(abridged) We develop Bayesian methods and detection criteria for orbital fitting, and revise the detectability of exoplanets in light of the in-flight properties of Gaia. Limiting ourselves to one-planet systems as a first step of the development, we simulate Gaia data for exoplanet systems over a grid of S/N, orbital period, and eccentricity. The simulations are then fit using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We investigate the detection rate according to three information criteria and the delta chi^2. For the delta chi^2, the effective number of degrees of freedom depends on the mission length. We find that the choice of the Markov chain starting point can affect the quality of the results; we therefore consider two limit possibilities: an ideal case, and a very simple method that finds the starting point assuming circular orbits. Using Jeffreys' scale of evidence, the fraction of false positives passing a strong evidence criterion is < ~0.2% (0.6%) when considering a 5 yr (10 yr) mission and using the Akaike information criterion or the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion, and <0.02% (<0.06%) when using the Bayesian information criterion. We find that there is a 50% chance of detecting a planet with a minimum S/N=2.3 (1.7). This sets the maximum distance to which a planet is detectable to ~70 pc and ~3.5 pc for a Jupiter-mass and Neptune-mass planet, respectively, assuming a 10 yr mission, a 4 au semi-major axis, and a 1 M_sun star. The period is the orbital parameter that can be determined with the best accuracy, with a median relative difference between input and output periods of 4.2% (2.9%) assuming a 5 yr (10 yr) mission. The median accuracy of the semi-major axis of the orbit can be recovered with a median relative error of 7% (6%). The eccentricity can also be recovered with a median absolute accuracy of 0.07 (0.06).
Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2) includes milliarcsecond-accuracy astrometry for 14,099 asteroids. We explore the practical impact of this data for the purpose of asteroid mass and orbit estimation by estimating the masses individually for four large asteroids. We use various combinations of Gaia astrometry and/or Earth-based astrometry so as to determine the impact of Gaia on the estimated masses. By utilizing published information about estimated volumes and meteorite analogs, we also derive estimates for bulk densities and macroporosities. We apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for a…
The wealth of information in the Gaia catalogue of exoplanets will constitute a fundamental contribution to several hot topics of the astrophysics of planetary systems. I briefly review the potential impact of Gaia micro-arsec astrometry in several areas of exoplanet science, discuss what key follow-up observations might be required as a complement to Gaia data, and shed some light on the role of next generation astrometric facilities in the arena of planetary systems.
The power of micro-arcsecond ($μ$as) astrometry is about to be unleashed. ESA's Gaia mission, now headed towards the end of the first year of routine science operations, will soon fulfil its promise for revolutionary science in countless aspects of Galactic astronomy and astrophysics. The potential of Gaia position measurements for important contributions to the astrophysics of planetary systems is huge. We focus here on the expectations for detection and improved characterization of 'young' planetary systems in the neighborhood of the Sun using a combination of Gaia $μ$as astrometry and direc…
Scope of this contribution is twofold. First, it describes the potential of the global astrometry mission Gaia for detecting and measuring planetary systems based on detailed double-blind mode simulations and on the most recent predictions of the satellite's astrometric payload performances (launch is foreseen for late Summer 2012). Then, the identified capabilities are put in context by highlighting the contribution that the Gaia exoplanet discoveries will be able to bring to the science of extrasolar planets of the next decade.
