arXiv 1702.028762017-02-08q-bio.PE

疾病周期在传染病流行中的作用

The role of disease cycles in the endemicity of infectious diseases

Esteban Vargas, Camilo Sanabria

摘要：

具有宿主循环的病媒传播疾病很难理解，因为新的感染来自病媒与人类和不同宿主的接触。在这种情况下，不包括水库的系统的基本再生数$\mathcal{R}^h_0$可能小于1，但地方病平衡被观察到。事实上，当水库重新考虑，基本再生数$\mathcal{R}_0^r$，只有载体和水库，解释了地方病的状态。此外，水库循环与一个小的基本再生数可能有助于达到地方病状态的人类循环。因此，在控制疾病传播时，仅仅关注特定的水库循环或仅关注病媒是不够的。在这项工作中，我们创建了一个简单的流行病学模型与网络的水库，其中$\mathcal{R}_0^r$是一个分叉参数的系统，解释疾病的地方性在没有一个强大的水库循环。这个简单的模型可能有助于解释南美锥虫病、利什曼病和登革热等疾病的传播动力学。

英文摘要：

Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the system where the reservoirs are not included could turn out to be less than one, yet, an endemic equilibrium be observed. Indeed, when the reservoirs are taken back into account, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}_0^r$, of only vectors and reservoirs, explains the endemic state. Furthermore, reservoirs cycles with a small basic reproductive number could contribute to reach an endemic state in the human cycle. Therefore, when controlling for the spread of a disease, it could not be enough to focus on specific reservoir cycles or only on the vector. In this work, we created a simple epidemiological model with a network of reservoirs where $\mathcal{R}_0^r$ is a bifurcation parameter of the system, explaining disease endemicity in the absence of a strong reservoir cycle. This simple model may help to explain transmission dynamics of diseases such as Chagas, Leishmaniasis and Dengue.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。

摘要：

英文摘要：

相关论文