马尔萨斯陷阱中的东非？对金融、经济和人口指标的统计分析
East africa in the Malthusian trap? A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators
摘要：
作者对金融、经济和人口指标进行的统计分析表明：（1）东非的主要国家（2）这些国家不太可能遵循“北非道路”，在生育率转型取得重大成功之前实现这一逃脱;（3）如果东非不走“孟加拉国的道路”，在可预见的未来不实现真正大幅度的生育率下降，就不可能实现这种逃脱，这意味着引入义务普及中学教育，卢旺达式的认真的计划生育计划，以及在父母同意下提高法定结婚年龄。当然，这些措施应该伴随着农业劳动生产率的大幅提高和农业就业人口比例的下降。
英文摘要：
A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators performed by the authors demonstrates (1) that the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian Trap yet; (2) that this countries are not likely to follow the "North African path" and to achieve this escape before they achieve serious successes in their fertility transition; (3) that East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the "Bangladeshi path" and does not achieve really substantial fertility declines in the foreseeable future, which would imply the introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family planning programs of the Rwandan type, and the rise of legal age of marriage with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the substantial increases in the agricultural labor productivity and the decline of the percentage of population employed in agriculture.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
