改变经济和人口研究的方向
Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research
AI总结：
本文提出一种简单的反向值方法，用于分析超几何分布，揭示传统理论的错误前提，并指出人口和经济增长轨迹并非由停滞或技术爆炸所主导。
摘要：
一种简单但有用的反向值方法被引入、解释和演示。该方法简化了超几何分布的分析，这些分布在人口和经济研究中造成严重问题。它使超几何分布得以唯一识别，并揭示更复杂轨迹的组成部分。通过几个例子说明，该方法表明人口和经济研究的基本公理与数据矛盾，即使使用相同数据也是如此。通常接受的公理基于对超几何分布的错误理解，这些分布描述了人口和经济历史增长。特别是，用于统一增长理论制定但未分析的数据表明，该理论基于根本错误的前提，因此是根本缺陷的。应用这种方法指出了人口和经济研究的新方向，提出了更简单的增长机制解释。过去原始和艰难的生活条件的概念或证据未被质疑，仅证明过去的人口和经济增长轨迹未反映任何停滞，因此未由这些原始条件塑造。技术、医学、教育和改善生活条件的爆炸概念也未被质疑，仅证明这种可能的爆炸未反映在经济增长和人口增长轨迹中。
英文摘要：
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It allows for a unique identification of hyperbolic distributions and for unravelling components of more complicated trajectories. This method is illustrated by a few examples. They show that fundamental postulates of the demographic and economic research are contradicted by data, even by precisely the same data, which are used in this research. The generally accepted postulates are based on the incorrect understanding of hyperbolic distributions, which characterise the historical growth of population and the historical economic growth. In particular, data used, but never analysed, during the formulation of the Unified Growth Theory show that this theory is based on fundamentally incorrect premises and thus is fundamentally defective. Application of this simple method of analysis points to new directions in the demographic and economic research. It suggests simpler interpretations of the mechanism of growth. The concept or the evidence of the past primitive and difficult living conditions, which might be perhaps described as some kind of stagnation, is not questioned or disputed. It is only demonstrated that trajectories of the past economic growth and of the growth of population were not reflecting any form of stagnation and thus that they were not shaped by these primitive and difficult living conditions. The concept or evidence of an explosion in technology, medicine, education and in the improved living conditions is not questioned or disputed. It is only demonstrated that this possible explosion is not reflected in the trajectories of the economic growth and of the growth of population.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
