威斯康星州的党派不公正划分
Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin
摘要:
我们研究的程度gerrymandering为2010年大会区地图威斯康星州。我们发现,有很大的变化,在选举结果取决于什么地图使用。我们还发现了强有力的证据表明,地区地图是高度gerrymandered,这种gerrymandering可能改变了威斯康星州大会在一些选举中的党派构成。与大会可能的重新划分计划的分布相比,威斯康星州选择的计划是一个离群值,因为当全州民主党选票的比例超过总选票的50-52%时,它产生的结果高度偏向共和党(精确的门槛取决于考虑的选举)。威斯康星州的计划通过提供额外的共和党席位来保持共和党的多数席位,即使民主党的选票增加到权力平衡将为绝大多数选区重新划分计划而改变的范围。
英文摘要:
We examine the extent of gerrymandering for the 2010 General Assembly district map of Wisconsin. We find that there is substantial variability in the election outcome depending on what maps are used. We also found robust evidence that the district maps are highly gerrymandered and that this gerrymandering likely altered the partisan make up of the Wisconsin General Assembly in some elections. Compared to the distribution of possible redistricting plans for the General Assembly, Wisconsin's chosen plan is an outlier in that it yields results that are highly skewed to the Republicans when the statewide proportion of Democratic votes comprises more than 50-52% of the overall vote (with the precise threshold depending on the election considered). Wisconsin's plan acts to preserve the Republican majority by providing extra Republican seats even when the Democratic vote increases into the range when the balance of power would shift for the vast majority of redistricting plans.
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