发现东非的工业机会
Discovering East Africa's Industrial Opportunities
摘要：
东非的工业机会是什么？在这篇文章中，我们探索这个问题，通过使用产品空间来研究五个东南非洲国家的生产结构：肯尼亚，莫桑比克，卢旺达，坦桑尼亚和赞比亚。产品空间是一个网络，连接往往由同一组国家出口的产品。由于各国更有可能开发产品空间中与其已经生产的产品接近的产品，因此产品空间可用于帮助预测一国的工业机会。我们的研究结果表明，这五个东南非洲国家未来产品多样化的最自然途径是农业部门，因为所有这些国家似乎都有预先适应许多农产品生产的生产结构，而这些农产品目前都没有出口。最后，我们探讨了进一步的区域经济一体化的潜在好处，通过做一个练习，我们拉在一起，这五个国家的生产结构。这项工作表明，在联合经济中变得更容易获得的产品再次主要是农业产品。这些结果表明，虽然所有部门的多样化仍应是该区域的一个重要长期目标，但在不久的将来，实现进一步多样化的途径很可能在于加强农业部门的权能和多样化。
英文摘要：
What are East Africa's industrial opportunities? In this article we explore this question by using the Product Space to study the productive structure of five south-east African countries: Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia. The Product Space is a network connecting products that tend to be exported by the same sets of countries. Since countries are more likely to develop products that are close by in the Product Space to the ones that they already produce, the Product Space can be used to help anticipate a country's industrial opportunities. Our results suggest that the most natural avenue for future product diversification for these five south-east African nations resides in the agricultural sector, since all of these nations appear to have productive structures that are pre-adapted to the production of many agricultural products that none of them are currently exporting. We conclude this paper by exploring the potential benefits of further regional economic integration by doing an exercise in which we pull together the productive structures of these five countries. This exercise shows that the products that become more accessible in the combined economy are once again predominantly agricultural. These results suggest that while diversification into all sectors should remain an important long-term goal of the region, the path towards increased diversification in the near future may well lie in a more empowered and diverse agricultural sector.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
