After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of the RTTP with the upcoming solar cycle we find a correlation between the rate of the RTTP and the time delay until the maximum of the next solar cycle. On the basis of this correlation and the known internal regularities of the sunspot number series we predict that, following a minimum in 2019, cycle 25 will peak in late 2024 at an amplitude of about 130 (in terms of smoothed monthly revised sunspot numbers). This slightly exceeds the amplitude of cycle 24 but it would still make cycle 25 a fairly weak cycle.
Polar Filaments Capture High Latitude Solar Poloidal Field Interactions and can Foretell the Future Sunspot Cycle Amplitude before Polar Field Precursors
The amplitude of sunspot minimum as a favorable precursor for the prediction of the amplitude of the next solar maximum and the limit of the Waldmeier effect
Cosmic Ray Inter-Station Fluctuations as Precursors of Geomagnetic Storms: Causal Baseline Analysis and Forecasting Limitations
College of Physics and Optoelectronic Engineering, Ocean University of China(中国海洋大学物理与光电工程学院);Engineering Research Center of Advanced Marine Physical Instruments and Equipment of Ministry of Education(教育部先进海洋物理仪器装备工程研究中心);Qingdao Key Laboratory of Advanced Optoelectronics(青岛先进光电学重点实验室)
Towards an algebraic method of solar cycle prediction I. Calculating the ultimate dipole contributions of individual active regions
我们讨论了潜在的使用代数方法来计算太阳的轴向偶极矩在太阳极小值,被广泛认为是在下一个太阳活动周期的活动水平的最可靠的前兆的值。该方法包括总结的最终贡献的个别活动区的太阳轴向偶极矩\revtwo{at the end of the cycle}。该方法的一个潜在的局限性是它依赖于下垫面通量输运(SFT)模式的细节。我们表明,通过分析和数值方法,有关的因素的初始和最终的偶极矩贡献的活动区域显示高斯依赖于纬度的参数,只依赖于细节的SFT模型通过参数$η/Δ_u$,其中$η$是超颗粒扩散和$Δ_u$是赤道上的纬向流的发散。在与2 $\times$二维发电机模型中模拟的周期的比较中,我们进一步证明了与代数方法相关的不准确性是轻微的,并且该方法可能能够再现大多数周期中的偶极矩值。
Impact of stellar spots on the high-resolution transmission spectra of a giant planet around a Sun-like star
Instituto de Astrofísica e Ciências do Espaço, Universidade do Porto(葡萄牙波尔图大学太空科学与天体物理研究所);Departamento de Física e Astronomia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto(葡萄牙波尔图大学理学院物理与天文系)
研究恒星斑点如何影响巨行星传输光谱中的吸收线轮廓,通过模拟不同斑点配置下的传输光谱,发现斑点大小、位置和恒星自转影响光谱畸变,Na I和Ca II K线受扰动最大,H-alpha线影响较小。
STORMY : A Real-time Triggering Framework using Yamagawa Solar Spectrograph for Active Solar Emission Observations with the MWA
National Centre for Radio Astrophysics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research(国家射电天文中心,塔塔基础研究所);University Corporation for Atmospheric Research(大气研究大学联盟);National Institute of Information and Communications Technology(信息通信技术研究机构);Curtin University(科廷大学);International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research(国际射电天文研究中心)