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arXiv 1707.03213cs.LG
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DeepTrend:用于交通流预测的深度分层神经网络

DeepTrend: A Deep Hierarchical Neural Network for Traffic Flow Prediction

Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences(中国科学院自动化研究所);University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(中国科学院大学);Tsinghua University(清华大学)

Xingyuan Dai, Rui Fu, Yilun Lin, Li Li, Fei-Yue Wang

摘要:

本文考虑交通流时间序列中的时间模式,实现了一种用于交通流预测的深度学习模型。基于去趋势的方法将原始流量序列分解为趋势序列和残差序列,其中趋势描述了流量的固定时间模式,残差序列用于预测。受去趋势方法的启发,我们提出了DeepTrend,一种用于交通流预测的深层神经网络,它考虑并提取时变趋势。DeepTrend有两个堆叠层:提取层和预测层。提取层是一个全连通层,通过将原始流量序列与相应的简单平均趋势序列串联起来,提取流量的时变趋势。预测层是一个LSTM层,用于通过从提取层的输出和计算的残差序列中提供所获得的趋势来进行流量预测。为了使模型更有效,DeepTrend首先需要逐层进行预训练,然后在整个网络中进行微调。实验表明,与一些传统的预测模型和基于去趋势方法的LSTM相比,DeepTrend可以显着提高预测性能。

英文摘要:

In this paper, we consider the temporal pattern in traffic flow time series, and implement a deep learning model for traffic flow prediction. Detrending based methods decompose original flow series into trend and residual series, in which trend describes the fixed temporal pattern in traffic flow and residual series is used for prediction. Inspired by the detrending method, we propose DeepTrend, a deep hierarchical neural network used for traffic flow prediction which considers and extracts the time-variant trend. DeepTrend has two stacked layers: extraction layer and prediction layer. Extraction layer, a fully connected layer, is used to extract the time-variant trend in traffic flow by feeding the original flow series concatenated with corresponding simple average trend series. Prediction layer, an LSTM layer, is used to make flow prediction by feeding the obtained trend from the output of extraction layer and calculated residual series. To make the model more effective, DeepTrend needs first pre-trained layer-by-layer and then fine-tuned in the entire network. Experiments show that DeepTrend can noticeably boost the prediction performance compared with some traditional prediction models and LSTM with detrending based methods.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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