We present a Bayesian hierarchical inference formalism to study the relation between the properties of dark matter halos and those of their central galaxies using weak gravitational lensing. Unlike traditional methods, this technique does not resort to stacking the weak lensing signal in bins, and thus allows for a more efficient use of the information content in the data. Our method is particularly useful for constraining scaling relations between two or more galaxy properties and dark matter halo mass, and can also be used to constrain the intrinsic scatter in these scaling relations. We show that, if observational scatter is not properly accounted for, the traditional stacking method can produce biased results when exploring correlations between multiple galaxy properties and halo mass. For example, this bias can affect studies of the joint correlation between galaxy mass, halo mass, and galaxy size, or galaxy color. In contrast, our method easily and efficiently handles the intrinsic and observational scatter in multiple galaxy properties and halo mass. We test our method on mocks with varying degrees of complexity. We find that we can recover the mean halo mass and concentration, each with a $0.1$ dex accuracy, and the intrinsic scatter in halo mass with a $0.05$ dex accuracy. In its current version, our method will be most useful for studying the weak lensing signal around central galaxies in groups and clusters, as well as massive galaxies samples with $\log{M_*} > 11$, which have low satellite fractions.
The next generation of weak lensing probes can place strong constraints on cosmological parameters by measuring the mass distribution and geometry of the low redshift universe. We show that a future all-sky tomographic cosmic shear survey with design properties similar to Euclid can provide the statistical accuracy required to distinguish between different dark energy models. Using a fiducial cosmological model which includes cold dark matter, baryons, massive neutrinos (hot dark matter), a running primordial spectral index and possible spatial curvature as well as dark energy perturbations, w…
We derive an estimator of weak gravitational lensing shear from background galaxy images that avoids noise-induced biases through a rigorous Bayesian treatment of the measurement. The derived shear estimator disposes with the assignment of ellipticities to individual galaxies that is typical of previous approaches to galaxy lensing. Shear estimates from the mean of the Bayesian posterior are unbiased in the limit of large number of background galaxies, regardless of the noise level on individual galaxies. The Bayesian formalism requires a prior describing the (noiseless) distribution of the ta…
To accomplish correct Bayesian inference from weak lensing shear data requires a complete statistical description of the data. The natural framework to do this is a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, which divides the chain of reasoning into component steps. Starting with a catalogue of shear estimates in tomographic bins, we build a model that allows us to sample simultaneously from the the underlying tomographic shear fields and the relevant power spectra (E-mode, B-mode, and E-B, for auto- and cross-power spectra). The procedure deals easily with masked data and intrinsic alignments. Using Gibbs …
The search for primordial gravitational waves in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) will soon be limited by our ability to remove the lensing contamination to $B$-mode polarization. The often-used quadratic estimator for lensing is known to be suboptimal for surveys that are currently operating and will continue to become less and less efficient as instrumental noise decreases. While foregrounds can in principle be mitigated by observing in more frequency bands, progress in delensing hinges entirely on algorithmic advances. We demonstrate here a new inference method that solves this problem…
A likelihood-based method for measuring weak gravitational lensing shear in deep galaxy surveys is described and applied to the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). CFHTLenS comprises 154 sq deg of multicolour optical data from the CFHT Legacy Survey, with lensing measurements being made in the i' band to a depth i'(AB)<24.7, for galaxies with signal-to-noise ratio greater than about 10. The method is based on the lensfit algorithm described in earlier papers, but here we describe a full analysis pipeline that takes into account the properties of real surveys. The m…
We present an analysis of observations made with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) of six galaxy clusters in a redshift range of 0.16--0.41. The cluster gas is modelled using the Sunyaev--Zel'dovich (SZ) data provided by AMI, while the total mass is modelled using the lensing data from the CFHT. In this paper, we: i) find very good agreement between SZ measurements (assuming large-scale virialisation and a gas-fraction prior) and lensing measurements of the total cluster masses out to r_200; ii) perform the first multiple-component weak-lensin…
