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arXiv 1702.02686stat.MLcs.LGstat.ME
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缺失协变量的高维回归率最优估计及其置信区间

Rate Optimal Estimation and Confidence Intervals for High-dimensional Regression with Missing Covariates

Carnegie Mellon University(卡内基梅隆大学);University of Chicago(芝加哥大学)

Yining Wang, Jialei Wang, Sivaraman Balakrishnan, Aarti Singh

摘要:

虽然大多数高维统计学的理论文献都集中在涉及完全观测数据的设置上,但在实践中,缺失值和腐败的设置是常见的。考虑了稀疏高维线性回归模型中设计矩阵的协变量完全随机缺失完全随机缺失时的估计和构造置信区间的问题。我们分析了Dantzig选择器[9]的一个变体来估计回归模型,并使用去偏参数来构建分量置信区间。我们的第一个主要结果是建立上界的估计误差作为模型参数的函数(稀疏水平s,预期的分数观测协变量$ρ_*$,和测量的信号强度$\|β^*\|_2$)。我们发现,即使在一个理想化的设置,协变量被假定为完全随机缺失,有点令人惊讶的是,在完全观察到的设置相反,有一个二分法的依赖模型参数和更快的速度,如果随机设计的协方差阵是已知的。为了进一步研究这个问题,我们的第二个主要贡献是提供下限的估计误差表明,这种差异率是不可避免的极大极小意义上。然后,我们考虑的问题,高维推理存在缺失数据。我们构造和分析置信区间使用去偏估计。在存在缺失数据的情况下,由于去偏矩阵与导频估计器相关的事实,推断变得复杂,并且这需要设计新的估计器和新的分析。我们还补充了我们的数学研究与广泛的模拟合成和半合成的数据,显示我们的渐近预测有限的样本量的准确性。

英文摘要:

Although a majority of the theoretical literature in high-dimensional statistics has focused on settings which involve fully-observed data, settings with missing values and corruptions are common in practice. We consider the problems of estimation and of constructing component-wise confidence intervals in a sparse high-dimensional linear regression model when some covariates of the design matrix are missing completely at random. We analyze a variant of the Dantzig selector [9] for estimating the regression model and we use a de-biasing argument to construct component-wise confidence intervals. Our first main result is to establish upper bounds on the estimation error as a function of the model parameters (the sparsity level s, the expected fraction of observed covariates $ρ_*$, and a measure of the signal strength $\|β^*\|_2$). We find that even in an idealized setting where the covariates are assumed to be missing completely at random, somewhat surprisingly and in contrast to the fully-observed setting, there is a dichotomy in the dependence on model parameters and much faster rates are obtained if the covariance matrix of the random design is known. To study this issue further, our second main contribution is to provide lower bounds on the estimation error showing that this discrepancy in rates is unavoidable in a minimax sense. We then consider the problem of high-dimensional inference in the presence of missing data. We construct and analyze confidence intervals using a de-biased estimator. In the presence of missing data, inference is complicated by the fact that the de-biasing matrix is correlated with the pilot estimator and this necessitates the design of a new estimator and a novel analysis. We also complement our mathematical study with extensive simulations on synthetic and semi-synthetic data that show the accuracy of our asymptotic predictions for finite sample sizes.

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