Astrometric positions of moving objects in the Solar System have been measured using a variety of star catalogs in the past. Previous work has shown that systematic errors in star catalogs can affect the accuracy of astrometric observations. That, in turn, can influence the resulting orbit fits for minor planets. In order to quantify these systematic errors, we compare the positions and proper motion of stellar sources in the most utilized star catalogs to the second release of the Gaia star catalog. The accuracy of Gaia astrometry allows us to unambiguously identify local biases and derive a …
Because of the recent technological advances, the key technologies needed for precision space optical astrometry are now in hand. The Microarcsecond Astrometry Probe (MAP) mission concept is designed to find 1 Earth mass planets at 1AU orbit (scaled to solar luminosity) around the nearest ~90 FGK stars. The MAP payload includes i) a single three-mirror anastigmatic telescope with a 1-m primary mirror and metrology subsystems, and ii) a camera. The camera focal plane consists of 42 detectors, providing a Nyquist sampled FOV of 0.4-deg. Its metrology subsystems ensure that MAP can achieve the 0.…
Context: The space telescope Gaia is dedicated mainly to performing high-precision astrometry, but also spectroscopy and epoch photometry which can be used to study various types of photometric variability. One such variability type is exoplanetary transits. The photometric data accumulated so far have finally matured enough to allow the detection of some exoplanets. Aims: In order to fully exploit the scientific potential of Gaia, we search its photometric data for the signatures of exoplanetary transits. Methods: The search relies on a version of the Box-Least-Square (BLS) method, applied to…
Context: Stellar occultations, greatly enhanced by the publication of the Gaia data releases, permit not only the determination of asteroid size and shape, but also the retrieval of additional, accurate astrometry, with a possible relevant impact on the study of dynamical properties. The use of Gaia as reference catalogue and the recent implementation of an improved error model for occultation astrometry offer the opportunity to test its global astrometric performance on the existing data set of observed events, dominated by minor planets belonging to the main belt. Aims: We aim to explore the…
Gaia is an astrometric mission that will be launched in spring 2013. There are many scientific outcomes from this mission and as far as our Solar System is concerned, the satellite will be able to map thousands of main belt asteroids (MBAs) and near-Earth objects (NEOs) down to magnitude < 20. The high precision astrometry (0.3-5 mas of accuracy) will allow orbital improvement, mass determination, and a better accuracy in the prediction and ephemerides of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs). We give in this paper some simulation tests to analyse the impact of Gaia data on known asteroids' o…
In its all-sky survey, Gaia will monitor astrometrically hundreds of thousands of main-sequence stars within $\approx200$ pc, looking for the presence of giant planetary companions within a few AUs from their host stars. Indeed, Gaia observations will have great impact is the astrophysics of planetary systems (e.g., Casertano et al. 2008), in particular when seen as a complement to other techniques for planet detection and characterization (e.g., Sozzetti 2011). In this paper, I briefly address some of the relevant technical issues associated with the precise and accurate determination of astr…
The Gaia Data Release 1 (GDR1) is a first, important step on the path of evolution of astrometric accuracy towards a much improved situation. Although asteroids are not present in GDR1, this intermediate release already impacts asteroid astrometry. Our goal is to investigate how the GDR1 can change the approach to a few typical problems, including the determination of orbits from short-arc astrometry, the exploitation of stellar occultations, and the impact risk assessment. We employ optimised asteroid orbit determination tools, and study the resulting orbit accuracy and post-fit residuals. Fo…
In the second paper of this series we perfected our method of linking high precision Hubble Space Telescope astrometry to the high-accuracy Gaia DR2 absolute reference system to overcome the limitations of relative astrometry with narrow-field cameras. Our test case here is the Y brown dwarf WISE J163940.83-684738.6, observed at different epochs spread over a 6-yr time baseline with the Infra-Red channel of the Wide Field Camera 3. We derived significantly improved astrometric parameters compared to previous determinations, finding: (mu_RAcosDc,mu_DC,parallax) = (577.21+/-0.24mas/yr,-3108.39+/…
The ESA global astrometry space mission Gaia has been monitoring the position of a billion stars since 2014. The analysis of such a massive dataset is challenging in terms of the data processing involved. In particular, the blind detection and characterization of single or multiple companions to stars (planets, brown dwarfs, or stars) using Gaia astrometry requires highly efficient algorithms. In this article, we present a set of analytical methods to detect and characterize companions in scanning space astrometric time series as well as via a combination of astrometric and radial velocity tim…
The class of transiting cold Jupiters, orbiting at $\gtrsim0.5-1.0$ au, is to-date underpopulated. Probing their atmospheric composition and physical characteristics is particularly valuable, as it allows for direct comparisons with the Solar System giant planets. We investigate some aspects of the synergy between Gaia astrometry and other ground-based and space-borne programs for detection and characterization of such companions. We carry out numerical simulations of Gaia observations of systems with one cold transiting gas giant, using Jovian planets around a sample of nearby low-mass stars …