Current sky surveys have been conducted very accurately in order to understand our universe. One of the phenomena survey maps provide is gravitational effect. Albert Einstein (1936) first discussed the possibilities of gravitational lensing effects based on his theory of general relativity, which might give us some information about cosmology. We often categorize the effects by micro, weak, and strong lensing types. This paper focuses on the strong gravitational lensing, especially the double-source plane lens systems. It was recently recognized that the double lensing events can provide us wi…
Hierarchical cosmological constraints through strong lensing distance ratio
National Centre for Nuclear Research（国家核研究中心）；School of Physics and Astronomy, Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学物理学院）；Institute for Frontiers in Astronomy and Astrophysics, Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学天文与前沿科学研究院）
Weak gravitational lensing is one of the few direct methods to map the dark-matter distribution on large scales in the Universe, and to estimate cosmological parameters. We study a Bayesian inference problem where the data covariance $\mathbf{C}$, estimated from a number $n_{\textrm{s}}$ of numerical simulations, is singular. In a cosmological context of large-scale structure observations, the creation of a large number of such $N$-body simulations is often prohibitively expensive. Inference based on a likelihood function often includes a precision matrix, $Ψ= \mathbf{C}^{-1}$. The covariance …
We present a Bayesian reconstruction algorithm that infers the three-dimensional large-scale matter distribution from the weak gravitational lensing effects measured in the image shapes of galaxies. The algorithm is designed to also work with non-Gaussian posterior distributions which arise, for example, from a non-Gaussian prior distribution. In this work, we use a lognormal prior and compare the reconstruction results to a Gaussian prior in a suite of increasingly realistic tests on mock data. We find that in cases of high noise levels (i.e. for low source galaxy densities and/or high shape …
We perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg$^2$ of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 $μ$K-arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly sub-optimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the…
The Planck satellite, along with several ground based telescopes, have mapped the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise so as to allow a detection of the subtle distortions due to the gravitational influence of the intervening matter distribution. A natural modeling approach is to write a Bayesian hierarchical model for the lensed CMB in terms of the unlensed CMB and the lensing potential. So far there has been no feasible algorithm for inferring the posterior distribution of the lensing potential from the lensed CMB map. We propose a solution that allo…
Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We…
Lensing by galaxy clusters is a versatile probe of cosmology and extragalactic astrophysics, but the accuracy of some of its predictions is limited by the simplified models adopted to reduce the (otherwise untractable) number of degrees of freedom. We aim at cluster lensing models where the parameters of all cluster-member galaxies are free to vary around some common scaling relations with non-zero scatter, and deviate significantly from them if and only if the data require it. We have devised a Bayesian hierarchical inference framework, which enables the determination of all lensing parameter…
We investigate the performance of a simple Bayesian fitting approach to correct the cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization for gravitational lensing effects in the recovered probability distribution of the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We perform a two-dimensional power spectrum fit of the amplitude of the primordial B-modes (tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$) and the amplitude of the lensing B-modes (parameter $A_{lens}$), jointly with the estimation of the astrophysical foregrounds including both synchrotron and thermal dust emissions. Using this Bayesian framework, we forecast the abilit…
We directly construct model-independent mass profiles of galaxy clusters from combined weak-lensing distortion and magnification measurements within a Bayesian statistical framework,which allows for a full parameter-space extraction of the underlying signal. This method applies to the full range of radius outside the Einstein radius, and recovers the absolute mass normalization. We apply our method to deep Subaru imaging of five high-mass (>10^{15}M_{sun}) clusters, A1689, A1703, A370, Cl0024+17, and RXJ1347-11, to obtain accurate profiles to beyond the virial radius (r_{vir}). For each cluste…
We develop the first algorithm able to jointly compute the maximum {\it a posteriori} estimate of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature and polarization fields, the gravitational potential by which they are lensed, and cosmological parameters such as the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$. This is an important step towards sampling from the joint posterior probability function of these quantities, which, assuming Gaussianity of the CMB fields and lensing potential, contains all available cosmological information and would yield theoretically optimal constraints. Attaining such optimal con…
