为什么玻尔兹曼大脑是坏的
Why Boltzmann Brains Are Bad
摘要：
一些现代宇宙学模型预测了玻尔兹曼脑的出现：观察者随机地从热浴中波动出来，而不是从低熵的大爆炸中自然演化出来。大多数观察者都是玻尔兹曼脑类型的理论通常被认为是不可接受的，尽管意见不同。我认为，这样的理论确实是不可接受的：真正的问题是与波动的观察员谁是本地相同的普通观察员，他们的存在不能扫地毯下的概率分布的选择观察员。问题不在于数据排除了这种观察者的存在，而在于预测它们的理论在认知上是不稳定的：它们不可能同时是真实的，也不可能同时被人相信。
英文摘要：
Some modern cosmological models predict the appearance of Boltzmann Brains: observers who randomly fluctuate out of a thermal bath rather than naturally evolving from a low-entropy Big Bang. A theory in which most observers are of the Boltzmann Brain type is generally thought to be unacceptable, although opinions differ. I argue that such theories are indeed unacceptable: the real problem is with fluctuations into observers who are locally identical to ordinary observers, and their existence cannot be swept under the rug by a choice of probability distributions over observers. The issue is not that the existence of such observers is ruled out by data, but that the theories that predict them are cognitively unstable: they cannot simultaneously be true and justifiably believed.
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