模块化推动疫情复发
Modularity promotes epidemic recurrence
摘要:
传染病过程的长期演变在很大程度上取决于接触网络的结构。经验证据表明,人类群体表现出强大的社区组织,我们在这里调查如何影响这种介观配置的流行病复发的可能性。通过对真实社交网络的数值模拟和使用谱方法的理论论证,我们证明了高度传染性的疾病,否则会迅速消失,可以无限期地持续接触网络中的模块化的最佳范围。
英文摘要:
The long-term evolution of epidemic processes depends crucially on the structure of contact networks. As empirical evidence indicates that human populations exhibit strong community organization, we investigate here how such mesoscopic configurations affect the likelihood of epidemic recurrence. Through numerical simulations on real social networks and theoretical arguments using spectral methods, we demonstrate that highly contagious diseases that would have otherwise died out rapidly can persist indefinitely for an optimal range of modularity in contact networks.
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