重新安排，而非重新定义：老年死亡率的移动平台期
Rescheduled, not redefined: The moving plateau of old-age mortality
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究针对极高年龄死亡率趋势的百年争议，利用12个低死亡率队列数据发现死亡率平台期随出生队列后移，解释了过往研究分歧源于取样阶段不同，提出死亡率平台期无固定年龄的核心结论。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
死亡风险在极高年龄是持续上升还是趋于平稳，一个世纪以来一直困扰着研究者。我们表明，这种分歧反映了一个移动目标。利用12个低死亡率人群的队列数据，我们发现从19世纪中期到20世纪初出生的各队列中，死亡率减速及平台期开始的时间稳步后移。数据支持整个队列范围存在平台期，尽管对观测不完全的最年轻队列的证据较弱。在这些较年轻队列中，减速始于100岁附近，拟合的平台期始于108岁之后。由于过往研究聚焦于不同队列和固定年龄范围，它们取样了同一转变的不同阶段。死亡率平台期没有固定年龄：它已被重新安排。
英文摘要
Whether the risk of death keeps climbing at extreme ages or levels off has divided researchers for a century. We show this conflict reflects a moving target. Using cohort data from twelve low-mortality populations, we find that mortality deceleration and plateau onset shift steadily later across cohorts born from the mid-19th to the early-20th century. The data support a plateau across the full cohort range, though evidence weakens for the youngest, incompletely observed cohorts. In these younger cohorts, deceleration begins near age 100, and the fitted plateau begins beyond age 108. Because past studies focused on different cohorts and fixed age ranges, they sampled different phases of the exact same shift. The mortality plateau has no fixed age: it has been rescheduled.
发表机构
- Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark（人口动态跨学科中心，南丹麦大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