In its all-sky survey, the ESA global astrometry mission Gaia will perform high-precision astrometry and photometry for 1 billion stars down to $V = 20$ mag. The data collected in the Gaia catalogue, to be published by the end of the next decade, will likely revolutionize our understanding of many aspects of stellar and Galactic astrophysics. One of the relevant areas in which the Gaia observations will have great impact is the astrophysics of planetary systems. This summary focuses on a) the complex technical problems related to and challenges inherent in correctly modelling the signals of pl…
A Planetary Illusion's Funeral: Non-detection of a Gaia DR3 Exoplanet Candidate, and the Role of Intermediate-precision Radial Velocities in Gaia Exoplanet Follow-up
Centre for Astrophysics, University of Southern Queensland（南昆士兰大学天体物理中心）；Max Planck Institute for Astronomy（马克斯·普朗克天文学研究所）；Center for Astrophysics, Harvard & Smithsonian（哈佛-史密森尼天体物理中心）
Distant objects in the solar system are crucial to better understand the history and evolution of its outskirts. The stellar occultation technique allows the determination of their sizes and shapes with kilometric accuracy, a detailed investigation of their immediate vicinities, as well as the detection of tenuous atmospheres. The prediction of such events is a key point in this study, and yet accurate enough predictions are available to a handful of objects only. In this work, we briefly discuss the dramatic impact that both the astrometry from the Gaia space mission and the deep sky surveys …
The orbits of binary stars and planets, particularly eccentricities and inclinations, encode the angular momentum within these systems. Within stellar multiple systems, the magnitude and (mis)alignment of angular momentum vectors among stars, disks, and planets probes the complex dynamical processes guiding their formation and evolution. The accuracy of the \textit{Gaia} catalog can be exploited to enable comparison of binary orbits with known planet or disk inclinations without costly long-term astrometric campaigns. We show that \textit{Gaia} astrometry can place meaningful limits on orbital…
Future missions like Roman, HabEx, and LUVOIR will directly image exoplanets in reflected light. While current near infrared direct imaging searches are only sensitive to young, self-luminous planets whose brightness is independent of their orbital phase, reflected light imaging will reveal changes in planet brightness over the course of an orbit due to phase variations. One of the first objectives will be determining the planet's orbit via astrometry, the projected position of the planet with respect to its host star in the sky plane. We show that phase variations can significantly improve th…
We used 1,477,047 data from DR1-TGAS, in order to analyse the minimum require- ments of accuracy, necessary to detect sub-stellar objects in the astrometric mea- surements of Gaia. We found that the first set of data (DR1) does not have enough accuracy, so sub-stellar objects can not be easily detected. Barely, it would be possible to detect jovian and higher mass objects, with orbital periods over 5 years. We made the calculations of the minimum values of the astrometric angle produced by an or- biting sub-stellar object using a range of different masses. We estimate the efficiency and effect…
Jointly Modeling Roman Coronagraph Astrometry and Photometry Improves Orbital Parameter Estimates
Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA), Northwestern University（西北大学跨学科天体物理探索与研究中心）；Department of Physics and Engineering, University of St. Thomas（圣托马斯大学物理与工程系）；Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁斯分校天文与天体物理系）
Searching for Habitable Exoplanets with Relative Astrometry (SHERA). I. The Case for Searching for Planets in Binary Star Systems
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（喷气推进实验室，加州理工学院）；Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University（新墨西哥州立大学天文学系）；Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学天文学系和斯图尔德天文台）；Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校天文学系）；NASA Ames Research Center（NASA艾姆斯研究中心）；Leiden Observatory（莱顿天文台）
One field containing WISE J154151.65-225024.9 was observed by Hubble Space Telescope at three different epochs taken in ~5 yrs. We measured positions of sources in all images and successfully linked these positions to the Gaia DR2 absolute system to derive the astrometric parameters for this faint close-by Y1 brown dwarf. The developed procedure avoids traditional limitations of relative imaging-astrometry with narrow-field cameras, extending Gaia DR2 to fainter magnitudes. We found (mu_RA,mu_d,parallax) = (-902.62+/-0.35mas/yr, -88.26+/-0.35mas/yr,168.4+/-2.2mas), which represent a sizable im…
Predicting Gaia astrometry's ability to constrain the populations of circumbinary planets
School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学物理与天文学学院）；Tsung-Dao Lee Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交大李政道研究所）；European Space Agency (ESA), European Space Astronomy Centre (ESAC)（欧洲空间局（ESA），欧洲空间天文中心（ESAC））
Several attempts have been made in the past to assess the expected number of exoplanetary transits that the Gaia space mission will detect. In this Letter we use the updated design of Gaia and its expected performance, and apply recent empirical statistical procedures to provide a new assessment. Depending on the extent of the follow-up effort that will be devoted, we expect Gaia to detect a few hundreds to a few thousands transiting exoplanets.