A hierarchical Bayesian method is applied to the analysis of Type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) observations to constrain the properties of the dark matter haloes of galaxies along the SNIa lines-of-sight via their gravitational lensing effect. The full joint posterior distribution of the dark matter halo parameters is explored using the nested sampling algorithm {\sc MultiNest}, which also efficiently calculates the Bayesian evidence, thereby facilitating robust model comparison. We first demonstrate the capabilities of the method by applying it to realistic simulated SNIa data, based on the real 3-ye…
The Bayesian gravitational shear estimation algorithm developed by Bernstein and Armstrong (2014) can potentially be used to overcome multiplicative noise bias and recover shear using very low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) galaxy images. In that work the authors confirmed the method is nearly unbiased in a simplified demonstration, but no test was performed on images with realistic pixel noise. Here I present a full implementation for fitting models to galaxy images, including the effects of a point spread function (PSF) and pixelization. I tested the implementation using simulated galaxy images…
Weak lensing convergence maps - upon which higher order statistics can be calculated - can be recovered from observations of the shear field by solving the lensing inverse problem. For typical surveys this inverse problem is ill-posed (often seriously) leading to substantial uncertainty on the recovered convergence maps. In this paper we propose novel methods for quantifying the Bayesian uncertainty in the location of recovered features and the uncertainty in the cumulative peak statistic - the peak count as a function of signal to noise ratio (SNR). We adopt the sparse hierarchical Bayesian m…
More than $200$ quasars have been detected so far at $z > 6$, with only one showing clear signs of strong gravitational lensing. Some studies call for a missing population of lensed high-$z$ quasars, but their existence is still in doubt. A large fraction of high-$z$ quasars being lensed would have a significant effect on the shape of the intrinsic quasar luminosity function (QLF). Here, we perform the first systematic search for lensed X-ray-detected quasars at $z \gtrsim 6$ employing a Bayesian analysis, with the code BAYMAX, to look for morphological evidence of multiple images that may esc…
Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology（卡夫利粒子天体物理与宇宙学研究所）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory（SLAC国家加速器实验室）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Niels Bohr Institute（尼尔斯·玻尔研究所）；University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）
We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ($κ$) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight. The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the "external convergence" ($κ_{\rm ext}$) from the lens environment and line of sight is necessary for precise inference of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). Starting from a large-scale simulation with a $κ$ resolution of $\sim$1$'$, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy-galaxy lensing scales of $\sim$1$''$ and extract…
We present a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to infer the cosmic matter density field, and the lensing and the matter power spectra, from cosmic shear data. This method uses a physical model of cosmic structure formation to infer physically plausible cosmic structures, which accounts for the non-Gaussian features of the gravitationally evolved matter distribution and light-cone effects. We test and validate our framework with realistic simulated shear data, demonstrating that the method recovers the unbiased matter distribution and the correct lensing and matter power spectrum. While …
ZwCl 2341.1+0000, a merging galaxy cluster with disturbed X-ray morphology and widely separated ($\sim$3 Mpc) double radio relics, was thought to be an extremely massive ($10-30 \times 10^{14} M_\odot$) and complex system with little known about its merger history. We present JVLA 2-4 GHz observations of the cluster, along with new spectroscopy from our Keck/DEIMOS survey, and apply Gaussian Mixture Modeling to the three-dimensional distribution of 227 confirmed cluster galaxies. After adopting the Bayesian Information Criterion to avoid overfitting, which we discover can bias total dynamical …
Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology（卡弗里粒子天体物理与宇宙学研究所）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory（SLAC国家加速器实验室）
In the past few years, approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have demonstrated the ability to produce statistically consistent posteriors on a wide range of inference problems at unprecedented speed and scale. However, any disconnect between training sets and the distribution of real-world objects can introduce bias when BNNs are applied to data. This is a common challenge in astrophysics and cosmology, where the unknown distribution of objects in our Universe is often the science goal. In this work, we incorporate BNNs with flexible posterior parameterizations into a hierarchical infere…
