从噪音中分离信号：老年死亡率减速的证据
Separating the signal from the noise: Evidence for deceleration in old-age death rates
摘要：
普遍的人口老龄化使得了解老年死亡率变得至关重要。然而，研究老年人的死亡率具有挑战性，因为数据稀少：随着年龄的增长，幸存者和死亡人数越来越少。我们展示了如何通过使用原则性的模型选择技术来经验性地评估理论死亡率模型来应对这一挑战。我们测试了九种不同的老年死亡率理论模型，将它们拟合到360个关于80岁以上队列死亡率的高质量数据集。考虑到死亡率可能下降的模型往往比假设死亡率呈指数增长的模型拟合得更好。没有一个单一的模型能够普遍解释观察到的老年死亡率模式，但对数二次模型最一致的预测。模型拟合的模式因国家和性别而异;我们讨论了可能的机制，包括样本量、时期效应和区域或文化因素，这些因素可能是理解老年死亡率模式的重要关键。我们引入了一个免费的R包，使研究人员能够将我们的分析扩展到其他模型，年龄范围和数据源。
英文摘要：
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We show how to address this challenge by using principled model selection techniques to empirically evaluate theoretical mortality models. We test nine different theoretical models of old-age death rates by fitting them to 360 high-quality datasets on cohort mortality above age 80. Models that allow for the possibility of decelerating death rates tend to fit better than models that assume exponentially increasing death rates. No single model is capable of universally explaining observed old-age mortality patterns, but the Log-Quadratic model most consistently predicts well. Patterns of model fit differ by country and sex; we discuss possible mechanisms, including sample size, period effects, and regional or cultural factors that may be important keys to understanding patterns of old-age mortality. We introduce a freely available R package that enables researchers to extend our analysis to other models, age ranges, and data sources.
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