Bayesian analysis of Gaia epoch astrometry and radial velocities with kima
Tsung-Dao Lee Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交大李政道研究所）；School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学物理与天文学院）；Observatoire Astronomique de l’Université de Genève（日内瓦大学天文台）
The extensive timespan of modern radial velocity surveys has made the discovery of long-period substellar companions more common in recent years, however measuring the true masses of these objects remains challenging. Astrometry from the Gaia mission is expected to provide mass measurements for many of these long-period companions, but this data is not yet available. However, combining proper motion data from Gaia DR2 and the earlier Hipparcos mission makes it possible to measure true masses of substellar companions in favourable cases. In this work, we combine radial velocities with Hipparcos…
Finding Habitable Exoplanets with Binary Relative Astrometry: Planet Detection and Characterization with the Microarcsecond Astrometric Retrieval Algorithm (MARA)
New Mexico State University（新墨西哥州立大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；NASA Ames Research Center（美国国家航空航天局艾姆斯研究中心）；University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学）
The potential existence of a giant planet orbiting within a few AU of a stellar remnant has profound implications for both the survival and possible regeneration of planets during post-main sequence stellar evolution. This paper reports Hubble Space Telescope Fine Guidance Sensor and U.S. Naval Observatory relative astrometry of GD 66, a white dwarf thought to harbor a giant planet between 2 and 3 AU based on stellar pulsation arrival times. Combined with existing infrared data, the precision measurements here rule out all stellar-mass and brown dwarf companions, implying that only a planet re…
Context: The current sample of known brown dwarfs (BDs) around FGK-stars is only of the order of a hundred. The ongoing ESA mission Gaia has already collected its nominal 5 yr of mission data and might operate up to 10 yr. Aims: Using detailed simulations, we estimate the number of BDs that could be discovered by Gaia astrometry, radial velocity, and photometric transits around main sequence (V) and subgiants (IV) FGK host stars for a 5 and 10-yr mission. Methods: Using a robust $Δχ^2$ statistic we analyse the BD companion detectability from the Besançon Galaxy population synthesis model compl…
A pilot study on the CSST astrometric capability: Detecting astrometric binaries with Gaia synergy via simulated data
Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院上海天文台）；School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学天文与空间科学学院）
The era of high-precision astrometry has dawned upon us. The potential of Gaia $μ$as-level precision in positional measurements is about to be unleashed in the field of extrasolar planetary systems. The Gaia data hold the promise for much improved global characterization of planetary systems around stars of all types, ages, and chemical composition, particularly when synergistically combined with other indirect and direct planet detection and characterization programs.
The search for extrasolar planets has developed rapidly and, today, more than 1700 planets have been found orbiting stars. Thanks to Gaia, we will collect high-accuracy astrometric orbits of thousands of new low-mass celestial objects, such as extra-solar planets and brown dwarfs. These measurements in combination with spectroscopy and with present day and future extrasolar planet search programs (like HARPS, ESPRESSO) will have a crucial contribution to several aspects of planetary astrophysics (formation theories, dynamical evolution, etc.). Moreover, Gaia will have a strong contribution on …
To fully constrain the orbits of low mass circumstellar companions, we conduct combined analyses of the radial velocity data as well as the Gaia and Hipparcos astrometric data for eight nearby systems. Our study shows that companion-induced position and proper motion differences between Gaia and Hipparcos are significant enough to constrain orbits of low mass companions to a precision comparable with previous combined analyses of direct imaging and radial velocity data. We find that our method is robust to whether we use Gaia DR2 or Gaia EDR3, as well as whether we use all of the data, or just…
In a previous paper we presented the Directed Follow-Up (DFU) approach, which we suggested can be used to efficiently augment low-cadence photometric surveys in a way that will optimize the chances to detect transiting exoplanets. In this paper we present preliminary tests of applying the DFU approach to the future ESA space mission Gaia. We demonstrate the strategy application to Gaia photometry through a few simulated cases of known transiting planets, using Gaia expected performance and current design. We show that despite the low cadence observations DFU, when tailored for Gaia's scanning …
In this paper we develop a differential astrometric framework that is appropriate for a scanning space satellite such as Gaia. We apply it to the first of the GAREQ fields, which is the fruit of dedicated efforts within the Gaia project focused on measuring the relativistic deflection of light close to Jupiter's limb. This provides a preliminary assessment of: a) the observability of the relativistic deflection of light close to Jupiter, and, b) Gaia's astrometric capabilities under extremely difficult conditions such as those around a bright extended object. Inputs to our differential astrome…
