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arXiv 1709.09467math.OC
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分段确定马尔可夫过程的变点检测

Change-point detection for Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

Alice Cleynen, Benoîte de Saporta

摘要:

我们考虑一类简单的分段确定马尔可夫过程(PDMP)的变点检测问题。在离散时间和噪声中观察到连续时间的Pynomial,目的是提出一种数值方法,以准确地检测动力学变化的日期和变化后的新政权。要做到这一点,我们国家的问题作为一个最优停止问题的部分观察离散时间马尔可夫决策过程在一个连续的状态空间的值,并提供了一个离散化的状态空间的基础上量化近似的值函数,并建立一个易于处理的停止策略。我们提供了近似值函数的误差界和数值模拟,以评估我们的候选政策的性能。

英文摘要:

We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to accurately detect both the date of the change of dynamics and the new regime after the change. To do so, we state the problem as an optimal stopping problem for a partially observed discrete-time Markov decision process taking values in a continuous state space and provide a discretization of the state space based on quantization to approximate the value function and build a tractable stopping policy. We provide error bounds for the approximation of the value function and numerical simulations to assess the performance of our candidate policy.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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