相关性和已知的太阳黑子数量序列的内部波动,我们预测,在2019年的最小值之后,第25周将在2024年底达到峰值,振幅约为130(根据平滑的每月修正太阳黑子数量)。这稍微超过了周期24的振幅,但它仍然会使周期25成为一个相当弱的周期。

英文摘要:

After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of the RTTP with the upcoming solar cycle we find a correlation between the rate of the RTTP and the time delay until the maximum of the next solar cycle. On the basis of this correlation and the known internal regularities of the sunspot number series we predict that, following a minimum in 2019, cycle 25 will peak in late 2024 at an amplitude of about 130 (in terms of smoothed monthly revised sunspot numbers). This slightly exceeds the amplitude of cycle 24 but it would still make cycle 25 a fairly weak cycle.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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