True Masses using RV data with Hipparcos and Gaia Astrometry
INAF – Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo（意大利国家天体物理研究所巴勒莫天文台）；Dipartimento di Fisica e Chimica, Università degli Studi di Palermo（巴勒莫大学物理与化学系）；INAF – Osservatorio Astrofisico di Torino（意大利国家天体物理研究所都灵天文台）；Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Torino（都灵大学物理系）
Context: Occultations of stars by asteroids are an efficient method to study the properties of minor bodies, and can be exploited as tools to derive very precise asteroid astrometry relative to the target star. With the availability of stellar astrometry thanks to the ESA mission Gaia, the frequency of good predictions and the quality of the astrometry have been strongly enhanced. Aims: Our goal is to evaluate the astrometric performance of a systematic exploitation of stellar occultations, with a homogeneous data set and a given instrument setup. As a reference instrument, we adopt the exampl…
Aims. With an observing time span of more than 20 years, the CORALIE radial-velocity survey is able to detect long-term trends in data corresponding to companions with masses and separations accessible to direct imaging. Combining exoplanet detection techniques such as radial velocities from the CORALIE survey, astrometric accelerations from Hipparcos and Gaia eDR3, and relative astrometry from direct imaging, removes the degeneracy of unknown orbital parameters. This allows precise model-independent masses of detected companions to be derived, which provides a powerful tool to test models of …
The formation of giant planets is best studied through direct imaging by observing planets both during and after formation. Giant planets are expected to form either by core accretion, which is typically associated with low initial entropy (cold-start models) or by gravitational instability, which corresponds to a high initial entropy of the gas (hot-start models). Thus, constraining the initial entropy provides insight into the planet formation mechanism and determines the resultant brightness evolution. We find that, by observing planets in nearby moving groups of known age both through dire…
Closeby Habitable Exoplanet Survey (CHES). IV. Synergy between astrometry and direct imaging missions of the Habitable World Observatory for detecting Earth-like planets
Mass-dependent multiplicity fraction in low mass stars revealed by Gaia astrometry
Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie（马克斯·普朗克天文学研究所）；Fakultät für Physik und Astronomie, Universität Heidelberg（海德堡大学物理与天文学院）；Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院天文学系）
The ability to make independent detections of the signatures of exoplanets with complementary telescopes and instruments brings a new potential for robust identification of exoplanets and precision characterization. We introduce PEXO, a package for Precise EXOplanetology to facilitate the efficient modeling of timing, astrometry, and radial velocity data, which will benefit not only exoplanet science but also various astrophysical studies in general. PEXO is general enough to account for binary motion and stellar reflex motions induced by planetary companions and is precise enough to treat var…
We provide a revised assessment of the number of exoplanets that should be discovered by Gaia astrometry, extending previous studies to a broader range of spectral types, distances, and magnitudes. Our assessment is based on a large representative sample of host stars from the TRILEGAL Galaxy population synthesis model, recent estimates of the exoplanet frequency distributions as a function of stellar type, and detailed simulation of the Gaia observations using the updated instrument performance and scanning law. We use two approaches to estimate detectable planetary systems: one based on the …
The third Gaia data release includes a catalog of exoplanets and exoplanet candidates identified via the star's astrometric motion. This paper reports on tests for consistency between the Gaia two-body orbital solutions and precise Doppler velocities, for the stars currently amenable to such a comparison. For BD 17-0063, HD 81040, and HD 132406, the Gaia orbital solution and the Doppler data were found to be consistent, and were fitted jointly to obtain the best possible constraints on the planets' orbits and masses. Inconsistencies were found for 4 stars: HD 111232, probably due to additional…
51 Eri b is one of the only young planets consistent with a wide range of possible initial entropy states, including the cold-start scenario associated with some models of planet formation by core accretion. The most direct way to constrain the initial entropy of a planet is by measuring its luminosity and mass at a sufficiently young age that the initial conditions still matter. We present the tightest upper limit on 51 Eri b's mass yet (M < 11 Mjup at 2$σ$) using a cross-calibration of Hipparcos and Gaia EDR3 astrometry and the orbit-fitting code orvara. We also reassess its luminosity using…
We present new observations of the planet beta Pictoris b from 2018 with GPI, the first GPI observations following conjunction. Based on these new measurements, we perform a joint orbit fit to the available relative astrometry from ground-based imaging, the Hipparcos Intermediate Astrometric Data (IAD), and the Gaia DR2 position, and demonstrate how to incorporate the IAD into direct imaging orbit fits. We find a mass consistent with predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and previous works following similar methods, though with larger uncertainties: 12.8 [+5.3, -3.2] M_Jup. Our eccentri…
